Top 5 NBA Betting Picks for Friday, July 31st
The NBA is back! We had an exciting two game slate yesterday, but are now set for a complete set of action tonight. There will be some games that are more intriguing than others from a viewing perspective, but every contest offers some form of appeal for bettors. With a handful of games to choose from we have some interesting best bet options tonight.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for July 31st, 2020 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook). You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
Get a Risk-Free first bet up to $500 at BetMGM >>
Caris LeVert over 23.5 points (-115)
Caris LeVert, fire at will. With the Brooklyn Nets being down not only the injured Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but opt-outs like Spencer Dinwiddie, Deandre Jordan, Taurean Prince, and Wilson Chandler, LeVert will likely take over as the team’s number one option. The Nets signed Jamal Crawford to help with the scoring load during the seeding games and the first round of the playoffs, but this should be LeVert’s show. Joe Harris and Jarrett Allen are still healthy and will be asked to log heavy minutes. Players like LeVert should even be allowed to play through any potential foul trouble due to the pure dearth of talent with the Nets in Orlando. The juice on this prop sits considerably higher at other sportsbooks, giving this line at BetMGM instant value. Not only is the juice higher at rival books, but we can find the number at 23.5 instead of 22.5, making the over an instant multi-unit play. Lock this one in before BetMGM changes the line.
Jayson Tatum over 22.5 points (-118)
Jayson Tatum started to emerge as a legitimate star prior to the shutdown and will be looking to pick up where he left off in today’s contest against the Milwaukee Bucks. He scored 23 or more points in seven of his nine contests prior to the shutdown. He was extremely hot during those nine games, eclipsing 27 points in six straight contests. Tatum faced off against Milwaukee twice this season, scoring 25 points in one contest, but managing just .400 shooting for 17 points in the second game. Tatum is a different animal altogether at this point in his development and should be leaned on once again for the Boston Celtics. He may not hoist up 20 shots, but hitting 23 points should not be an issue. The juice is on the over for this prop due to the favorable probability that Tatum indeed scores at least 23. This is something we see across all the books, not just at BetMGM. Lock this one in before the juice rises.
Rui Hachimura over 15.5 points (-105)
With both Bradley Beal and David Bertans ruled out for the restart, Rui Hachimura may very well be the Washington Wizards’ most talented active player. Given a full complement of minutes with all of the extra usage he will be afforded, he seems like a very good bet to hit 16 or more points. The number is a little higher than one would like, which has caused the early money to be on the under. However, from a roster perspective, there is a legitimate possibility that Rui gets close to 20 shot attempts. Rui has hit 16 points in just 34.14 percent of his contests, but our affinity has more to do with the flashes he showed with a healthy roster, and his projected production now that the Wizards are down their top two scorers (Rui is third on the team). He has been better than many expected for the Wizards this season, and should really start to thrive now that he is the defacto number one option. Strangely enough, the juice is not only on the under for this prop, but the line has been set higher elsewhere. While I do not want to get giddy and suggest a multi-unit play on this prop as well, that will be the route I will be taking.
DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points (+100)
DeMar DeRozan is someone we rode with during his hot streak this season, so BettingPros readers should know him well. For those that need a refresher, DeRozan looked like the all-star caliber player he was as a member of the Toronto Raptors at points this season. He has scored just 22.3 points per game on the season, but that number is expected to take a serious uptick with LaMarcus Aldridge ruled out for the bubble. DeRozan has been efficient from the field with Aldridge around but may press a little bit more now that his dynamic duo partner is sidelined. However, he should be good for at least an extra five shots per game, a number that could climb as high as seven playing a faster pace against the Sacramento Kings. DeRozan has not been great against the Kings this season, but as mentioned this over play is all about the extra opportunity coming his way as the no-doubt top healthy option. The number is actually set higher at BetMGM than at other books, but that could just be because more sharp money comes in at a book owned by a brick and mortar operator like MGM. The juice is firmly on the over elsewhere, and it may only be a matter of time before those lines follow suit and are moved to 22.5. Regardless, if BetMGM is your preferred book, like it is for us for tonight’s contests, the over at even money is still the play.
Orlando Magic moneyline (-286)
Just think of this as a baseball line. Suffering heavy juice in a true point spread sport like basketball is often a tough sell, but the win probability does not get much higher for odds under -300. Orlando won both games against a healthy Nets team (and also covered), and unless they choose to play down to their competition, should be in for a cakewalk against a decimated Brooklyn Nets team. As alluded to above, the Nets have exactly three starting-caliber players on their roster and have zero bench depth to speak of. The Orlando Magic, on the other hand, are back to full strength with Jonathan Issac returning from injury, and Markelle Fultz back in the bubble from an excused absence, and cleared to play. This should be an easy win for the Magic. Don’t overthink this one, lay as many units as you are comfortable with.
View the top deposit bonuses and promo codes for each sportsbook >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.