Top 5 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, August 3rd
The NBA is back! We had an exciting slate yesterday, but we might have some even more exciting matchups today. We entered last night at 10-5 on the season, and we now sit at 14-6 after an exciting 4-1 day. The bubble has been extremely good to us so far, so here’s hoping that the hot picks continue.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 3rd, 2020 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook). You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Lakers first half (-208)
After getting embarrassed by the defending champion Toronto Raptors, LeBron James and Anthony Davis should start this contest on fire. Los Angeles won both of their contests against Utah this season, and they covered in each, but -6 is a little heavy for how they’ve played during the restart. Not only did they struggle to defeat a Clippers team that lacked Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams, but they also fell to the Toronto Raptors.
Utah is a top-12 team based on opposing field goal percentage, but we need to context those numbers. They allow their opponents to shoot a whopping .490 from the floor, a percentage that simply will not get it done against the better teams in the league. For context, in the Lakers’ loss to the Raptors, they shot just .354 from the field, and they still managed to keep the game competitive heading into the fourth quarter (where they were blown out 35-22).
Los Angeles is the clear better team in this contest, and they have also been the better first-half team. Utah allows fewer points per first half, but that’s more a function of them playing at a slower pace with less overall scoring. Los Angeles has averaged 58.8 points per first half (fifth in the league). On the other hand, Utah averages 54.5 points per game in the first half (23rd). The juice here is probably high enough that most will want to cap bets at one unit, but for those with the stomach to gamble, I suggest a two-unit play. We will stick with the first half as a pick here, but the full game moneyline at one unit is also viable.
Thomas Bryant over 17.5 points (+100)
Admittedly, this is a knee-jerk prop play, so feel free to choose some of the other props we have listed here. Thomas Bryant exploded for 30 points on 12-20 shooting yesterday, with his younger teammates consistently looking for him in the paint. It’s important not to overreact to one game, especially when that game was against a decimated Brooklyn Nets team. That said, 20 shots is still 20 shots, and it’s hard to see that as a fluke. Connect on all 10 shots in a miraculous night? Fine. But 20 shots is a function of being a featured piece on offense, and this expanded role may be here to stay.
Rui Hachimura is now getting extra defensive attention. With the Wizards down their top two scorers in Bradley Beal and David Bertans, they must learn to function with their third-leading scorer bottled up and being treated as the team’s top option. The lack of supporting data and the juice sitting on the under forces us to keep this to a one-unit play, but this is still a highly intriguing prop despite the gargantuanly high number.
Jaren Jackson over 2.5 made threes (-148)
As I mentioned last time that Jaren Jackson Jr. made it to this column, he’s going to be a star. He exploded for 33 points in his first game in the bubble, and he followed up on that with a 21-point performance yesterday against the San Antonio Spurs. I was hoping to attack the point total, but the books keep pushing the number (now at 18.5). With the decreased win probability staring us in the face, I explored the rebound and assist props. Jackson is usually an under bet for rebounds, but he’s simply too talented to fade on the glass.
That said, the three-point prop carries some appeal. While 2.5 threes made is high, it’s a number that Jaren Jackson should hit. He made just two threes (out of five attempts) in his last contest, but he opened the bubble by shooting 15 threes (a career high tying), and he hit six of them for a .400 night from deep.
Against the New Orleans Pelicans, the Grizzlies will have to give JJJ the green light. New Orleans has dropped to a tie for 11th place, but the Trail Blazers and Spurs are threatening for the eighth seed in the West. And that’s not just in a play-in scenario — they could outright take over the spot. Thought improbable prior to the bubble, the Grizzlies are going to have to play with playoff intensity to avoid falling to the Hornets to prevent the Spurs from coming within one game of eighth place.
JJJ is averaging three three-pointers made per game since the All-Star break, and he hit three bombs from deep against the Pelicans earlier this season. The juice is higher than one would like, so I suggest that you either stick to a one-unit return or use one unit for a partial-return play.
DeMar DeRozan over 6.5 assists (-106)
I initially planned to suggest both points over and assists over as plays. However, we’re not chasing percentages; we’re hoping to give readers multiple options to choose from. So I’ll simply mention that the points over is a play.
DeRozan has taken a step back on the offensive end, as he has started to defer to his younger teammates. However, as mentioned yesterday, the Spurs suddenly find themselves are closing in on the eighth seed. DeRozan has put up 17 assists in his bubble contests (10 and 7, for an average of 8.5), and he should be good for another high assist night. Like yesterday, this line was set perfectly, as six is the magic number DeRozan is expected to hit. It’s just a question of if he gets that seventh assist or if he stays under at six.
The juice on this prop suggests that the under has been the more popular play, but DeRozan had seven assists last game. That was despite having three teammates shoot .333 or less from the field. A better shooting night against the 76ers should allow DeRozan to surpass 6.5 assists. The Grizzlies are statistically a better defensive team than the 76ers based on opponent field goal percentage, but the difference is negligible. Keep this as a one-unit play.
Derrick White over 14.5 points (-110)
Derrick White has had a coming-out party in the bubble. With LaMarcus Aldridge injured and DeMar DeRozan deferring to his younger teammates, Derrick White has looked like a steal at the end of the first round. Averaging just 10.7 points per game on the season, White has put up 26 and 16 points in his first two bubble games. He is firing away from deep, but he has also been aggressive in getting to the line. That’s a facet of his game that should help propel him to at least 15 points against the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans are not a great defensive team, as .498 from the field is bad enough to suggest that they have no business being in the playoff mix. The Spurs have gone from going through the motions to being the favorite to lock up the ninth (and perhaps even the eighth) seed, and they should come out firing in this contest. The backcourt defense from Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball keeps this from being a smash play, so keep it to one unit at BetMGM.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.