Top 5 NBA Betting Picks for Saturday, August 8th

The NBA is back! We had an exciting slate yesterday but may be blessed with even more exciting matchups today. We sit at 17-8 on the season and will be going with a prop heavy lineup after a couple of upsets resulted in a 2-3 night the last time I discussed picks in this space. The bubble has been extremely good to us so far, here’s hoping the hot picks continue. 

Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 8th, 2020 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook). You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.

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Jusuf Nurkic over 18.5 points (-120)
Jusuf Nurkic has been on fire in the bubble. Scoring at least 18 points in each game, he has averaged an exciting 22 points per game. The Portland Trail Blazers have proven to be a much better team when Nurkic is healthy. This has sent Hassan Whiteside to the bench and into a minor role, as Nurkic has logged an average of over 31 minutes per game since his season debut. He has looked incredible despite playing his first game of the season in the bubble opener against Memphis. No Kawhi Leonard means all Portland players should have an easier time hitting their overs in this afternoon’s contest. Lock Nurkic in before the line rises at BetMGM. 

Damian Lillard assists over 8.5 (+105)
Damian Lillard over 8.5 assists became a lot more appealing upon receiving news that Los Angeles Clippers superstar Kawhi Leonard has been ruled out for this afternoon’s contest. Lillard has recorded at least nine assists in three of his four bubble games and hit eight assists in the other contest. He is averaging 11.25 assists per game in the bubble, a number that explains why this prop has heavy juice on the over at other books. BetMGM is also one of the more interesting books to find lines at as they have their own bricks and mortar operation that sometimes dictates their line movement in direct opposition to what the online-focused books are putting out. As mentioned, Kawhi being out is a boon for this prop as all of Lillard’s teammates should have better games from the field without the best defender in the NBA on the floor. Jusuf Nurkic is the other major factor in why this prop looks so attractive, as the ‘Bosnian Beast’ has been a game-changer for the Blazers on offense. Take Lillard over for one unit. 

Carmelo Anthony over 1.5 threes (-120)
With no Kawhi Leonard to hold Carmelo Anthony in check, the future Hall of Famer should be good for at least two triples this afternoon. Melo has hit at least two three-pointers in three of his four contests in the bubble and should be able to exploit an undermanned Clippers team enough to sink at least two from long distance against them. He has shot at least .500 from deep in each of his bubble contests, efficiency that gives us hope even if he takes just a handful of shots from deep. This is not the sexiest prop but is one with a high enough win probability to make today’s cut. 

Michael Porter Jr. over 20.5 points (-122)
The line here at BetMGM shows us how far Micheal Porter Jr. has come in such a short time. Always one of the most talented prospects to hit the NBA in the last several years, MPJ is finally healthy enough to show the world what he really has. The national stage of the NBA bubble has helped him come to the forefront of discussions, but that also means that the books have adjusted quicker to his phenomenal play in terms of line setting. He will have a tough road against the top 10 scoring defense of the Utah Jazz but has certainly proved that he can fill it up when he is given extended minutes. Perhaps the best kept secret in the NBA prior to his breakout, Porter Jr. still projects as a value at 20.5 points. Hold off on punching this one until prior to game time, as it is preferred to get an accurate picture of which Nuggets will be ruled out of tonight’s contest. As long as two of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, or Will Barton are out, Porter should retain a large enough role to hit this number with relative ease. 

T.J. Warren over <22.5 points (not yet listed)
T.J. Warren came back to earth against the Phoenix Suns and Mikal Bridges defense. This evening he will face off against a Los Angeles Lakers team that will be welcoming LeBron James back to the lineup. Los Angeles has the number two scoring defense in the league in points per game against, and the number three defense in terms of opponent field goal percentage. This prop still has not been listed at the books (I waited until the last minute in hopes of providing you the line), as both Los Angeles and Indiana have key players questionable that could cause the books to take major hits if they are ruled out after the lines were already on the board. I like the Warren over for any number above 22.5 points. He was averaging an insane 39.7 points on a .653 shooting line that included an even more incredible .609 from deep in his first three games before Bridges held him to 16 points and 11 rebounds on a putrid .350 shooting. Punch him in if his line comes in under 23 points at BetMGM. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.