Top 5 NBA Betting Picks for Sunday, August 9th

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The NBA is back! We had an exciting five-game slate yesterday, and with the seeding contests winding down, we should be blessed with even more exciting matchups today. We entered last night 17-8 on the season and now sit at 19-11 after a disappointing 2-3 day. The bubble has still been extremely good to us so far; here’s hoping the hot picks continue. 

Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 9, 2020. Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.

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Thomas Bryant over 18.5 points (+100)

• 19 or more points in four of five bubble contests
• 15.8 shots per game
• 50.6% shooting from the field
• Thunder Number eight scoring defense 
• Steven Adams ruled out
• Thunder allow opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field

Though he has not been discussed as much, former second-round pick Thomas Bryant has been one of the bubble’s revelations. After scoring 19 or more points just five times all season prior to the shutdown, Bryant has stepped up as the Wizards’ top scoring option. Averaging 20.2 points per game since the re-start, Bryant has poured in 19 or more points in four of five games.

He has a tough matchup on paper against an Oklahoma City Thunder team that has allowed the eighth-fewest points per game. The Thunder are one of the better defensive teams in the league when healthy, but they will have a difficult time containing the rangy big man without Steven Adams who has been ruled out for this afternoon’s contest. Despite hitting an average of two three-pointers per game, Bryant is shooting an impressive 50.6% from the field. Oklahoma City allows an exploitable 48.4% shooting to their opponents. Bryant should be able to hit 20 points with ease, providing he matches or exceeds his recent shot volume and does not go completely cold from the field. 

Derrick White over 17.5 points (+100)

• -128 on the under
• 20 or more points in four of five bubble contests
• 21.8 PPG in the bubble
• 13.6 shots per game
• 47.0% shooting
• Pelicans the fourth-worst scoring defense, allow opponents to shoot 49,8% from the field

Derrick White has also been a breakout player in the bubble. After scoring 20 or more points just three times prior to the shutdown, White has cracked the 20-point barrier in four of five contests since the restart. Averaging 21.8 points per game on 47.0% shooting, White has hoisted up 13.8 shots per game.

The juice is on the under here, presumably because of Lonzo Ball and Jrue Holiday being viewed as plus defenders. However, the Pelicans have the fourth-worst defense in terms of opposing points per game, and opponents have shot a robust 49.8% from the field on the season. White will not be a 20-point-per-game scorer if DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge are both back next season, but he’s currently one of the Spurs’ top options on offense. Tap White for a one-unit play. 

DeMar DeRozan over 22.5 points (-111)

• 22.0 PPG on the season
• Under in three of five contests
• Taken 11 or fewer shots in three of five contests
• 20 points vs. Pelicans earlier this season

While my initial lean is on the over, the numbers suggest the under may be where the value lies. Although the line is set at 22.5, DeRozan has averaged 22.0 points per game on the season. He has taken 11 shots or fewer in three of his five bubble contests, going under 22 points in each of them. However, as mentioned above, the Pelicans are one of the worst defenses in the league. The Spurs will need DeRozan to be aggressive if they truly have any intention of extending their major four North American sports record of making the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons. This is the riskiest wager I have listed, but it is still worth a one-unit play at BetMGM. 

Thunder first-half moneyline (-265)

• -400 full game odds
• Washington allows a league-worst 62.6 points per first half
• Thunder allow 54.2 points per first half (8th best in NBA)
• Thunder score 54.9 first-half points per game (ninth-worst inNBA)
• Wizards score 58.3 first-half points per game (seventh-best in NBA)
• Wizards down top-two scorers in Bradley Beal and Dāvis Bertāns
• Thunder first-half margin: +0.7
• Wizards first-half margin: -4.4

The Thunder appear to have an easy win on their hands. But if watching the bubble has taught us anything, the adage that “anything can happen in the NBA” remains true. While the full game moneyline is a prohibitive -400, the first half moneyline sits at -265. Washington has allowed a league-worst 62.6 points per first half. Although they have scored 58.3 points per first half, the seventh-best mark in the NBA, they are without both of their primary scorers in Bradley Beal and Dāvis Bertāns. The Thunder, on the other hand, have held opponents to 54.2 points per first half. If you are skittish about laying close to three units for a one-unit return after the upsets we have seen recently, go ahead and punch in one unit for a partial unit return. 

Tobias Harris over 21.5 points (-104)

• 22 or more points in three of four bubble contests
• Number two option with Ben Simmons out for the season
• 19.6 PPG on the year
• 23.8 PPG in the bubble
• 23 points vs. Portland earlier this season
• Portland allows opponents to shoot 50.4% from the field (sixth-worst in NBA)
• Portland has NBA’s fifth-worst scoring defense

Tobias Harris has scored 22 or more points in three of his four bubble contests, and he looks like a good bet to do so once again with Ben Simmons out for the season. The Philadelphia 76ers will need to lean on Harris more than usual, which could lead to Harris exceeding his bubble average of 23.75 points per game. He put up 23 points against Portland earlier this season and will not have to contend with Trevor Ariza, who opted out. Portland has been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, as they have allowed opponents to shoot 50.4% from the field, a mark that ranks as the sixth-worst in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have the fifth-worst defense in terms of opponent points per game, and they should have their hands full trying to contend with Harris while also worrying about Joel Embiid in the middle. 

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.