Top 5 NBA Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 4th
The NBA is back! We had an exciting slate yesterday, but we might have some even more exciting matchups today. We entered last night at 14-6 on the season, and we now sit at 17-8 after an exciting 3-2 day. The bubble has been kind to us so far, here’s hoping the sharp selections continue.
Here are my top NBA betting plays for August 4th, 2020 (Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook). You can also check out our daily NBA consensus game odds here.
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Clippers first half (-294)
The Bucks’ first-half and full-game moneyline are also recommended plays, but the Los Angeles Clippers’ first half has the best odds, which makes it the most stomachable juice-wise. If you can eat the juice, consider taking both the Bucks and Clippers for the full game, as well as the Clippers for the first half as bankroll builders. While I could list all four to up my percentages, this column is more about providing sharp plays than touting my winning percentage for free picks.
The Los Angeles Clippers should continue to push in the bubble, as they will try to hold onto second place. In contrast, the Phoenix Suns’ season is effectively over, as their schedule is not kind at all. Third in the league with 59.3 first-half points per game, the Clippers should have no trouble walking into halftime with the lead. Los Angeles may even get Lou Williams back, who is expected to be cleared from quarantine in time for tonight’s contest.
This line is heavier than spread that bettors may be used to, but as a prop, just liken the juice to that of a heavy favorite in baseball. While the Bucks’ full game moneyline is truly printing money, the Clippers first half at -294 suggests just a 74.6 percent win probability, when the true number is closer to 92 percent. This would call for the odds to be listed at -1150. Take the value and run.
T.J. Warren over 23.5 points (-104)
The juice for this prop is on the under, as T.J. Warren will face one of the better defensive teams in the league. Orlando ranks sixth in points allowed per game, and they rank seventh in field goal percentage allowed. Warren has been on absolute fire with Domantas Sabonis injured, and with Orlando’s top defender Jonathan Issac still on a minutes limit, he should be able to keep feasting.
Warren followed up his massive 53 point outburst with a 33 point showing yesterday against the Washington Wizards. The under should be where most of the smart money goes, but when a player averages 27.5 shots and is hitting them at a clip over .500, you ride with him until the wheels fall off. A different team would make this a smash three to five-unit play, but this prop remains very attractive nonetheless. Warren obviously has the green light from the field, and he should continue to produce at a high level for the rest of the seeding contests. While his efficiency should regress in this contest, his rate of 27.5 shots per game is more than enough for him to hit 24 points.
Jusuf Nurkic over 18.5 points (-118)
Jusuf Nurkic has been on fire since returning to the Portland Trail Blazers. He opened the restart with an 18-point outing in a surprising 33 minutes, and he followed that up with a 24-point eruption in 32 minutes. The minutes are noteworthy because Nurkic’s return has pushed Hassan Whiteside to under 18 minutes per game. While 18.5 points is a higher number than we would usually consider, based on his recent performances and the Houston Rockets as an opponent, this prop starts to show its hidden value.
The early money agrees as the juice is currently on the over. Houston has allowed 114.9 points per game against this season, which is good for the eighth-worst mark in the league. They have allowed opponents to shoot .492 from the field, a number that accentuates how poor the Rockets play defensively. With no true center to speak of, Nurkic should be able to dominate in the paint on his way to 19-plus points. He may not get much more than that, but there is a significant enough win probability to make this a two-unit play. We also considered the rebound prop, as Houston is the worst in the league at opponent rebounds per game.
Russell Westbrook over 6.5 assists (-138)
Russell Westbrook has been moved to more of a true point role with James Harden playing more off-ball than usual. This fact, combined with Portland’s defense, should lead to a strong outing for Westbrook. He is averaging seven assists per game on the season, and he has earned nine assists per game in the bubble. He hit only six dimes against Milwaukee, but facing one of the better defensive teams in the league definitely played a part, as Houston shot just .398 from the field.
With a major boost from playing a bottom-five team in opponent points per game, Westbrook should be able to easily hit seven assists. The early money concurs, as this line currently sits at -138 at BetMGM.
Damian Lillard over 28.5 points (-120)
Damian Lillard always has the green light to shoot whenever he wants to, but he should be pushed into a backcourt duel against James Harden and Russell Westbrook tonight. Lillard has scored 29 and 30 points in his two bubble contests, and he should be able to take advantage of a Houston Rockets team that allows the eighth-most points per game. The Rockets allow their opponents to shoot .492 from the field, an easily exploitable number for a superstar like Damian Lillard.
The juice on this prop suggests that the sharp money has come in on Lillard over, which meshes with our initial lean. Nine dimes for a player averaging only eight assists per game on the season as a whole is enough to keep this down to a one-unit play. However, the fact that the Rockets allow the seventh-most opponent assists per game gives us cause for optimism. I suggest that you hold off on punching this one in and use it to cover any potential losses for the day. If we are even or negative, play enough units to make your money back for the day. If we are plus, take the one unit and run.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.