Top 5 NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/28)
As we continue on in the first round of the 2024-25 NBA Playoffs, we will be breaking down the two contests across the association this evening. Let's not waste any more time and jump right into some of our favorite picks for April 28.
Monday’s Top 5 NBA Playoff Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cavaliers +8.5 (-110)
The Cavaliers own a 3-0 lead on the Heat coming into this contest, and will look to close out the series in four games. Cleveland has five wins over the last five games against Miami, with a point differential of 18.4. The Cavs have won the last five contests by more than 8.5 points.
Miami simply does not have the offense to keep up with Cleveland in this series, and the previous three games have put that notion on full display. The Heat put up 87 points in the last contest on 42.1% shooting from the field. That is not going to cut it in the playoffs against a Cleveland team currently firing on all cylinders.
In the three contests that Miami has played at home against Cleveland this season, the Cavs are 2-1, and have won by an average of 16 points. With the Cavaliers on the verge of advancing to the second round, we expect them to win this contest by at least nine points.
Cavaliers Over 109.5 Total Team Points (-110)
Including the playoffs, Cleveland has faced Miami six times this season. The Cavs are averaging over 119 points in those contests, with 50% shooting as a team. Miami was an extremely sound defensive unit that finished the season ranked 7th in defensive rating, and only allowed 110.6 points every 100 possessions. However, they seemingly cannot contain this Cleveland offense.
The Cavs have scored more than 109.5 points in five out of the six matchups this season against the Heat. Cleveland has scored 120+ points in all three playoff games this postseason, while shooting 50.8% from the field as a team. The Cavaliers averaged over 121 points when playing on the road, and scored a combined 260 points in the last two games played in Miami.
It is always concerning when there is such a large disparity between the current average scoring for a team and the total points. Having said that, Miami has not been capable of stopping Cleveland from scoring at will, and because of that, we feel the Cavs score at least 110 points in this contest.
Rockets at Warriors – Under 199 Total Points (-110)
This selection will be the sweatiest of the night by a landslide, and truth be told, we are okay with it. The 199 combined total is too low, bordering on the side of criminal. However, history forecasts a closely contested battle, with minimal scoring. It sounds wild to write that when this contests involves two teams who can score in high volume, yet the numbers show this matchup could be devoid of scoring.
The Rockets and Warriors have met eight times this season, these contests have resulted in four out of the last seven falling short of 199 points. These two teams have not exceeded the suggested combined points threshold for this contest in two of three games in the series.
Jimmy Butler being sidelined plays heavily into this decision. Butler is questionable at this time and could miss the second consecutive contest in the series. If he is able to play tonight, this total is going to jump up, and you're probably going to want to have the higher side of that total. Especially in front of a raucous Warriors home crowd.
Make sure to check back on the Betting Pros app a little later in the day before pulling the trigger on this selection. The pace of this contest would drastically change if Butler is on the floor.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (+135)
Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 1.7 three-pointers over the last 10 contests, having successfully knocked in at least two or more baskets from deep in five of those games. Smith Jr. is averaging 2.3 three-pointers on 6.0 attempts over the last ten games against Golden State.
The Houston forward has hit 2+ three-pointers in eight straight games when Houston is an underdog against the Pacific Division. Smith Jr. has made at least two shots from beyond the arc in six of the last ten games played against Golden State.
Smith Jr. has hit two or more baskets from deep in the last two contests at the Chase Center, and three of five games against the Warriors outright.
Amen Thompson Over 3.5 Assists (-125)
Amen Thompson is dishing out an average of 5.4 assists over the last 10 games. The second-year standout has recorded at least four assists in all but one of those contests. In the last five matchups against Golden State, he is averaging 4.8 assists.
Thompson has finished with at least four assists in the previous 16 games when Houston is the underdog. The Houston guard has exceeded 3.5 assists in four out of the last five contests when playing the Warriors.
It will probably be best to get this selection in early if possible. Considering the history and the current streak, there's a decent chance this number increases to 4.5 assists as we get closer to tip-off. The return is already at -125, at 4.5 assists, the odds would dip a bit to -105/-108. However, the risk would increase tremendously, something you should predominantly avoid.