Top 5 NBA Playoffs Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/5)
As we enter the second round of the 2024-25 NBA playoffs, we will be breaking down the two contests across The Association this evening.
Let's not waste any more time and jump right into some of our favorite NBA picks for Monday, May 5th.
Monday’s Top 5 NBA Playoff Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
NY Knicks @ Boston Celtics Under 213 Points (-108)
We kick things off in Boston, where the Knicks match up against the Celtics in the first of what many do not feel will be a seven-game series. The 9-point spread indicates the overall impression is that Boston will move on in six games or fewer.
The 213 total is one point below the combined point per game average for both teams in the first round of the playoffs. Boston is averaging 110 points in the 2024-25 playoffs at home. Whereas the Knicks are putting up an extra 3.4 points when on the road, averaging 109.3 points in those contests.
Despite the six-point difference in points scored in regards to situation, it's the defensive prowess of the Celtics when playing at home that moves our needle towards the under in this contest. Boston has played three games at home in the playoffs and has only allowed the opposition to score an average of 91.7 points. The Celtics held their first-round opponent to 43% shooting from the field and 26.6% from beyond the arc on their home floor.
It should be stated that the Knicks are a much more powerful offense than the Orlando Magic. However, both teams rely heavily on two major scoring options. If either one or both have an off night, the total score is going to be impacted. Boston should have every intention of making it as difficult as possible for Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson to find success tonight.
Oklahoma City Thunder Team Total Over 117.5 Points (-105)
Oklahoma City is scoring at will going into the second round of playoff action, averaging almost 125 points in the previous two postseason contests at home. The Thunder scored 122.8 points per game on their home floor during the regular season, which is an extra 4.4 points per game more than when playing on the road.
In the two games the Denver Nuggets played at Oklahoma City this season, the Nuggets allowed more than 117.5 points in both contests. This was a rare back-to-back situation, and the Thunder still scored 127 points in each game.
We recognize that Oklahoma City has been off since April 26th. That is a serious amount of time not to be on the floor, especially during the playoffs. That said, the Thunder knocked down 15.4 three-pointers per game (38.3%) when playing at home on the season. Oklahoma City plays at an elite level at home and we feel they exceed 117.5 points in this contest.
Oklahoma City Thunder -3 First-Quarter Spread (-110)
The Thunder averaged 31.7 points in the first quarter during the regular season at home. That average is the highest compared to the three other quarters. Oklahoma City gets to the scoring fast. They also only allow an average of 27.4 points during the first quarter.
Oklahoma City had the highest win percentage in the first quarter, beating their opponents 82.9% of the time. The Thunder also led the league in first-quarter point differential, winning by an average of 4.32 points.
This selection does not leave us with a vast amount of wiggle room, yet this Thunder squad is a young and hungry bunch that should be champing at the bit to get on the floor after such a lengthy hiatus. It will be a sweat, but we feel Oklahoma City has at least a four-point advantage over the Denver Nuggets going into the second quarter.
Kristaps Porzingis 6+ First-Quarter Points (+105)
We move on to what is going to be considered a wild card option, yet the positive return is certainly enticing. The Boston center averaged 6.2 points in the first quarter this season, matching that number in 17 home games.
Kristaps Porzingis has scored six points or more in the first quarter in 12 out of the last 20 contests. The Veteran sharp-shooter is averaging 5.9 points over that span, while connecting on a phenomenal 51.3% of attempts.
Porzingis ranked second on the Celtics in three-point percentage, knocking down 41.2% of his attempts. He made at least one three-pointer in the first quarter during the regular season. As long as the Celtics center is on the floor for at least seven minutes in the opening quarter, we feel he can score at least six points.
Head-to-Head Prop: Jalen Williams (-1.5) More Points Than Jamal Murray (-120)
To close out the selections for the evening, we have a pretty straightforward option that may not return the most profit, however, it's nothing too distasteful to the palate. Both players are averaging over 20 points to begin the second round of the playoffs. Although Jamal Murray has played in three more games and scored over 40 points in Game 5 against the Clippers.
Jalen Williams has scored at least 20 points in every game of the playoffs to date. Murray failed to record 20 points in two games out of the seven played in the previous series. The Denver guard has only exceeded 20 points in one out of the last six games against Oklahoma City.
Field goal percentage is another contributing factor that weighs profoundly on our selection. Williams is shooting over 54% from the field, while Murray is scoring at a slightly lower level of accuracy, with 48.1% of attempts dropping through the basket.
Enjoy the games tonight and best of luck with your picks.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: