Top 5 Olympic Betting Picks for Monday, August 2nd (2021)
We’ve entered the back half of the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. While the United States retains a lead in the overall medal count, China currently boasts a seven-medal lead in gold. As Team USA tries to close the gap, quarterfinal play in men’s basketball will determine whether the United States has a chance to add another to its total. A tough matchup against Spain awaits the talented but unpredictable Team USA.
Get a sign-up bonus up to $1,000 at DraftKings Sportsbook >>
Olympic Lock of the Day: Spain +12.5 | Men’s Basketball | -110 at DK Sportsbook
Olympic Lock YTD: 2-3 -1.09u
Well, my Olympic “locks†haven’t been as advertised thus far, but I’m chalking Friday’s loss up to a putrid basketball slate. I’m still net positive because of my recommended futures bets, however. I’m looking to extend that momentum back over to my daily picks.
I’m back to betting against Team USA with this pick. The last time this team was a 12-point favorite, France upset them with a seven-point win. Sure, Team USA bounced back by covering against Iran and the Czech Republic. But Spain is a much tougher opponent — they won the 2019 FIBA World Cup and won bronze in the 2016 Rio Olympics.
We’ve also seen these two teams face each other recently. Spain took on the United States in an exhibition game on July 18th and lost by seven, enough to cover this spread. But the United States entered the second half with a deficit, and it took a massive third quarter from Keldon Johnson for them to win. Of course, Team USA still didn’t have Devin Booker, Khris Middleton, or Jrue Holiday in that game. That said, I suspect the Spanish chose to hold back a bit down the stretch as to not show their hand for subsequent competitive play. They should put up a tough fight and cover this spread.
Spain may not have the advantage in shooting, but they have it in size. The Americans have one seven-footer, reserve center JaVale McGee, while the Spanish have two, Marc and Pau Gasol. Aside from those two, Spain also has the 6-foot-10 Willy Hernangómez and the 6-foot-9 VÃctor Claver. The fact that the United States starts the 6-foot-9 Bam Adebayo at the five only compounds this issue. That’s why Spain outrebounded the United States by 13 in their last meeting.
Other Olympic Betting Picks
Other Picks YTD: 5-6 -1.2u
#1. Spain ML | Men’s Basketball | +550 (.2u) at DK Sportsbook
Don’t blow your whole bankroll on it, but Spain could realistically upset the United States. If the Americans continue to get outplayed on the glass, they could find themselves in an all-too-familiar spot. France won by pairing a six-rebound advantage with accurate shooting, and the Spanish could easily do something similar. Again, you don’t bet the farm on this one — just wager enough to lock in a one-unit return.
#2. Kevin Durant u5.5 Rebounds | Men’s Basketball | +100 at DK Sportsbook
Do you really expect Durant to get boards over the Gasol brothers, Hernangómez, or Claver? DraftKings does, apparently, as the juice is on the over (-138) for this prop. Yet Durant recorded just two rebounds in Team USA’s exhibition match against Spain. He did the same against France. Durant only had five boards against Iran, too. The eight rebounds that he recorded against the Czech Republic seems like an outlier, and he should stay under this total against Spain.
#3. Ricky Rubio o19.5 Points | Men’s Basketball | -115 at DK Sportsbook
The formula for beating Team USA is simple: exploit the Americas’ switch-heavy defense to set up high-percentage shots. That’s how France and Australia won, and that’s what Spain will try to do, too. Opposing guards have benefited from this strategy immensely: Patty Mills scored 22 points in Australia’s exhibition win, and Evan Fournier recorded 28 in group play. We’ve already seen Rubio post big numbers against this team, too, as he dropped 23 on Team USA in their exhibition match.
#4. Luis Scola o5.5 Rebounds | Men’s Basketball | -115 at DK Sportsbook
The 41-year-old Luis Scola is in for a big game against Australia. The Boomers lost center Aron Baynes earlier in the tournament, making them vulnerable to the 6-foot-8 Scola. The Australians just got outrebounded by 17 in their last game! Scola has recorded rebound totals of four (vs. Slovenia), two (vs. Spain), and ten (vs. Japan) this tournament, so while his average (5.3) doesn’t point to value, his performance against Japan certainly does. Australia is much more similar in size to Japan than Slovenia or Spain, and Scola should easily cash this prop early Tuesday morning.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our How To Bet and Sports Betting Strategy and Advice pages are for you. You can get started with our Sports Betting 101 Section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced sports betting strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.