Top 5 WNBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/7)
We are treated to a two-game playoff slate in the WNBA today. The stars will no doubt give their all in an attempt to advance their team to the next round. Without any further delay, let's jump right into our favorite WNBA picks for Wednesday, October 7th.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
We start things off with what could end up being one of our sharpest selections. Allisha Gray will not be in uniform this evening. The veteran guard was injured (finger) after playing only 11 minutes in Game 1. Gray scored seven points in 11 minutes, as the Dream went on to win by 10. Without Gray in the lineup, Atlanta's offense and rotation completely change.
Atlanta has a decision to make in Game 2. Will they choose to have DeWanna Bonner start and sacrifice their best scoring option off the bench? That seems like the only path tonight unless the Dream choose to go with Isobel Borlase or Te-Hina Paopao. Bonner will certainly add to the starting lineup’s offense. However, without the veteran's points off the bench, the Liberty’s depth becomes a much greater advantage.
New York didn't unseat the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx only to go down 0-2 to a team missing one of the league’s best scoring options. The Liberty's bench should be a major factor in New York leveling the series at one game apiece this evening.
Pick: New York Liberty -1.5 (+112)
New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
If the Liberty are to win this contest, it stands to reason they will score closer to 90 points. New York scored 82 points in Game 1, after scoring no fewer than 87 points through the opening round of the playoffs. Sabrina Ionescu was absolutely locked in on Sunday. The veteran guard led the contest in scoring, with 27 points on 50% shooting from the field.
New York relied heavily on its starters in Game 1, leaving the team unable to keep up with Atlanta's pace. Marine Fauthoux played the most minutes off the bench (12), and that simply cannot be the case tonight. Marine Johannes and Han Xu should see increased playing time tonight and contribute more significantly to the scoring.
The Liberty have eclipsed 85.5 points in four out of the last seven games, averaging 86.9 points over that span. With a few extra points from Jonquel Jones and the utilization of their bench, the Liberty should be able to score 86+ points against the Dream in Game 2.
Pick: New York Liberty Team Total Over 85.5 Points (-110)
New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream
Jonquel Jones had a tough first game as the Liberty look to advance to the WNBA Finals. Jones attempted nine shots on Sunday. The last contest in which Jones played at least 30 minutes and did not put up at least 10 attempts was on August 15th. We expect the veteran forward to be much more active this time around.
Jones also performed underwhelmingly in the first contest against the Lynx. The Liberty forward responded with 21 points on 9-of-14 shooting in Game 2. While 20+ points seems ambitious, 15+ is more than reasonable. Jones finished with at least 15 points in two of the three regular-season games against the Dream.
If you want to get a tad more aggressive, taking a look at Jones to record a double-double at +108 odds is also in play. Jones has produced at least 10 points and 10 boards in five of the last seven games - including four of the last five contests.
Pick: Jonquel Jones 15+ Points (-105)
Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries
To put it bluntly, this series doesn't look good for Las Vegas at all. The Aces had the perfect opportunity to take control of their semifinal matchup against Golden State. The Valkyries were coming off a tough victory against Dallas, and the Aces held a rest advantage. Las Vegas responded by putting up 60 points.
It's possible the Aces felt they had already won when they sent the Indiana Fever home in the first round. Because Las Vegas certainly did not show up to Game 1 against Golden State. The Aces shot 33.9% from the field on Sunday and were out-rebounded by 15 boards on the offensive glass.
The Aces looked lifeless in the first contest against the Valkyries, and we just do not see how Las Vegas turns it around. The Aces attempted 89 free throws against the Fever. Almost 30 per game. Golden State limited Las Vegas to 16 on Sunday. The Valkyries are easily the toughest defense to score on in the playoffs. If the Aces are not making shots or getting to the line, it's a grim outlook for Las Vegas.
Pick: Golden State Valkyries Moneyline (-125)
Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries
We close out our best bets for the slate with an unexpected player who will play a very valuable role in the series. Kiah Stokes held four-time WNBA MVP A'ja Wilson to 8-of-21 shooting from the field in Game 1. Stokes did not score a single point on only three attempts. However, the veteran center grabbed 14 boards while dishing out two assists.
The 14 rebounds when the Aces will no doubt have to put a strong emphasis on rebounds would be a tall order to repeat. The oddsmakers are at a bit of a disadvantage due to the role and production relative to season-long stats, which could result in a fantastic leverage play.
Stokes has scored only four points in four games against the Aces, so we figured it best to remove scoring from the equation completely. Stokes played 27 minutes on Sunday and should see anywhere around 24-27 minutes again this evening. With that amount of playing time and a direct mandate to grab boards, Stokes looks to be in a fantastic spot to finish with at least nine combined rebounds + assists.
Pick: Kiah Stokes 9+ Rebounds + Assists (-119)