Top 5 WNBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (6/17)
We are treated to a powerful six-game WNBA slate today. This will be the last night for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup, so we expect a ton of action. With such a vast slate, there is no shortage of betting options to consider. Here are some of our best WNBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, June 17th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Washington Mystics at Connecticut Sun
We kick things off in Connecticut, with the Mystics taking on a Sun team that's hungry to put another win on the board. Leila Lacan has been a wonderful source of assists lately, and if you have been following the WNBA the past two weeks, this was a great play to pounce on. Admittedly, the line has crept up.
Lacan is averaging 5.3 assists per game through six contests for Connecticut. The young guard is nothing if not consistent, averaging 5.5 assists every 30 minutes. She has been on the floor for an average of 30.5 minutes over the past four games.
Lacan has accumulated at least six assists in three consecutive contests. The Sun guard is averaging seven assists over that span. She continues to deliver massive assist totals and is benefiting from solid minutes. This will likely be one of the last games in which we can achieve a positive return on investment (ROI) on her assists line. We might as well take advantage.
Pick: Leila Lacan 6+ Assists (+105)
New York Liberty at Chicago Sky
Our next selection seems too good to be true. Nevertheless, the Chicago Sky are tail-spinning, and the Liberty are finally getting back to full strength. It's very easy to envision this first quarter ending with a lead of four points or more for the Liberty.
Through 14 games this season, the New York Liberty have won eight first-quarter battles. They own a +26 point differential in the first 10 minutes of play. New York has been ahead going into the second quarter in three out of its last five games, with an average win lead of four points. Whereas the Sky has a first-quarter margin of -4.7 on the year and -7.7 over the last three games.
Oddsmakers are against us on this recommendation because of New York's propensity to start slowly. The return of Sabrina Ionescu is surely going to change that. We would prefer to be ahead of this production increase and aim to be ahead by four points or more at the end of the first quarter.
Pick: Liberty First Quarter -3.5 (-102)
Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury
The Las Vegas Aces enter this contest fresh off being completely blown out by a young and relentless Dallas Wings team. Las Vegas will no doubt be looking to turn the page against a vulnerable Phoenix team. The Aces play at a faster pace when on the road, which should translate into more scoring opportunities.
The Phoenix Mercury conceded 111 points in their last contest against the Los Angeles Sparks in what was seemingly a complete defensive meltdown. Phoenix allows over 86 points per game to opponents, and 94.3 points per game over the last three games. The Mercury surrenders the most points of any team at home (98) and has given up 90+ points in five out of six home games.
Las Vegas is averaging 90.8 points per game on the road this season, with at least 90 points in five out of nine road games. Las Vegas gets a fantastic matchup in Phoenix, where the Mercury have been nothing short of generous to opponents.
Pick: Aces Team Total 90+ Points (-120)
Seattle Storm at Portland Fire
This will not only be the sweatiest selection in the pack, but also the one with the highest ROI. While Seattle does not have many wins this season, they have been one of the best defensive teams in the league lately. Portland has been getting absolutely cooked in the first 10 minutes of play recently, and we think that could give us a solid edge in this contest.
The Storm are averaging 20.5 points in the first quarter through 15 games. They make 38.5% of their first-quarter attempts from beyond the arc, while owning a 53.5% true shooting rate. Seattle ranks sixth in the WNBA in pace in the first quarter and put up over 17 shots in the initial 10 minutes.
Portland is allowing 20.9 points in the first quarter. Over the last three games, the Fire have given up 25 points before the second quarter began - including 35 in their last contest. The pace for the Storm, combined with the Fire's inability to stop the opposition from scoring, should result in Seattle being the first team to reach 20 points.
Pick: First Quarter Race to 20 Points: Seattle Storm (+110)
Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries
We close out our picks for the evening with what could easily be the game of the night. This contest features two very youthful and capable teams that continue their pursuit to change the landscape of the WNBA. While one team focuses heavily on its defensive prowess, the other tends to be more comfortable running its opponent off the court with constant scoring attacks.
Dallas boasts a respectable 51.8% true shooting rate at home. However, as the away team, the Wings experience a sharp drop in their shooting percentage to 48.9%. Dallas connects on just 28.9% of their three-point attempts on the road, and Golden State holds opponents to 41.9% shooting from the field.
The Valkyries are allowing 78.3 points per game this season. Opponents are sinking 2.6 fewer three-pointers when Golden State is at home, while shooting 5.5% worse from above the perimeter. The Valkyries are 6-2 on their home floor and have a tremendous defensive advantage going into this contest.
Pick: Valkyries -2.5 (-115)