Top 5 WNBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/8)
We are treated to a three-game slate across the WNBA this evening. There will certainly be no shortage of options to consider for these matchups. Here are some of our best WNBA picks and predictions for Wednesday, July 8th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Golden State Valkyries at Toronto Tempo
Given Golden State's dominance on the defensive side of the ball, oddsmakers have set an extremely low threshold for Toronto’s team total.
Toronto is coming off a 75-point performance - their lowest total in five games. The Tempo scored 125 points in the contest before that, and with Marina Mabrey’s scorching-hot hand at the ready, Toronto is capable of putting up at least 78 points in any matchup.
Golden State allows a league-low 76.4 points per game. However, that number increases slightly to 78.5 when the Valkyries are on the road. The largest shift comes in the form of defense against three-point shooting. Golden State surrenders almost two extra baskets from beyond the arc, on an additional 4% success rate.
Toronto averages over 87 points at home and, as previously mentioned, currently has one of the deadliest scoring options in the league. The Tempo has been an extremely high-powered offense over the last two weeks. Toronto is averaging 93.8 points and 14 three-pointers per game over the last five games.
Pick: Tempo Total Team Over 79.5 Points (-120)
Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun
The Minnesota Lynx continue to do right by us when playing on the road, and tonight should be no different. Connecticut is trying to string together back-to-back wins.
Ultimately, they lack the talent to overcome what has been the league’s best team over two consecutive games. The Lynx dominate as the away team either straight up on the Moneyline or against the spread (ATS), and we plan to exploit that edge.
Minnesota is 9-2 through 11 road games this season. The Lynx have also covered the spread in nine out of the last 11 games. Minnesota leads the league with a 15-6 ATS record. The Lynx lead the league in offensive rating (114.6) and three-point efficiency (36.6%).
Minnesota has won 75% of its contests when it is the favorite and plays on the road. The Lynx lost to the Sun on Sunday in Minnesota. We expect the Lynx to bounce back in this contest and cover the spread.
Pick: Lynx -7.5 (-112)
Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun
Nia Coffey has been a constant for us regarding her combined rebounds + assists props. For this contest, though, the play is to pivot to her points + rebounds prop. The veteran forward seems to struggle when facing teams with length and couldn't provide much offense at all against Connecticut on Sunday.
Nia Coffey is averaging a miserable 5.6 points through the last five games, while shooting 25% from the field and 21% from beyond the arc. The forward from Northwestern seems unable to find success at the rim and continues to pick up early fouls. Coffey has accumulated three or more fouls in four of the last five games.
Coffey was on the floor for 20 minutes on Sunday when the Lynx last played the Sun. A low distribution of playing time and complete inefficiency from below and above the perimeter is a fantastic combination to bet against. You can choose to take the under on her points total at 9.5. However, the payout for that is -130 and could continue to rise.
Pick: Nia Coffey Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)
Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks
When scouring the options for tonight, this selection stood out as one of the highest-probability options likely to go under the radar. The Indiana Fever are on the first night of a back-to-back and may very well elect to rein in their starters if things are well in hand going into the fourth quarter.
Indiana tops the WNBA in scoring, averaging 93.5 points per game. That said, Indiana’s scoring dips to 84.8 points per game on the road. The Fever have scored 96+ points in just one out of eight road games this season. The implied team total is heavily skewed by Indiana averaging over 100 points through the last three contests.
We are getting an 11-point handicap in this contest, and regardless of how aggressive the Fever have been as of late, the under on their team total is a phenomenal play. Indiana shoots 44% from the field on the road, while averaging 4.8 fewer free throws per game.
Pick Indiana Fever Team Total Under 95.5 Points (-115)
Indiana Fever at Los Angeles Sparks
This will be one of our sweatiest selections today, yet we can't argue with our chances against an L.A. team missing its top scorer, Kelsey Plum (23.9 points per game). Indiana simply appears to be the stronger first-quarter option, and we feel they do enough to be the first team to reach 20 points in this matchup.
The Fever are averaging 24.3 points in the first quarter through 20 games. Indiana makes 49% of its first-quarter field attempts and shoots 60.3% from the field. Indiana is averaging 25.8 points over the first 10 minutes of play in its last five games.
Los Angeles ranks dead last in first-quarter points allowed this season, conceding over 24 points through the initial 10 minutes. Los Angeles is connecting on just 25% of their three-point attempts in the opening quarter over the last four games. With the Sparks shooting so poorly from beyond the arc, it's difficult to envision Los Angeles being the first team to reach 20 points.
Pick: First Quarter Race to 20 Points - Indiana Fever (-130)