Top 5 WNBA Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (8/26)
There are two WNBA games this evening. Despite the smaller slate, there are still a few options to take advantage of in the betting markets. Let's not waste any time and jump right into our favorite WNBA picks for Wednesday, August 26th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
You have to tip your hat off to the oddsmakers on this one for completely smothering not only the point spread, but the total as well. The end of the season is where you can truly start to smash due to over-inflated or sluggish lines. Unfortunately, that will not be the case in the contest. Which means we are going to pivot in a different direction where the sportsbooks are more vulnerable.
Yes, this will be the second game in as many nights for the Connecticut. Yes, this will also be the first leg of a road back-to-back for the Valkyries, who face the New York Liberty tomorrow. The current 13.5-point spread clearly indicates that Golden State is the superior team and will likely be in a position to rest their starting rotation in the fourth quarter.
The Connecticut Sun have scored fewer than 69 points in one of their last 10 games. Connecticut finished with 69+ points in six consecutive home games. If the Valkyries do choose to sit their starting players in the fourth quarter, that plays even further into our hands. The Sun could play four to five minutes against Golden State’s bench players.
Pick: Both Teams to Score Over 68.5 Points (-110)
Golden State Valkyries at Connecticut Sun
It would be highly surprising for Connecticut to come out of the gate firing, given the back-to-back schedule they are facing. This means we are favoring Golden State scoring under 20 points in the first quarter. The season average through the first 10 minutes of play offers us a lofty edge, and it looks like a solid spot to pounce.
Golden State is not the type of offense that gets off to a booming start. The Valkyries are averaging the fewest points through the first 10 minutes of gameplay (19.6). Golden State also owns the lowest first-quarter field-goal rate (41.1%).
The much safer approach is to take the Valkyries to be the first team to score 20 points in the first quarter. We are going to get ambitious and play a semi-longshot of neither team scoring 20 first-quarter points. Again, if you wanted to jump on Golden State, it's a completely logical play.
Pick: First-Quarter Race to 20 Points: Neither (+225)
Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm
There's a good chance this number will come down throughout the day. Jumping on it early makes the most sense. Seattle has the fewest wins of any team in the WNBA (seven) and has no right to be the favorite at home by more than -1.5.
The Storm haven't proven capable of winning on the road or at home this season. The Tempo may have lost 11 consecutive games. However, that streak is over now. Truth be told, neither team should be favored in any game going forward. That's why the spread is completely aggressive.
Seattle's frontcourt should absolutely dominate tonight. Having said that, the Tempo’s backcourt is entirely capable of running up the scoreboard. It's going to be a battle between two teams that are well out of the playoff race.
Pick: Tempo +6.5 (-115)
Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm
This selection is another risky play. However, the Storm have been struggling to score lately, while Toronto has resorted to playing reserves in their full rotation. Neither team is playing an efficient brand of basketball lately. While that obviously includes defense, the offensive production is way below the 177-point threshold for this contest.
Seattle is averaging 77.3 points on 35.7% shooting over the last three games. The Storm own a quite horrendous 46.9% true shooting rate, while scoring 82 points or fewer in three out of their last five home games.
Toronto has been without Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes for three games. The Tempo are averaging 80.7 points per game over that span. The Storm and Tempo are combining for close to 20 fewer points than tonight’s projected total.
Pick: Under 176.5 Points (-115)
Toronto Tempo at Seattle Storm
While Toronto may be struggling offensively, Kiki Rice has been printing money on props without Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes on the floor. Rice is averaging 17.3 points per game, while shooting an incredibly efficient 56.3% from the field through the last three games. The young guard is knocking down two three-pointers on 54.5% shooting over that span.
While the line is seriously incurring the "hot hand tax," Rice is being used in 20.3% of the Toronto offense, yet owns a true shooting rate of just 70%. She has scored 17 points in four out of the last six games, including three consecutive contests. Rice has been playing at an elite level over the last week, and we are confident this will continue against Seattle this evening.
Pick: Kiki Rice 17+ Points (-122)
Best of luck with your picks. Enjoy the games tonight.