Top 6 MLB Player Futures Odds & Picks (2022)
Though some of the usual suspects have defined the landscape of the 2022 MLB season, this year has also been marked by the emergence of some incredible young talent.
The following player award futures markets will highlight some of these superstars who will undoubtedly play massive roles as the season approaches October.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
American League
Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez (SEA) (-370)
As the odds imply, Julio Rodriguez is the clear frontrunner for the AL ROY award. Selected as a 2022 All-Star, Rodriguez leads all qualified rookies in WAR, H, R, 2B, HR, RBI and SB. His achievements have transcended individual accolades, as he has been the engine behind Seattle’s scorching hot end to the first half of the season. Look for Rodriguez to continue his ROY campaign into the second half of 2022 and propel the Mariners to their first playoff berth since 2001.
Cy Young: Shane McClanahan (TB) (+205)
Shane McClanahan has lived up to every expectation imaginable in his first full season as a big leaguer, earning the honors of starting for the AL in the All-Star game. The hard-throwing lefty holds a 10-3 record entering the break, leading all qualified starting pitchers with an absurdly low 1.71 ERA. McClanahan ranks first in strikeout percentage while walking fewer than 5% of the batters he faces. The slash line for opposing batters against McClanahan is a ridiculous .176/.216/.289, all of which are good for top-three marks in the entire MLB.
If it weren’t for the season that Justin Verlander is having, this would hardly be considered a race. Verlander’s success provides value to bet McClanahan here, even though the young lefty is outpacing Verlander in nearly every pitching metric. In addition, only time will tell how Verlander’s arm holds up after his season-long rehab from injury.
Most Valuable Player: Aaron Judge (NYY) (+150)
Reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani is the odds-on favorite for the 2022 AL MVP award heading into the Midsummer Classic, though there is reason to believe that this is mispriced. For starters, a player has not repeated as MVP in consecutive years since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. The MVP is a largely narrative-based award, and Judge was edged out by Jose Altuve for AL MVP in the middle of the Astros cheating scandal in 2017.
Judge leads all of baseball with 33 home runs and 209 total bases, ranking in the top three in SLG%, OPS and RBIs. His barrel is connecting with the ball at the highest rate in the majors, resulting in the second-highest average exit velocity in the league. Judge has been excellent in multiple OF positions, leading all AL positional players with a WAR of 4.4. Finally, Judge has led the Yankees to a torrid 64-28 record while the hapless Angels reside 14 games under .500.
National League
Rookie of the Year: Michael Harris II (ATL) (+210)
The NL ROY race showcases a battle between Michael Harris II (OF) and Spencer Strider (P) of the Atlanta Braves. The ROY award is unique because it does not discriminate between pitchers and position players. Yet, comparing the two projects, I give a slight edge to Harris.
The Braves have posted an incredible 34-14 record since Harris debuted in late May. It took him less than two months to amass the fifth-highest WAR (2.1) on the Braves roster, which is higher than that of Strider (1.9). Harris’ .283 BA and .497 SLG% surpass that of AL ROY favorite Julio Rodriguez, and his WAR is tied for the lead among all other NL rookies. Harris has not only been getting it done at the plate, as he has 10 SB while emerging as a phenomenal CF for Atlanta.
Cy Young: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) (-125)
In today’s game of baseball, where managers are content with shortening the game and getting into their high-powered bullpens as quickly as possible, Sandy Alcantara is somewhat of an anomaly. Boasting a sparkling 1.76 ERA, he is the only NL pitcher to have two CGs on his record, and he paces the league in IP by a wide margin. Alcantara’s ability to avoid hard contact and get batters out tops in the league.
With all the innings that he has pitched, Alcantara has only surrendered 6 HR, good for third in the entire MLB and second in the NL. Opponents are slashing an abysmal .190/.248/.292 against Alcantara, which he accomplishes by missing barrels at the second-highest rate in the NL (4.7%). Alcantara and Corbin Burnes have incredibly similar numbers across the board, but Alcantara’s ability to consistently go deeper in games and avoid hard-hit balls gives him the edge.
Most Valuable Player: Austin Riley (ATL) (+1400)
While the AL MVP race features a noticeable drop-off after the two favorites, the competition for the NL MVP is much more congested and allows for a longshot to win. While Paul Goldschmidt was a hitting machine during the first half of 2022, he was actually outpaced by Riley in several offensive categories and has made a limited defensive impact compared to Riley.
Riley leads the NL with 208 TB and crushed 27 HRs compared to Goldschmidt’s 20. Riley ranks among the top five in the NL in offensive WAR, SLG% and OPS while producing a top-five average exit velocity in the entire MLB. Though Goldschmidt has better numbers in some categories, advanced analytics and expected statistics favor Riley because of his ability to hit the ball on the barrel more frequently than Goldschmidt (Riley 15.7%; Goldschmidt 11.3%). Additionally, the Braves will likely be a more successful team at the end of the year with a better record and chance to make the playoffs than the Cardinals.
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