Top 6 NBA Betting Picks for Monday, December 6th (2021)
We’ve got an action-packed 10-game slate on tap tonight, and if you’re looking to make a quick buck, you’re better off playing on tonight’s card than waiting for tomorrow’s three-game set. As a result, I’ve featured six plays below.
Here are my top NBA betting picks for Monday’s action.
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Written Picks YTD: 49-43-0 (+14.95u)
Total Picks YTD: 65-70-0 (+13.94u)*
*Follow me @is_sirois for any other plays.
1. Cavaliers +6.5 | -110 at FD Sportsbook
My NBA betting model has this one as a lock even if Giannis Antetokounmpo suits up, which is surprising, but does make some sense. Cleveland has punched far above their weight this year by routinely covering the spread. At 17-5-2 ATS, they rank as the NBA’s best team. They have even covered in 81.8% of their away games. They will have to play on the wrong end of a back-to-back set, but they have gone 2-1-1 ATS in such situations this year, and they are 3-1 ATS when playing with a rest disadvantage. Milwaukee is just 4-4 ATS with a rest advantage.
That said, the two main reasons the model favors Cleveland are the quality of their active personnel and their overall efficiency. If Giannis sits, the model believes Cleveland’s roster to be better than Milwaukee’s. If he starts and is his usual self, the model assigns their rosters a roughly equal weight, which still gives an advantage to Cleveland against the spread.
Efficiency metrics also point to some value here. Cleveland trails Milwaukee in offensive efficiency by eight spots (and 2.5 baskets scored per 100 possessions) but leads in defensive efficiency by four spots (and 0.9 baskets allowed per 100 possessions). The difference in their efficiency numbers has grown in recent games, likely because of Giannis’ absence — through the last three games, the Cavs lead in defensive efficiency by 4.2 baskets allowed per 100 possessions and in offensive efficiency by 3 baskets scored.
The Milwaukee Bucks may get Giannis Antetokounmpo a win for his birthday, but the Cavaliers should still cover.
2. Domantas Sabonis o16.5 Points | -118 at FD Sportsbook
3. Domantas Sabonis 20+ Points | +172 (.4u) at FD Sportsbook
4. Domantas Sabonis 25+ Points | +580 (.1u) at FD Sportsbook
Sabonis scored at least 30 points in each of his games against the Wizards last season. He rattled off another 28 in his first game against them this year. He even averages 17.4 points per game. As such, this total doesn’t make much sense.
But we’re playing more than the trends. Washington permits the sixth-most points in the paint per game (47.3). They have allowed power forwards to score 23.3 points per game against them (the second-highest figure in the NBA), and they’ve let centers score 22.1 (11th-highest). Through their last seven games, the Wizards have allowed power forwards to score at the same rate, but they’ve also allowed centers to get 29 points per game (third-highest).
These factors combine to make Sabonis a great play tonight. The big man leads the Pacers in paint touches per game (10.6), so he’ll account for most of their scoring around the rim. That’s what he did in October — 16 of his 28 points came inside in the paint. He also splits his time between the four and the five, so he’ll benefit from Washington’s defensive vulnerabilities.
I recommend that you split 1.5u across different totals for Sabonis. With this structure, you’d still profit .35u if he clears 17 but doesn’t clear 20, 1.44u if he clears 20 but not 25, and 2.12u if he clears all three.
5. Bradley Beal o23.5 Points | -112 (.5u) at FD Sportsbook
Sabonis has consistently performed well against the Wizards. Likewise, Bradley Beal has consistently performed well against the Pacers. Beal had to sit out Washington’s prior meeting with the Pacers, but he went for 50 and 26 in their two meetings last season.
The primary reason we’re targeting Beal is the absence of Spencer Dinwiddie. The Wizards intend to rest him in back-to-backs, and he played yesterday, so he will almost certainly not see the floor tonight. Beal has gone for 27, 21, and 26 without Dinwiddie this season.
It’s worth noting that the Pacers have played excellent defense against opposing shooting guards this year. Chris Duarte ranks as a +1.1 defender in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR ratings, and Indiana has surrendered the 10th-fewest points per game to the position (20.6) on the year. However, Dinwiddie’s absence is sufficient for me to lay a half-unit on this prop anyway.
6. SGP: Sabonis 25+ PTS + Beal 20+ PTS + Turner 15+ PTS | +2422 (.1u) at FD Sportsbook
Sabonis and Turner both cashed these totals the last time they met the Wizards (Turner went for 40!). We’ll throw in a teased-down prop for Beal to accommodate Indiana’s strong defensive play and hope for a big game from the trio of star players.
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.