Top 6 NFL Player Props & Bets: Week 11 Picks (2025)
For this week's plays, we're backing a hyper-aggressive passer making his first start of the season, fading a rookie running back who's in line for an expanded role, and riding a receiver's hot streak.
Before we get into the Week 11 picks, a quick recap of Week 10:
Wins: Jaxson Dart over 201.5 passing yards, Demario Douglas under 41.5 receiving yards, Christian Watson over 31.5 receiving yards, Jakobi Meyers under 42.5 receiving yards, Alec Pierce over 51.5 receiving yards
Losses: Jalen Hurts over 195.5 passing yards, Kyle Monangai over 38.5 rushing yards.
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Best Week 11 NFL Player Props & Bets
Last week: 5-2 | Season record: 44-28 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet as of Thursday night.
Josh Allen Over 219.5 Passing Yards
There's been a lot of hand-wringing lately about the Bills not having much of a downfield passing game, and maybe that explains why Allen's passing prop is set so low.
But Allen is completing 70.3% of his passes, which would be a career high if it holds. He's averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt, which would also be a career high. Allen is averaging 237.7 passing yards per game this season, and in home games he's averaging 268.4 passing yards per game. The Bills host the Buccaneers on Sunday.
Alen has fallen short of this number in five of his nine starts this season, but I don't think he'll fall short of it against the Bucs. Tampa Bay has a pass-funnel defense. Opponents are throwing against the Bucs on 60.7% of their offensive snaps — the eighth-highest rate in the league. The Buccaneers are giving up 255 passing yards per game and Baker Mayfield is capable of pushing Allen into a high-scoring shootout.
This one seems like kind of a layup, honestly.
Jameis Winston Over 227.5 Passing Yards
With Jaxson Dart out with a concussion and Russell Wilson largely ineffective in previous appearances, the Giants are giving QB Jameis Winston his first start of the season.
Winston is a passer without a conscience. He's a hyper-aggressive downfield thrower who'll try to shoehorn throws into tight coverage. His style leads to a lot of interceptions — but also a lot of passing yards.
In seven starts for the Browns last season, Winston averaged 291.1 passing yards per game and threw 12 interceptions. In 2019, the last of his five seasons with the Buccaneers, Winston had a league-high 5,109 passing yards and a league-high 30 interceptions. That's who he is as a quarterback.
This leopard can't change his spots. Winston will throw aggressively Sunday against the Packers. He'll probably throw an interception or two, but I'm confident he'll beat this yardage total.
RJ Harvey Under 53.5 Rushing Yards
With J.K. Dobbins expected to miss time with a foot injury, rookie R.J. Harvey is likely to start at running back for the Broncos when they host the Chiefs on Sunday.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton has used Harvey sparingly to this point. Harvey has played less than one-third of the Broncos' offensive snaps in nine of Denver's 10 games, and he's averaging just five carries a game.
While Harvey is probably going to get more than five carries this week with Dobbins out, the rookie is unlikely to get a huge workload. Payton has long favored an RB-by-committee approach that dates back to his long run as the Saints’ head coach. RB Tyler Badie will get work. RB Jaleel McLaughlin will probably get some work, too.
Additionally, the matchup isn't an easy one. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's units are typically stingy against the run. Kansas City is allowing 77.7 rushing yards per game to running backs.
I expect Harvey to have fewer than 15 carries Sunday and to fall short of this number.
Jaylen Waddle Over 77.5 Receiving Yards
Jaylen Waddle has topped 80 receiving yards in five of the six games the Dolphins have played since WR Tyreek Hill's season-ending injury. The only miss was when Waddle had only 15 receiving yards in a rainy, windy game against the Browns in Cleveland.
Waddle's matchup this Sunday is glorious. He faces a flammable Washington pass defense that's giving up a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt. No other team in the league is yielding more than 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Commanders are allowing 177.9 receiving yards per game and 9.9 yards per target to opposing wide receivers.
Bet on Waddle to sail past this number.
Jameson Williams Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
This number would have looked like a mountain for Jameson Williams to climb a few weeks ago. Now it looks like a molehill.
In the seven games before the Lions' Week 8 bye, Williams was averaging 41.3 receiving yards per game and had cleared this number only twice.
But Lions offensive coordinator John Morton publicly took the blame for Williams' slow start and vowed to get Jamo more involved. Coming out of the bye, Williams had four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings.
Then, last week, Lions head coach Dan Campbell took over the playcalling duties from Morton. Williams had six catches for a season-high 119 yards and a touchdown vs. the Commanders.
Lions QB Jared Goff has called Williams a "cheat code" on crossing routes, and Campbell made it a point to have Williams run more crossing routes in Week 10. So far this season, Williams has seven targets, six receptions and 164 yards on crossing routes.
This is a good chance to bet an easily reachable over on Williams' yardage total before the market catches up to what's happening.
DK Metcalf Under 54.5 Receiving Yards
The Steelers haven't had much of a downfield passing game this season with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Early in the season, D.K. Metcalf was putting up some impressive yardage totals, but he was doing it in an unusual way.
During his years in Seattle, Metcalf was a downfield receiver. He would get a lot of air yards but not a lot of yardage after the catch. Early this season, Metcalf was catching a lot of short passes and doing damage after the catch.
However, that formula no longer seems to be working. Metcalf has had 55 or fewer receiving yards in four straight games, averaging 5.8 targets, 3.3 catches and 36.5 receiving yards a game over that span.
While Metcalf's Week 11 matchup against the Bengals looks good on paper, it might not be as good as it appears. Metcalf is probably going to get shadow coverage from cornerback D.J. Turner, one of the few bright spots on the Cincinnati defense. Turner has allowed a sub-50% catch rate and a passer rating of 78.4 on throws into his coverage. When Metcalf faced the Bengals a few weeks ago, Turner covered Metcalf on 78% of his routes. Metcalf finished with just three catches for 50 yards.
I think the under is a good percentage play based on the downward trajectory of Metcalf's season.