Top 6 NFL Player Props & Bets: Week 4 Picks (2025)
Week 3 was a good one for our player prop selections, but it was close to being a great one.
We went 6-3. The losses were tough ones.
We liked the over on CeeDee Lamb's receiving yardage in a juicy matchup against the Bears, but Lamb left early with an ankle injury. An Under bet on C.J. Stroud's rushing yardage lost by two yards when Stroud scrambled for 12 yards with 50 seconds left in the game. We lost an Under bet on Tyrone Tracy's rushing yardage by a single yard (though in fairness, Tracy probably would have gone over by more had he not dislocated his shoulder).
So it is with props. We tend to curse our bad luck on the narrow misses and not acknowledge our good fortune on the bets that just barely come in for us.
We'll dive into Week 4 in a moment. But before we get to this week’s selections, the full recap of Week 3 ...
Wins: Bryce Young under 212.5 yards, Jake Browning under 240.5 passing yards, Jordan Mason over 78.5 rushing yards, Cam Skattebo over 34.5 rushing yards, Matthew Golden over 31.5 receiving yards, Jaylen Warren over 22.5 receiving yards
Losses: C.J. Stroud under 20.5 rushing yards, Tyrone Tracy under 28.5 rushing yards, CeeDee Lamb over 79.5 receiving yards
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NFL Best Week 4 Player Props and Bets
Last week: 6-3 | Season record: 14-8 | All odds are BettingPros consensus odds as of Thursday night.
Trevor Lawrence Under 230.5 Passing Yards
The Jacksonville passing game has been out of sync for the first three weeks of the season. Lawrence is completing 55.8% of his passes and averaging 5.9 yards per attempt. Star WR Brian Thomas Jr. has caught only 28% of his targets and seems to have a case of the yips.
San Francisco doesn't seem like a good place for Lawrence and the Jaguars to figure things out. They'll be traveling cross-country to face a 49ers pass defense that ranks eighth in DVOA, has given up the fourth fewest passing yards, and is allowing just 5.6 yards per pass attempt.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet approves of this one, projecting Lawrence to fall 12 yards short of the mark.
J.K. Dobbins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
Dobbins has topped this number in all three of his games this season. He's averaging 13.7 carries and 74.0 rushing yards per game, and 5.4 yards per carry. NFL Next Gen Stats credits Dobbins with 51 rushing yards over expected this season, 10th-most in the league.
Dobbins' home game against the Bengals looks like a great spot. The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites and figure to have a run-friendly game script.
The Bengals have given up 110.3 rushing yards per game to RBs (sixth-most in the league) and 4.5 yards per carry. Minnesota's Jordan Mason gashed Cincinnati for 116 rushing yards on only 16 carries last week.
David Montgomery Under 50.5 Rushing Yards
Monty's rushing prop is probably being overinflated by his splashy 151-yard rushing performance against the Ravens in Week 3's high-profile Monday night game.
Montgomery hasn't had more than 12 rushing attempts in a game this season, and he shares work with star RB Jahmyr Gibbs, who's out-carried Montgomery 43-34 this year.
Additionally, Montgomery has a tough matchup against a nasty Cleveland defense. The Browns' defense ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the run and has allowed a league-low 42.7 rushing yards per game to RBs. Opposing running backs are averaging just 2.2 yards per carry against Cleveland.
Tetairoa McMillan Under 72.5 Receiving Yards
McMillan has been impressive early in his rookie year, but he's only cleared this number in one of his three games. He's averaging 72 receiving yards per contest, which makes this number seem true.
However, the matchup is the key to this one. McMillan faces the Patriots, who are getting CB Christian Gonzalez back from a hamstring injury. Gonzalez is one of the better cover men in the league, and he'll get a lot of face time with McMillan on Sunday. In 2024, Gonzalez allowed only 46 catches and 499 receiving yards on throws into his coverage.
I don’t think McMillan hits this number in a brutal matchup.
Keenan Allen Over 45.5 Receiving Yards
The 33-year-old Allen has been drinking from the Fountain of Youth. He has 19 catches for 194 yards and three touchdowns on a team-high 28 targets. Allen has produced at least 61 receiving yards in all three of his games this season.
As my colleague Derek Brown notes in his Week 4 installment of The Primer, Allen has a 25% target share and is averaging an impressive 1.98 yards per route run.
Allen faces a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers this season, and the Giants have been especially vulnerable against slot receivers.
This is my favorite play of the week. Allen should clear this number with ease.
Brock Bowers Over 52.5 Receiving Yards
Bowers has produced 38 receiving yards in each of his last two games, which might explain why this number is so low for a tight end who had 112 catches and a record 1,194 receiving yards as a rookie. He's also been dealing with a minor knee injury that he sustained in Week 1.
With at least four receptions in each of his first three games, Bowers has been getting a steady diet of work. He'll be at home Sunday against a Bears defense that has allowed 24 receptions to tight ends, tied for most in the league.
The number here is irresistible. I'll happily bet on a great player to clear a relatively low bar.