Top 7 Player Props Based on NFL Records + Contract Incentives (2022)
With most fantasy leagues done for the season, a lot of football diehards eager for action will dive into player props this weekend. Week 18 is always a little weird, a little wacky. Not only do we have to weigh talent, matchups, and momentum, but we also need to consider motivation. What do players have at stake?
The playoffs are the most obvious motivational consideration, but we should also consider two other things players care about: money and glory.
Some players are close to hitting contract incentives based on statistical benchmarks. Others are trying to break records or keep streaks alive. Here are a few player props to consider based on those motivational factors.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Kyle Pitts OVER 61.5 receiving yards
Mike Ditka’s rookie yardage record for tight ends (1,076 yards) has stood since 1961. Pitts is only 59 yards away from breaking it, and that target number dovetails nicely with Pitts’ Week 18 yardage prop. Pitts has topped this number in each of his last three games.
Mark Andrews OVER 69.5 receiving yards
Travis Kelce holds the record for most receiving yards in a season by a tight end, finishing with 1,416 yards in 2020. Andrews needs 141 yards in the Ravens’ season finale to break the record. It’s a long shot, yes, but it’s not completely far-fetched. Andrews had a 147-yard game against the Colts in Week 5, and he’s gone over the 100-yard mark on four other occasions this season. Since the start of November, Andrews has averaged 9.7 targets and 6.9 catches a game. He’s gone over 100 yards on three of his last four games, averaging 116.3 yards over that stretch.
Mike Evans OVER 71.5 receiving yards
Evans has topped 1,000 yards every year he’s been in the league and needs 54 yards for an eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season. The Buccaneers have at least some motivation to play hard against the Panthers on Sunday. They’re guaranteed at least one home playoff game as the No. 4 seed but could jump up to the No. 2 seed if they win and the Rams lose to the 49ers. Chris Godwin is done for the season with a torn ACL, and the Buccaneers had a messy, high-profile divorce with Antonio Brown last week, so Evans should see plenty of targets Sunday against the Panthers.
A.J. Green OVER 53.5 receiving yards
After a disappointing year with the Bengals in 2020, Green signed a modest, incentive-laden one-year contract with the Cardinals in March. Green has already hit some of the incentives, and he’s within reach of at least one other. He can earn an extra $250,000 by finishing with 60 or more catches and another $250,000 for finishing with 900 or more yards. Green enters Week 18 with 50 catches for 825 yards. It’s unlikely he’ll get 10 receptions to trigger the 60-catch bonus, but the 900-yard bonus is well within reach. The Cardinals face the Seahawks and are hoping to improve their playoff seeding, so they’re motivated. When Green faced the Seahawks in Week 11, he had four catches for 78 yards.
Rob Gronkowski OVER 67.5 receiving yards
Gronk is within reach of several contract incentives, each of which would be worth $500,000. His targets: 55 receptions, 750 yards, and nine touchdowns. Gronk has 48 catches for 665 yards and six touchdowns, so he needs a 7-85-3 game Sunday against the Panthers to hit the trifecta. A three-TD game may be a stretch, but seven catches and 85 yards are both doable, especially with Tampa Bay WRs Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the picture.
Stefon Diggs OVER 6.5 receptions
Diggs has 94 catches for 1,144 yards. He could earn an extra $658,333 by finishing with 100 catches and another $658,333 by finishing with 1,375 yards. A 231-yard game in the Bills’ regular-season finale against the Jets is unrealistic. But Diggs could easily catch six passes, and if he catches six, why not seven to hit the over on this bet? (And by the way, the over on 6.5 catches was +100 on DraftKings as of Saturday morning.) Diggs has caught seven or more passes seven times this season, and when he faced the Jets in Week 10, he had eight catches for 162 yards.
Cooper Kupp OVER 118.5 receiving yards
This may be a case where a personal incentive is actually moving the number, which was 116.5 on Friday. Kupp needs 136 yards to break the NFL record for single-season receiving yardage. Calvin Johnson had 1,964 receiving yards for the Lions in 2012. Kupp is at 1,829 yards. The Rams can earn the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win over the 49ers on Sunday, so they’re not going to get cute and force-feed Kupp just to get him the record. They don’t need to, because Kupp is a huge part of the Rams’ offensive gameplan every week. He’s averaging 114.3 receiving yards per game and has racked up more than 118 yards seven times this season. He’s had 136 yards or more on three different occasions. Kupp had 11 catches for 122 yards when he faced the 49ers in Week 10. San Francisco’s best slot cornerback, K’Waun Williams, is on the COVID-19 list, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to play on Sunday.
View the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
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