Top Chiefs vs. Packers NFL Sunday Night Football Picks & Predictions (Week 13)
Let’s dive into Sunday Night Football for Week 13 and look at our top pick for Chiefs vs. Packers. We’ll provide the betting outlook for each team along with our best bet for tonight’s Sunday Night Football matchup.
NFL Sunday Night Football Picks
Packers Outlook
The Week 13 edition of SNF brings intrigue on both sidelines, as the Chiefs have their sights set on supplanting the Ravens for the #1 seed in the AFC and the Packers look to remain in the NFC Wild Card race. Green Bay has really changed the trajectory of their season in recent weeks, winning 3 of their last 4 with Jordan Love playing at a much higher level than he did early in the season. The Packers have been pretty middling on both sides of the ball, with an offense that ranks 18th in both points and yards per drive and a defense that ranks 15th in points allowed per drive and 22nd in yards allowed per drive. Love ranks 15th in the league in net yards per attempt and has tossed 19 TD passes, which is good for 9th in the league. They rank 19th in terms of net yard per rush, which is honestly not bad considering the loss of the dynamic Aaron Jones. They've also done a pretty good job of taking care of the ball, as their 12 turnovers rank 6th among all teams. Defensively they've been a little bit more susceptible to the run, as they rank 14th in net yards allowed per pass attempt but 23rd in yards allowed per rush. They have not really been able to generate turnovers though, ranking just 25th with only 12 generated turnovers. Overall though, I like what I've seen out of this Packers team in recent weeks as they've been playing much better and Love has grown confidence and established connections with his young receivers.
Chiefs Outlook
The Chiefs are once again Super Bowl contender and perhaps more dangerous than ever this year with one of the best defenses in the NFL. They rank in the top-5 in both points and yards allowed, 1st downs allowed and net yards allowed per pass attempt. Though they rank 28th in yards allowed per rush attempt, opponents usually find themselves in trailing game scripts against the Chiefs and they've conceded the 9th-fewest rushing TDs to their opponents. Offensively, everyone is now more aware than ever that they are severely lacking at the WR position, as their receivers have dropped the most passes of any other WR group in the league and potentially cost them a win against the Eagles on MNF in Week 11. That being said, they rank 6th in yards per drive and 9th in points per drive, and Mahomes has still been able to orchestrate a passing attack that ranks 8th in net yards per pass attempt and 5th in passing TDs. Isiah Pacheco has also spearheaded a rushing attack that I find underrated, as KC ranks around league average in most rushing categories. I do think that the Chiefs end up jumping Baltimore for the 1 seed by the end of the season and although their WR corps has had their issues, Mahomes seems to have found a reliable target in Rashee Rice over recent weeks.
Best Bet
Though the Packers offense has looked much improved in their 3 most recent wins, that came against pretty poor defenses in the Rams, Chargers and Lions. Kansas City's defense is unquestionably a tougher task, and I think they'll be able to put pressure on Love and make life difficult for the Green Bay offense. On the other side of the ball, GB's pass defense is more stout than its rushing defense, which is obviously a better matchup against the Chiefs offense. If the Chiefs do decide to go with a more run-heavy gameplan, that only helps a play on the under as it will keep the clock moving and shorten the game. Additionally, the trends (listed below) for these primetime games heavily support a play on the under.
- Island/stand-alone games: 34-13 to the Under
- "Primetime" night games: 29-9 to the Under
- SNF/MNF games: 23-3 to the Under
Pick: Under 43
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