Top College Basketball Picks for Saturday January 8th
We are now into the thick of conference play in the 2021-22 season. This weekend we feature some really interesting matchups, especially one in a Big East that could be heavily represented come March.
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Purdue vs. Penn State: Pick Purdue -9
Tip 12 p.m. ET
The trio of Jaden Ivey, Zach Edey, and Trevion Williams has been amazing as they are all on the Wooden Award watchlist. All three’s ability to score has them as the third-best offense in the country with 85.9 points per game and play solid defense by allowing just a 40.6 shooting percentage. Penn State will go into this out-sized on the board as they don’t have anyone who can match up with the 7-foot-4 Edey, who’s averaging 7.5 rebounds per game, along with Williams, who averages 8.4.
Penn State had not played consistent basketball during the early part of the season, but during their three-week break due to COVID-19 issues, they made some adjustments, and it’s worked. They’ve won two straight, and the defense has looked much better. This team has a ton of experience, and they use that chemistry to slow down the offense’s tempo as they’re ranked 348th in adjusted tempo.
Where Penn State matches up worse is their three-point defense. They are near the bottom of the country by allowing teams to shoot 34.2% from behind the arc, and Purdue is one of the better three-point shooting as they average 41.1% from deep, while 34.9% of its point production comes from three-point range. That and the talent in the frontcourt is going to leave the Nittany Lions outmatched.
UConn vs. Seton Hall: Pick Seton Hall -3.5
Tip 12 p.m. ET
UConn will be playing their first game since December 21st as they had a serious COVID-19 outbreak within the program. It looks like the team will have star forward Adama Sanogo in the lineup as he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue. He instantly boosts the team’s talent, especially in the paint with 1.7 blocks per game and a team-leading 54.9 field goal percentage.
Seton Hall is coming into this matchup losing two of their last three games, but those losses were without Tyrese Samuel and Ike Obiagu in the frontcourt. With their return, they dominated with a 71-56 win over Butler and outbound them by 11.
The Pirates have the advantage as they are playing at full strength and are looking like one of the better teams in the conference. The absence of Obiagu and Samuel was critical, as opponents scored over each time — that only happened twice \when one of them plays. We’re not sure if Sanogo is 100% healthy and his impact on this game. Even with him, the Pirates still have the advantage down low.
Virginia vs. UNC: Pick UNC -6.5
Tip 1 p.m. ET
While the slow-tempo offense of Virginia has remained the same this season, the execution has not. The Cavaliers have been struggling to put up the points this as they ranked 78th in adjusted offense according to KenPom. This unit likes to facilitate the ball till they find an open shot, but being in the middle of the pack in field goal percentage and near the bottom in three-point percentage, they need to figure out what’s wrong if they want any chance to return to their national championship form.
As bad as Virginia’s offense is, you can say that about North Carolina’s defense. Ranked 79th In adjusted defense, they have not been to stop anyone this season. Thankfully their offense bails them out as they top 40 points per game, and they can crash the boards as they lead the ACC in rebounds per game.
As bad as it is, UNC’s defense will not be challenged by the struggles of Virginia’s offense. With the Tar Heel’s toughness on the boards, the Cavaliers will not get second chances if they have another cold shooting night. UNC’s outstanding offense should be able to put this away.
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