Top Dark Horse Odds, Picks & Predictions: College Football Playoff (2022)
Cinderella is more often a theme in college basketball’s March Madness than college football. Nevertheless, there are several teams that not only have a fair path to the playoff but have a fighter’s chance once they’re there.
Let’s take a look at a few teams who might just fit that glass slipper.
Thor Nystrom’s College Football Power Rankings for Every Team >>
Utah (+8000)
While other annual Pac-12 contenders are in states of flux following the departure of Cristobal at Oregon and the arrival of Riley at USC, Utah is the picture of the stability under Whittingham. Utah also returns 71% of their offensive production, including QB Cam Rising, 2 NFL-caliber TEs in Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe, and RB Tavion Thomas who will spearhead a bruising rush offense that ranked 2nd nationally at 5.6 yards/rush last year.
Though Utah has had a few key departures on defense (notably linebacker Devin Lloyd), Utah gained key transfers in Mohamoud Diabate and Gabe Reid and is primed to be among the stouter defenses in the conference again after ranking 32nd nationally in points allowed per game last year.
While the Pac-12 has struggled to earn respect both nationally and in the eyes of the Playoff Committee in recent years, an away win over SEC-brand Florida and a semi-comfortable march through the conference schedule should be enough to earn the Pac-12 its first playoff berth since the 2016–2017 season.
Arkansas (+15000)
Arkansas showed amazing year-to-year improvements last season under Sam Pittman. Look for that momentum to carry into this season. KJ Jefferson is one of the best QBs in the conference, showing both Big Ben-esque escapability and down-field accuracy (67.3% completion percentage, 21 TDs to 4 INTs). The bread and butter of this team will of course be the run game though. Arkansas led the SEC in rushing at 223 ypg, as they should again this year between Jefferson’s scrambles, a stable of quality backs, and 4 returning starters from the offensive line. Defensively, they are buoyed by a strong back-7, led by returning leading-tackler LB Bumper Pool and DB Jalen Catalon (99 total tackles, 3 INTs in 2020).
While Arkansas does play in the vaunted SEC West, they avoid the best of the East in UGA, TN and UK. They also have a very respectable yet winnable out-of-conference schedule thanks to ties with Cincinnati, BYU and Liberty. With that schedule, Arkansas will have compelling Strength of Schedule and Strength of Record metrics come December. The Committee will be hard-pressed to put a 1-loss PAC-12, Big XII or ACC champion over even a 2-loss Arkansas. Once they’re in, I like Arkansas to go toe-to-toe with anyone.
Woo-Pig.
BYU (+50000)
No potential Cinderella list would be complete without a mid-major/non-AQ school pick, and we find ours in BYU. BYU entered 2021 returning just 16% of their defensive production according to Bill Connelly’s formula, ranking dead last. Those losses were sorely felt: BYU dropped to 51st in scoring defense and 106th in 3rd down conversion percentage defense. This year, however, BYU returns 97% of its defensive production, best in the country, and that experience should pay dividends this year.
Offensively, BYU returns 80% of its 2021 production (ranked 28th) including All-American Clark Barrington and the rest of the starting line, while adding in two potential impact transfers to the line as well. This unit will open up big holes and give elusive QB Jarren Hall (64% completion, 156.1 rating, 2583 yds in 10 games). the opportunity to make big plays.
The schedule appears daunting with matchups against Notre Dame, Oregon, Baylor and Arkansas. However, BYU gets Baylor and Arkansas in Provo and Notre Dame in Las Vegas. Throw in the fact that both Oregon and Notre Dame are led by new head coaches and QBs (counting the ever-unreliable Bo Nix) and the fact that Baylor’s proven playmakers and best defensive talent are gone, and these games seem a lot more winnable. After just missing out in 2020, a 4-0 finish in these winnable games would surely book BYU a spot in this year’s Playoff.
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