Top MLB Bet for April 15

With an uninspiring Monday slate from a betting perspective, I will look at both the moneyline and the over/under in our game of the day. It is never a good idea to place action just for the sake of it, so today I will focus on the most appealing game on the schedule. This matchup has two teams in much different form, despite their records indicating otherwise. The play here can be used as a single bet or as part of a parlay with NBA or NHL action.  

Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

 

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Cincinnati Reds	5-9	22	3.7	+6
Los Angeles Dodgers	9-8	1	6.4	+22

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Luis Castillo	1-1	0.92	0.66
Clayton Kershaw	N/A	N/A	N/A

Form

The Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the Cincinnati Reds in one of tonight’s late games. The Dodgers have been the stronger team this season, sitting at a solid, but relatively disappointing 9-8. Only the Mariners have scored more runs per game than the Dodgers, who hold the National League’s highest run differential. Their rock-solid +22 margin could be much higher if not for some pitching woes in recent games.

While the Reds are currently saddled with a 5-9 record, They possess a +6 run differential despite their losing record. This is largely because of some excellent pitching performances; they have allowed two runs or fewer six times this season. The Dodgers have won only one of their last seven contests. The Reds, on the other hand, have won four of their last five. The Reds surprisingly hold the edge in the team form arena.

The pitching form department reveals that an under play might be in order. A returning Clayton Kershaw is a known quantity. This is his first start of the season, but he’s annually one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy. Luis Castillo has been on fire to commence the year. Lights out after the All-Star break last season, he appears to have carried his momentum over to 2019. His 0.92 ERA and 0.66 WHIP are outstanding, but they do not give full context. He has 25 strikeouts in 19.2 innings over three starts. However, he also allowed seven walks in his first two starts before holding the Marlins to just one. In most cases, Castillo vs. Kershaw would give us an easy lean. Based on Catillo’s form and Kershaw’s potential rustiness, this is much closer than one would expect.

Trends
With Kershaw making his first start of the season and the Reds deploying the scorching Castillo, it would be wise to take a look not only at the moneyline, but the over/under in this contest. The trends offer solid arguments for both sides. The Reds are 10-4 in their last 14 games against the National League West. They have won eight of their last 11 contests against an opponent that scored five or more runs in their previous game. They’re 7-1 in Castillo’s last eight starts to begin a series.

On the flip side, the Reds are 5-16 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning record. That is not where the unfavorable trends end. They have won just one of their last seven Monday games and one of their last eight games following a loss. The Reds have dropped each of their last four games against a left-handed starting pitcher.

The Dodgers are 4-1 in their last five games following a win and are 10-3 in their last 13 home games against a right-handed starter. They are 9-3 in Kershaw’s last 12 starts against the NL Central. The Dodgers sit at 38-14 in his last 52 starts against a team with a losing record.

However, the Dodgers are 1-6 in their last seven against the NL Central and hold the same record in their last seven against a right-handed starter. The under is 3-0-2 in their last five Monday games and 4-0-1 in Kershaw’s last five home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last four starts against the Reds and 4-1 in his last five home starts against them.

Interestingly, there are also some trends in support of the over in his starts. The over is 7-0-1 in Kershaw’s last eight turns against a team with a losing record. It is 3-0-1 in his last four starts against the NL Central. Furthermore, the under is 19-9-1 in the Dodgers’ last 29 games against a pitcher with a WHIP under 1.15. With that said, the over is 9-3-1 in the Dodgers’ last 13 contests following a victory and 7-3 in their last 10 home games.

The total trends on the Reds side provide an edge. The under is undefeated in their last eight games against a lefty. It is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. The under is also 6-1 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record. Solidifying matters is the fact that the Reds have won all of Castillo’s last four starts against a team with a winning record. The under has paid out in seven of his last eight starts overall and four of his last five road starts. Based on trends, the under looks like the strongest play here.

Line
The odds in this contest are interesting. On one hand, we have the far superior overall team with a three-time Cy Young Award winner at -170. The Reds, meanwhile, have a hot pitcher taking the mound for them and sit at +145. It is very telling that despite the presence of one of baseball’s top scoring clubs, this contest has the lowest over/under of the day at 7.0 runs even. The odds on the under currently sit at +105. This suggests the early money has been on the over (-125). Seventy-eight percent of the public is currently on the Dodgers moneyline, but this contest appears to be much tighter than what the percentage suggests.

The trends here suggest a Reds victory is much more plausible than the odds dictate, making them an intriguing value play. The trends on the total suggest this contest could very well hit the under, and pitcher form seems to support that. The -170 is too large for Kershaw’s first start of the season, especially against Castillo. However, betting against one of the best aces baseball has to offer is never a wise position. The under is the suggested play that seems to present the most value.

Pick: Under

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 9-7 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.