Top MLB Bet for April 17

With another tough slate from a betting perspective, we will focus on my top play of the day. This contest provides appeal not only on the moneyline, but also on the over/under. Although both teams from this interleague matchup are .500 or better on the season, they are in much different form. These plays can be used in a single bet, in parlays together, or with NBA or NHL action.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Pittsburgh Pirates	9-6	20	3.7	+4
Detroit Tigers	8-8	25	2.9	-11

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Trevor Williams	1-0	2.45	0.98
Spencer Turnbull	0-2	4.80	1.53

Form
The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to do battle with the Detroit Tigers in an evening affair. The Pirates have been the stronger team on the season in terms of record. They’re currently 9-6 while the Tigers are a respectable 8-8.

Both teams have scored under four runs per game. The visiting Pirates sit at a solid enough 3.7 mark. The Tigers, on the other hand, have scored the AL’s fewest runs per contest. The Pirates also hold a slight edge in runs allowed, giving them the better scoring differential. Detroit has been on a bit of a slide recently, losing five of its last six contests. In much better recent form, the Pirates have won four of their last six and eight of their last 11. They won the first game of this series, 5-3, in extra innings on Monday night. The Pirates hold a distinct advantage in the team form department.

Pittsburgh will send out Trevor Williams, a pitcher who has shown good flashes. Detroit will counter with the inconsistent Spencer Turnbull. Through three starts apiece, Williams has been the better pitcher. He currently holds a terrific 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, and Pittsburgh has won all of his outings. Turnbull, on the other hand, sits at a much less impressive 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP despite compiling 19 strikeouts in 15 innings. There is really no comparison in the starting pitcher arena. The Pirates hold a significant advantage.

Trends
The trends for this contest suggest overwhelming leans. Pittsburgh is 6-1 in its last seven games against a right-handed starting pitcher and is an equally impressive 7-2 in the last nine road games against a team with a winning home record. The most impressive? The Pirates sit at 24-8 in their last 32 interleague games. Williams provides the Pirates an additional edge on the mound. They are undefeated in his last five interleague starts. Rounding out the positive Williams trends, the Pirates are 6-2 in his last eight road starts and 5-1 in his last six starts overall.

The Tigers, meanwhile, are 5-11 in their last 16 interleague games against a right-handed starting pitcher. They’re 16-36 in their last 52 against a pitcher with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have won seven of their last 10 Wednesday games and are 11-27 in their last 38 home games against a team with a winning road record. Think things couldn’t possibly get worse? The Tigers are winless in their last five games against the NL Central, as well as their last five interleague games against a team with a winning record. They are also winless in their last four contests against a right-handed starter and their last four overall. Based on trends, the Pirates are the clear lean in terms of moneyline.

The over/under analysis also provides a strong lean for Pittsburgh. The under is 5-0 in the Pirates’ last five road games against a right-handed starter. It is 9-1 during their last 10 second games of a series and 6-2 in their last eight Wednesday games. The under is 19-9 in the Pirates’ last 28 road games and 21-10 in their last 31 against the AL Central. Solidifying the Pirates’ based under lean is the under being 18-4 in Williams’ last 22 starts with four days’ rest. The under has paid out in four of his last five starts against the AL Central. The under is also 7-2 in Williams’ past nine road starts and 6-2 in his last eight interleague outings.

Detroit offers more of a mixed bag in terms of an over/under lean. The over has prevailed in each of their last four interleague games and is 7-2 in the Tigers’ last nine Wednesday bouts. On the flip side, the under is 8-2 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. It is 4-1-1 in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record. Cementing the under as what looks like a potential upside play, it is 11-5 in the Tigers’ last 16 contests overall. They brandish the same mark in recent games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Finally, the under is 7-3 in their last 10 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.

Line
The lines in this contest are interesting. For starters, everything in this contest screams that the over/under may present a solid value. A total of 8.0 runs at -110 (the default juice at Bovada.lv) in a contest where the averages of both teams and starting pitchers do not total eight should present some surface intrigue at the very least. As we saw in the trends analysis, the under looks like a solid lean. Turnbull remains the wild card, as he can give up more than his share of the total by himself.

The spread on this contest also offers surprising value. Williams is the clear superior pitcher on a team that has played both better overall and recently. The -115 line screams trap. Trend analysis revealed that Williams should get an easy win in this contest, providing he can avoid being victimized by the long ball. Most of the public (68%) agrees. The play here is both the Pirates’ moneyline and the under. A parlay with both is currently +256.92.

Pick: Pirates and Under

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 9-7-1 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.