Top MLB Bet for April 19

Today’s slate has an interesting couple of games to choose from. What looks like the best bet of the day has been placed at -230 odds, necessitating a look elsewhere outside of parlays. The top matchup looks like an easy read at first glance, but some of the numbers suggest a different tale. The play here can be used as a single-game bet or a parlay with NBA, NHL, or the -230 action on Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros against the Texas Rangers.

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	9-8	6	5.82	+12
Miami Marlins	4-15	30	2.52	-49

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Anibal Sanchez	0-1	4.86	1.50
Caleb Smith	1-0	2.65	0.88

Form
The Washington Nationals are set to square off against their division rival Miami Marlins. Washington has been the better team on the season at 9-8. They are top five in the league in runs scored and have a healthy enough run differential. As expected, the Marlins are off to a poor start. They sit at the bottom of the NL East with MLB’s worst record. Along with dropping nine of their last 10, they carry baseball’s worst run differential this season. They also place at the very bottom in scoring. The Nationals are 4-2 on the road, and the Marlins are 3-10 at home.

The Nationals will send a struggling Anibal Sanchez to the mound, and the Marlins will counter with the surging Caleb Smith. Sanchez had arguably the best season of his career with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. However, he has yet to truly find his footing as a member of the Nationals. With a pair of rough outings against the Philadelphia Phillies, he holds an unsightly 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through three starts. Sanchez was hit for four runs in four innings in his opening start. He has since calmed down aside from allowing three long balls. Facing the Marlins presents a good chance for Sanchez to get his first win of the season.

Smith has had a strong start to 2019. He is currently sporting a 2.65 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9 through three starts. Although no stranger to a strong string of games, he has yet to put it all together on a consistent basis. While he does have good stuff, the Nationals’ powerful offense may present some problems despite pitching at home.

Trends
There are some interesting trends on both sides of the table in this contest. The Nationals are 5-2 in their last seven against the NL East. They are 12-5 in their last 17 against a team with a winning percentage under the .400 mark. They currently sport an undefeated record in their last four contests against a team that gave up five or more runs in their previous game.

We also have some intriguing trends from a negative perspective. The Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven contests against a left-handed starting pitcher. They’re 3-8 in their last 11 contests following a win. Furthermore, they have lost each of their last six games on Friday. Perhaps most damning is the fact that they are 1-5 in their last six games against a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. The Nationals, however, are 9-3 in their last 12 contests in Miami. Given that Sanchez joined the Nationals in free agency this winter, there are no trends of note relating to him.

On the Marlins side, we have some expected trends, but also some surprising ones. The Marlins are 15-36 in their last 51 against the NL East. They hold the same mark following a loss. They have won two of their last seven games against a team with a winning record. Friday has not been kind to them, as they are 3-10 in their last 13 games before welcoming the weekend. The Marlins are 1-4 in their last five games against a right-handed starting pitcher. They’re an equally poor 1-5 in their last six home games against a team with a winning record. Finally, they are winless in their last four home games.

Smith has not only form, but some trends behind him as a strong potential edge for the Marlins. They are 5-2 in his last seven starts and an impressive 5-1 when he pitches after recording a quality start. However, they’re 2-5 in his last seven starts against the NL East. The Nationals get the nod here based on trends.

Line
If there is a game in this series that the Marlins are going to steal, this is likely it. The -123 odds here reflect that. Although 78 percent of the public is currently supporting the Nationals, the Marlins line has dipped from +120 to +103. This suggests that the sharps believe Smith at +120 presented value that was too good to pass up. This could end up a tightly contested game, and the over/under dropping from 8.0 to 7.5 supports that notion. However, Smith will face one of the league’s most potent lineups and will likely need the Marlins to double their average run output to pick up a win. The Nationals are the pick here, but it is closer than one would think just by looking at team names.

Pick: Washington Nationals

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-7-1 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.