Top MLB Bet for April 22

Moneyline or over/under. That is the question we will debate as we attempt to establish a lean. Today’s game of the day is an interesting one. It features two pitchers who has proven to be great options when they are in form. One of the pitchers involved has yet to find his form this season, while the other is pitching as well as you’d expect the former to be doing. Team records here are a bit misleading, as their recent form and overall talent are not reflected. This is an interesting contest that suggests there may not be a definitive edge to gain. Let’s dig deeper.

Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Detroit Tigers	10-10	25	3.05	-13
Boston Red Sox	9-13	5	4.22	-38

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Matt Boyd	1-1	2.96	1.11
Chris Sale	0-4	8.50	1.56

 
Form
The Detroit Tigers will face off against the Boston Red Sox in an evening affair. The Tigers sit at 10-10, while the Boston Red Sox sit at 9-13. Boston has scored a solid 4.22 runs per game on the season, but have a spectacle worthy -38 run differential. The Tigers have scored only 3.05, but have a much more digestible -13 run differential. Boston has won three straight games, while the Tigers have won only three of their last ten contests. The Red Sox are surprisingly in better form at this point in the season despite their record and run differential indicating otherwise.

The red hot Matt Boyd will take the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and the Boston Red Sox will counter with struggling ace Chris Sale. Surprisingly, Matt Boyd has been the better pitcher on the season. He sits at a 1-1 mark through four starts and sports a sparkling 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He has allowed just seven walks on the season, with three of them coming in one start. Even more impressive is his eye-opening 36 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. Boyd gives the Tigers an excellent chance in this matchup.

Chris Sale has been atrocious this season. He has an 0-4 record that is all the more remarkable when you consider that Sale lost only four games total in 27 2018 starts. He sits with an ugly 8.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His .492 xFIP is equally horrendous. Sale has not been anywhere close to this bad since September of 2016 when he went 0-4 with a 5.04 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through five starts. Sale has had only one strong start this season but got zero run support in the contest. Boyd has been in much better form this season and gives the Tigers a better chance in this contest than the odds may suggest.

Trends
With this contest looking like it could go either way we will take a look at both moneyline and over/under trends. On the Tigers side, we have some intriguing trends. The Tigers are 6-1 in their last seven games against a team with a losing record. They sit at 4-1 in Boyd’s last five starts following a team loss. The Tigers sit at 6-2 in his last eight starts on grass. On the other side of the coin, there are quite a few trends supporting a Tigers loss. They sit at 2-6 in their last eight overall. The Tigers sit at the same mark in their last eight against a left-handed starting pitcher. They are winless in their last four Monday games, as well as their last four outings against a left-handed starter. They are 6-17 in Boyd’s last 23 road starts.

On the Red Sox side of things, there are some intriguing trends in support of a victory. The Red Sox are a surprising 4-0 in their last four games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. They are 17-4 in their last 21 home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. They are 9-3 in their last 12 Monday games. Aside from the aforementioned trend of Boston being winless in Sale’s last four starts, there are some trends that support a Sale victory. The Red Sox are undefeated in his last four starts against the AL Central. They are 7-3 in his last ten home starts and are 10-4 in his last fourteen games with five days of rest. The trends here support a Red Sox victory in this contest.

The over/under trends are interesting and provide ammo for both sides. The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last seven road games against a left-handed starting pitcher. It is 4-0 in their last four games against a lefty, and 4-1 in their last five game ones of a series. The over is 3-0-2 in Boyd’s last five starts during game one of a series and is 5-1-2 in his last eight starts following a team loss in the previous contest. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last four Monday games. It is 8-1 in their last nine road games, and 19-7 in their last 26 against the AL East. The under is also 6-1 in Boyd’s last seven against the AL East.

The Red Sox have seen the over hit in four (4-0-2) of their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. The over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games against a left-handed starting pitcher. It is 12-5-2 in their last 19 home games. Most impressively, it is 37-15-3 in their last 55 against a team with a starter with a WHIP lower than 1.15. The over has also surprisingly been hit in more of Sale’s starts than one would expect. It is 5-0-2 in his last seven home starts and 7-2-2 in his last 11 overall. The over is 7-1-1 in his last nine starts during a game one of a series. It is 4-1 in his last five starts against the AL Central.

There are a couple of trends in support of the under. The Red Sox are 5-2 at hitting the under in their last seven overall. The under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 Monday games.

Line
The line is this contest speaks volumes as to what Vegas expects to transpire in this contest. The Red Sox are -230 favorites, while the Tigers are an appealing +195. The Red Sox have been the better team on the season in terms of team form. Matt Boyd, however, has been much more locked in than Chris Sale. Sale is going to get it all figured out as he remains of the best pitchers in baseball. And facing off against a team that struggles to score runs may be the perfect remedy for his current ails. The -230 line makes this a line to avoid. On the other hand, Boyd’s hot start to the season cannot be ignored. He gives the Tigers solid value as a moneyline dart.

The over/under trends do not provide a definitive lean. The over is the easy play based on trends and team form. However, the under may be the play based on some of the above-noted trends and pitcher upside. Sale is one of the best pitchers in the majors, and Boyd has been doing his best Justin Verlander impression. Take a dart on the Tigers moneyline if you feel inclined, but the under seems like the play here. The under is already -115 at this time suggesting the sharps are in on this as an under contest. Act accordingly.

Pick: Under 8.5

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-8-1 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.