Top MLB Bet for April 24

Today’s game of the day has better odds than one may expect. Both teams have been in good form this season, but they profile much differently. The underdog has scored far more runs per game than the favorite. Starting pitchers, however, throw us a curveball, as the home favorite will deploy the much stronger option. Let’s take a look at today’s top play.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Arizona Diamondbacks	13-11	23	5.20	+10
Pittsburgh Pirates	12-9	20	3.47	0

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Merrill Kelly	1-2	4.37	1.46
Jordan Lyles	2-0	0.53	0.88

 

Form
The Arizona Diamondbacks will face the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in the third contest of a four-game series. These two teams have been pretty evenly matched on the season. The D-backs have more total wins, but the Pirates hold the winning percentage edge (.571 to .542). While the Diamondbacks have been more impressive in the run-scoring arena, they have also given up a higher clip per game (4.79). They still have a better run differential on the season than the Pirates, who are currently even with 73 runs scored and allowed. Arizona has won seven of its last nine, including the first two games of this series. The Pirates have dropped their last three contests after previously winning five straight. These teams are fairly even in terms of form, but the D-backs have been better in this series. They also have a more high-powered offense.

Arizona will send Quad-A rookie Merrill Kelly to the mound. Pittsburgh will counter with one of baseball’s hottest pitchers in Jordan Lyles. Kelly is 1-2 through four starts thus far on the season. He holds a slightly below-average 4.37 ERA but pairs it with an unsightly 1.46 WHIP. Kelly has shown upside this season by striking out nine Red Sox and allowing just one run. However, he has been too inconsistent to give the Diamondbacks anything more than a puncher’s chance in terms of edge.

Lyles, on the other hand, has been lights out, allowing only one in three starts this season. The 28-year-old journeyman is destined to come back to earth, but the Diamondbacks present a strong opportunity to keep the good times rolling. He gives the Pirates the edge in the starting pitcher department.

Trends
As may be expected, there are trends in support of a victory from each team. The Diamondbacks are undefeated in their last six against a team with a winning record. They are also undefeated in their last seven road games against teams with winning records. They are 5-2 in their last seven road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. On the other side of the coin, they are 7-15 in their last 22 Wednesday games. They are 3-9 in their last 12 following a contest where they allowed two runs or fewer. Finally, they are 1-6 in their last seven Game 3s of a series.

The Pirates similarly offer a mixed bag of trends. They sit at 4-1 in their last five contests against a team with a winning record. They are 6-2 in their last eight Wednesday games and are 11-4 in their last 15 following a loss. Pittsburgh is an impressive 15-7 in its last 22 home games. On the flip side, the Pirates are 10-21 in their last 31 against the NL West. They’re an equally concerning 1-7 in their last eight home games against a team with a winning record. The trends in this contest provide no definitive lean.

Line
The line in this contest positions the Pirates as the betting favorites. They have been the slightly better team on the season and have the stronger starting pitcher in tonight’s contest. They have also, however, lost two straight, which leaves some value in the -121 line. Sixty-nine percent of the public is currently backing a Pirates victory, but it appears the sharps are on the Diamondbacks, according to early line movement. As alluded to above, the trends do not provide a clear edge for either team. In a contest that’s this close, starting pitchers are where we look for an edge. Lyles has performed much better this season, so he should propel the Pirates to victory.

Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-8-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.