Top MLB Bet for April 26

There is an interesting slate of games today, but one stands out above the rest. With much better odds than one would expect with the reigning NL Cy Young winner taking the mound, this matchup looks like a potential “gimme” at first glance. Let’s dive deeper to see if that first impression holds true.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Milwaukee Brewers	13-11	8	4.73	-11
New York Mets	13-13	12	5.33	-14

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Chase Anderson	2-0	3.00	1.13
Jacob deGrom	2-2	3.68	1.27

Form
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to square off against the New York Mets. Both teams have played fairly well this season. Milwaukee currently sits with a 13-11 record behind an incredible start from Christian Yelich. New York ranks ninth in runs per game but is currently 13-13 on the season. The run differentials for the two teams are similar, with the Mets and Brewers both in the red due to respectively placing 24th and 25th in team ERA. These two teams, however, have been in much different form as of late. The Brewers have dropped seven of their last eight, scoring an average of only 3.37 runs in those contests. The Mets, on the other hand, have won three of their last four home games. New York has been in better form both recently and overall.

The visiting Brewers will send Chase Anderson to the mound. The Mets will counter with reigning NL Cy Young champion Jacob deGrom. Anderson, who just moved back into the rotation, blanked the Dodgers through five in his first start of the season. Despite previously giving up a run in all but one of his relief appearances, he still holds a rock-solid 3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

DeGrom has been a little up and down this season. He looked like his usual dominant self in his first two starts before getting smacked by the Minnesota Twins. They shelled him for a shocking six runs in four innings. He followed that up by allowing an uncharacteristic four free passes to the Atlanta Braves in his next start. After those rough outings snapped a streak of 26 consecutive quality starts, deGrom went on the injured list with elbow discomfort. Returning on Friday night after missing just one turn, he should normalize his average 3.68 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in short order, but it goes to highlight his struggles in those last two outings.

Trends
As one may expect from two teams with records over .500, there are trends in support of both sides in this contest. The Brewers are 20-6 in their last 26 games following an off day and are 35-16 in their last 51 Friday games. They are 36-15 in their last 51 opening games of a series. However, they sit at 1-5 in their last six following a team loss and are winless in their last four road games. They are also winless in their last seven against a right-handed starting pitcher. If that was not bad enough, they have lost each of their last four games against a team with a winning record. Finally, they are 2-5 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record.

There are also some interesting trends related to Anderson taking the mound. The Brewers are 4-1 in his last five Friday starts. They have been hot with him on the mound, going 5-2 in his last seven starts overall. They hold a 4-1 mark in his last five starts following a contest in which the Brew Crew scored two runs or fewer. On the flip side, they are 2-5 in his last seven road starts and 1-4 in his last five on the road against a team with a winning record. They are winless in his last four starts against the NL East.

The Mets also have some intriguing trends to consider. They are undefeated in their last four series openers and are 4-1 in their last five Friday games. They are 5-1 in their last six against a pitcher with a WHIP under 1.15. The Mets boast a 4-1 mark in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. They are 24-9 in their last 33 games following a loss. On the other side of the coin, they are 7-16 in their last 23 against the NL Central. They are 1-5 in their last six when facing a team that allowed five or more runs in their previous contest.

There are also some interesting deGrom trends. They are 2-5 in his last seven starts against the NL Central and are 6-16 in his last 22 home starts. They are 1-4 in his last five starts following a team loss in their previous contest. Of course, these trends should be taken into context, as all but four of those starts are from the 2018 season highlighted by the Mets refusing to provide any run support. On the positive trend side, we have some edge providers. The Mets are 16-5 in his last 21 Friday starts and are 20-8 in his last 28 series openers. Finally, they sit at 5-12 in his last 17 starts following 11 or more days of rest. (He last pitched on April 14.)

Line
The moneyline suggests this contest may be a lot tighter than it appears. A -180 line is still heavy on the juice, but not when arguably the best pitcher in baseball is taking the mound. It’s large enough, however, not to worry about a trap game. Vegas is simply accounting for a Brewers team that’s playing good baseball with a pitcher in good form taking the mound. The Mets have still been in better form recently. They also have the trends behind them. The Mets are the lean for today’s game of the day, and they make for a solid parlay with NBA or NHL action.

Pick: New York Mets

Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-9-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.