Top MLB Bet for August 14th

Today’s play of the day is a battle between two of baseball’s best starting pitchers. The odds for this contest seem too good to be true, but they could simply reflect the visiting team deploying an on-and-off ace who has dominated in spurts this season after a superb 2018. Let’s dig deeper to analyze if the home team is really the right lean, or if there is something hidden that makes the visitors more appealing than one may initially think. 

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Cincinnati Reds	56-62	20	4.56	+36
Washington Nationals	64-55	7	4.99	+50

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Trevor Bauer	10-8	3.74	1.21
Stephen Strasburg	14-5	3.72	1.07

Form
The Cincinnati Reds look to avoid a series sweep against the Washington Nationals. Despite showing signs of promise throughout the season, Cincinnati sits six games under .500. Thanks to a pitching staff that ranks eighth in team ERA, the Reds are the only team with a losing record and positive run differential. Their 39 wins against teams above .500 ties for the third-most in the majors. The Reds have been poor on the road, where they’re 23-34. Cincinnati has won 10 of its last 17 games. However, it has lost three straight games, including the first two of this series.

The Nationals have started to look like the playoff contenders most them pegged as coming into the season. They’re nine games above .500 after winning six of their last eight contests. Despite possessing MLB’s worst bullpen in terms of ERA, they still boast a +50 run differential with a top-tier lineup and starting rotation. The Nationals have been strong at home, where they hold a 33-25 record. Including the opening two contests of this series, Washington has won three straight games.

Cincinnati will send deadline acquisition Trevor Bauer to the mound to face Washington’s Stephen Strasburg. Bauer has had a relatively disappointing season. After finally putting it all together in 2018, he has slipped a bit due to inconsistency. He has still, however, struck out a spectacular 191 batters in 160.2 innings. There is not enough splits to analyze, as he has made just two starts for the Reds.

Strasburg, despite some hiccups, has been terrific once again this season. He holds an average (for him) 3.72 ERA with a cool 1.07 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 152.1 innings. The righty has allowed two runs or fewer in 13 of his 24 starts and three runs or fewer in 16 of those contests. Strasburg has pitched better at home this season, where he has posted a 3.47 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He has won seven of his 11 home starts vs. seven of 13 on the road. Washington has won 10 of his last 14 starts and thus hold the edge in the team and pitcher form department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Reds have won four straight games following losses in the first two games of a series. They have won nine of their last 12 matchups against a right-handed starting pitcher. However, they have lost five of their last seven road games against teams with a winning record. They sit at the same mark in their last seven road contests against teams over .500 at home. They have lost 18 of its last 25 games on Wednesday. Finally, they have dropped eight of their last 11 against the NL East.

Washington, meanwhile, has won its last four games against the NL Central. The Nats have won nine of their last 11 Wednesday games and 24 of their last 31 games against teams with a losing record. They have won nine of their last 12 Game 3s of a series and 37 of their last 51 home games against teams under .500. Washington has won 17 of its latest 25 home games. Finally, the Nationals have claimed nine of their last 13 home contests against a right-handed starting pitcher.

Washington is also rolling in Strasburg’s recent starts. The club has won 43 of his last 56 starts against teams with a losing record. The Nationals have triumphed in 16 of his last 21 turns against the NL Central. They have also won 24 of his last 32 Wednesday starts and 41 of his last 60 home starts. Finally, they have won 43 of his last 62 Game 3s of a series. Bauer has not pitched for the Reds long enough to qualify for any trends.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Line
The line for this contest opened at -149 in favor of Washington and currently sits at -150 at PointsBet. Vegas is seemingly giving Bauer a lot of love based on the opening line. The Nationals have won Strasburg’s last four starts against Cincinnati. If that were not enough for this line to deserve much different odds, the Reds have lost four straight games to Washington. They have lost 21 of their last 27 contests against Washington overall.

The Nationals hold a distinct advantage over the Reds in the form and trends department, so much so that there is fear of Vegas knowing something bettors don’t relating to this contest. While not in trap line territory, Bauer could be worth the difference between the expected odds and posted odds, so don’t go over one unit for this play. Vegas is likely trying to draw some extra action on the Reds. Roll with the better team with the better pitcher at home.

Pick: Washington Nationals (-150)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 35-27-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.