Top MLB Bet for August 19th
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Today’s play of the day is a battle between one of the best teams and one of the worst teams that the National League has to offer. One team is steamrolling its way to the playoffs. The other has fallen apart, and have all but eliminated themselves from contention. The road team is the betting favorite, but they lost their first and only series against the home team earlier this season in their own park. The home team is sending the more experienced starter to the mound: A pitcher that had relative success against the road team in his lone start against them this season. Let’s see if our analysis provides an edge-based lean.
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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Washington Nationals | 67-56 | 7 | 5.23 | +68 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 51-72 | 26 | 4.65 | -99 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Joe Ross | 3-3 | 5.91 | 1.64 |
| Trevor Williams | 5-5 | 5.25 | 1.39 |
Form
The Washington Nationals are set to do battle with the Pittsburgh Pirates in an evening affair. Washington has turned on the jets, and at 67-56, they find themselves in the driver’s seat for one of the NL Wild Card spots. They have scored an elite 5.23 runs per game and hold a healthy +68 run differential despite boasting the league’s worst bullpen in terms of ERA. The Nationals have a solid 31-30 road record, and they have won six of their last seven contests.
Pittsburgh has had an up and down season, but they have completely fallen apart since the All-Star break. They have managed to scrape together only seven wins in 34 contests. The Pirates have scored a solid 4.65 runs per game on the season, but the team has been terrible on the mound. Their pitching staff has relinquished 4.93 runs per game. That number balloons to 5.24 runs per contest when they play at home. The Pirates sit 21 games under .500 at 51-71 on the season and have a 25-34 record at home. Their 25 wins at home represent the worst mark in the National League. Washington holds the team form edge.
The Nationals will be sending the intriguing Joe Ross to the mound. Pittsburgh will be countering with the inconsistent Trevor Williams. Joe Ross is 3-3 on the season, and he has made just four starts this year. He has allowed just one run in his last three starts, a period over which he holds an elite 0.50 ERA. Ross has a 3.21 ERA and 1.39 WHIP since the all-star break, and Washington has won in his last three starts.
Trevor Williams has had a tumultuous season. He has a 5-5 record which he has paired with a poor 5.25 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Williams has actually been worse at home this season. He has a disastrous 6.11 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at PNC Park. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 of his 18 starts. The Pirates have won two of his last three starts. But Williams was solid against Washington earlier this season, as he allowed just two runs in 6.1 innings of work. That said, the Nationals still hold the pitching form edge.
Edge: Washington Nationals
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Nationals have won seven of their last eight games against the NL Central. They have won their last four Monday games, they have won 16 of their last 21 series openers, and they have won 10 of their last 15 road games against teams with losing home records. Finally, they have won 16 of their last 23 road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
The Pirates trends read as expected. They have lost 20 of their last 28 series openers. They have lost 38 of their last 53 games against teams with winning records, they have lost 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with winning road records, and they have lost four of their last five Monday games. The Pirates have lost 13 of their last 16 home games, and they lost six of their last seven games against the NL East. Finally, they have lost 10 of their last 11 home games against teams with winning records. Washington holds the team trend edge.
The Nationals have been effective in Joe Ross’ recent starts. They have won six of his last eight series openers. They have won 20 of his last 27 starts against teams with losing records. Finally, they have won five of his last six starts on five days of rest.
The Pirates have won seven of Trevor Williams’ last 10 home starts. They have lost six of his last eight home starts against teams with winning records. Finally, they have lost five of his last six starts against teams with winning records.
Edge: Washington Nationals
Line
The line for this contest has already started to move. Pittsburgh opened at +118, and they currently sit at +110, or at +111 at PointsBet. Interestingly, the overnight action has been on the Pirates as opposed to the Nationals. Joe Ross is not much a known quantity as a starter, but he has been lights out in his last three outings. The Nationals hold the form and trend-based edges in this contest and look to be the smart lean.
However, they have managed to drop four of their last five in Pittsburgh. They have also lost two of three to the Pirates this season. With that said, the Nationals have hit their stride and are playing like one of the best teams in baseball. These are not the same two teams that met earlier this season. Washington appears to be a value and the prudent lean for our play of the day.
Pick: Washington Nationals (-131)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 36-28-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.