Top MLB Bet for August 21st

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Today’s play of the day is between two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum in the National League. One team has all but punched its ticket to the postseason. The other may not even think about playing in October for at least the next three years. However, the underdog is the home team. The home team leads the season series against the visitors as they have found a way to exploit their weaknesses. But the visiting team still seems like the lean and like a potential value at their current listed odds. Let’s see if our analysis concurs. 

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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	68-57	7	5.29	+78
Pittsburgh Pirates	52-73	26	4.61	-109

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Patrick Corbin	9-5	3.34	1.18
Joe Musgrove	8-11	4.59	1.22

Form
The Washington Nationals are set to do battle with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates in the third game of a four-game series. The Nationals are continuing their assault on the NL East, but they remain six games back with a 68-57 record. They have scored an elite 5.26 runs per game and have a rock-solid +78 run differential. Their positive run differential is all the more impressive when one takes into account that their bullpen has the second-highest ERA in all of baseball. The Nationals are 32-31 on the road, but they have struggled against the Pirates this season. Washington has lost three of their five games against the Pirates thus far on the season. That said, the Nationals have won seven of their last nine contests.

Pittsburgh has been worse than expected this season and the team sits 21 games under .500 at 52-73. The Pirates have allowed the sixth-most runs per game at 4.94 and have the second-worst run differential in the entire National League. To put this in context, the only National League team that allows more runs per game plays over at Coors Field. The Pirates have a 26-35 record at home. Pittsburgh has lost 28 of their last 36 contests, so Washington holds a significant edge in the team form department.

The Nationals will be sending the talented and electric Patrick Corbin to the mound. Pittsburgh will be countering with the intriguing but disappointing Joe Musgrove. Corbin has been solid on the season and holds a 9-5 record. He has a 3.34 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. Night and day at home and on the road, Corbin has been a 5.14 ERA and 1.43 WHIP pitcher away from Nationals Park. He has allowed three runs or less in 21 of his 25 starts. Washington has won eight of his last 11 starts.

Joe Musgrove has had another disappointing season, and he currently sports an 8-11 record with a 4.59 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or less in 17 of his 25 starts this season. Musgrove has actually been worse at home this season. He has a 5.10 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at PNC Park. The Pirates have lost four of his last seven starts. As a result, Washington holds the edge in the pitcher form department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Washington has won their last four game-threes of a series. They have won four of their last five road games against teams with a losing home record, they have won eight of their last 10 games against the NL Central, and they have won 10 of their last 12 Wednesday games. The Nationals have won 26 of their last 34 games against teams with losing records. Finally, they have won 13 of their last 19 road games against teams with losing records.

Pittsburgh has lost 39 of their last 55 games against teams with winning records. They have lost 16 of their last 22 home games, they have lost seven of their last eight against the NL East, and they have lost 11 straight game-threes of a series. They have lost their last five Wednesday games. Finally, they have lost 11 of their last 13 home games against teams with winning records. Washington holds the edge in the team trend arena.

Washington has been on a roll in Patrick Corbin’s recent starts. They have won his last four Wednesday games. They have won four of his last five game threes of a series. Washington has won four of his last five starts against teams with a losing record. They have also won four of his last five starts on four days of rest. Finally, they have won eight of his last 11 starts overall. On the other side of the coin, the Nationals have lost seven of his last nine road starts. Even more interesting is that they have lost four of his last five road starts against teams with losing records.

Joe Musgrove has some intriguing trends. The Pirates have won six of his last eight home starts. They have won six of his last seven home starts against teams with winning records. However, they have lost five of his last seven against the NL East. Washington holds the edge in the pitcher trend department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Line
The line for this contest has already started to see some movement. The Pirates opened at +130, and they currently sit at +132, or at +130 on PointsBet. Odds of -160 on the Nationals with one of their better pitchers against one of the worst teams in the league seem almost too good to be true. The Nationals have dropped three of their five contests against the Pirates this season, so this line makes some sense if you dig a little deeper. As mentioned above, Joe Musgrove has also had some recent success against winning teams.

However, Corbin is the better pitcher and he smoked the Pirates in his lone start against them this season. He struck out 11 batters in seven innings of work and allowed just one run. The Pirates were able to take advantage of one of the Nationals’ bullpen’s patented meltdowns last night, but Washington is the far superior team in this series. The Nationals hold the edge in both form and trends, which makes them the smart lean for tonight’s contest. Roll with Washington as a one-unit play.

Pick: Washington Nationals (-160)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 37-28-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.