Top MLB Bet for August 26th
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Today’s play of the day is a battle between two of the NL Central’s best. Both veteran starting pitchers are strong options. Both teams in this contest have struggled on the road this season, which presents an early edge for the home club. However, the visitor’s starter has been on a roll against the hosts. As you will see throughout my analysis, this is a tough contest to get a read on despite the current odds. Plus money on the better team looks like the potential lean, but let’s see if further inspection bears this out.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 71-58 | 14 | 4.59 | +53 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 67-63 | 9 | 4.78 | -29 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Adam Wainwright | 9-9 | 4.51 | 1.44 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 2-1 | 3.64 | 1.26 |
Form
St. Louis is on a roll, winning 13 of its last 16 contests. A stout pitching staff gives the club a strong run differential despite ranking 22nd in runs scored. The Cardinals are a poor 31-34 away from Busch Stadium. Including two of three in their most recent head-to-head series, they have won six of their last seven games against Milwaukee.
One of only two teams with a winning record despite a negative run differential, Milwaukee sits at 67-63 on the season. Despite a rock-solid offense, it has been inconsistent this season due to a lack of strong pitching. Playoff ready at home, the Brewers are 38-27 at Miller Park. Milwaukee has won three of its last four contests and holds a slight edge due to playing at home.
Adam Wainwright is in the midst of yet another disappointing season. The former ace has settled down into an unspectacular back-end option, allowing three runs or fewer in 17 of his 24 starts. Much better at home this season, he has a disastrous 6.64 ERA and 1.57 WHIP on the road. Wainwright has a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in two starts against the Brewers this season, most recently allowing five runs in last Wednesday’s loss. The Cardinals have nevertheless won seven of his last nine starts.
Gio Gonzalez has a solid 3.64 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 59.1 innings. While some long-ball issues have elevated his ERA to 4.26 at home, he has paired that higher mark with a 1.07 WHIP and .180 batting average against. He has allowed no more than three runs in 10 of his 12 starts, eight of which the Brewers won. Milwaukee also holds the edge in the pitching form department.
Edge: Milwaukee Brewers
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. St. Louis has won eight of its last nine Monday games and 13 of its last 16 overall. The Cardinals have won four of their last five series-openers. They have won 17 of their last 22 games against the NL Central. However, they have struggled in their recent matchups against strong competition, losing seven of their last nine road games against teams with a winning record. They have lost six of their last eight games against teams above .500.
The Cardinals have succeeded in the majority of Wainwright’s recent starts. They have won his last four Monday starts and four of his last five road outings. St. Louis has prevailed in 44 of his last 65 starts against the NL Central. The division leaders have won 47 of his last 66 starts on four days of rest. On the other side of the coin, they have lost seven of his last 10 starts against teams with winning records. Finally, the Cardinals have lost their last seven road starts against teams with winning records.
Milwaukee has won its last six home games against right-handed starting pitchers. The playoff contender has won seven of its last nine home games against teams with winning records. The Brew Crew have won five of their last seven home games against teams with losing road records. Finally, they have won 15 of their last 23 Monday games. Milwaukee holds a slight edge in the team trends department.
The Brewers have cruised in Gonzalez’s recent starts. They have won his last four home starts against teams with winning records and nine of his last 10 home starts. The Brewers have won five of his last six series-openers. They have won seven of his last nine starts against teams with winning records. Finally, they have won seven of his last nine starts on five days of rest. Milwaukee holds the edge in the pitcher trend department.
Edge: Milwaukee Brewers
Line
The line for this contest opened at -133 and currently sits at -128, and -131 at PointsBet. In a matchup that could truly go either way, the line appears to offer potential value on both sides. Milwaukee looks like the lean based on trends. Despite an inferior record, it’s playing at home and sending the better pitcher to the mound.
However, the Cardinals have been excellent against the Brewers in Wainwright’s recent starts. Despite struggling in his last outing, the Cardinals have won his last six road starts against Milwaukee. St. Louis has won 12 of his last 17 starts against the Brewers. The superior team this season, the Cardinals have won six of their last seven against Milwaukee.
Which side one chooses for this contest comes down to starting pitching and the matchup’s location. The Cardinals would have been the easy play at home, but the road contest presents more of a risk. Roll with the Brewers as a one-unit play.
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-131)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 39-28-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.