Top MLB Bet for August 28th

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Today’s play of the day is a battle between some of baseball’s best and some of its absolute worst. The visiting team is marching toward a wildcard berth. The home team is not only the worst team in baseball record-wise, but they have the lowest amount of home wins in the league by a comfortable margin. The odds on this contest are not what one would expect and as such, this matchup deserves deeper analysis. The line here presents a tremendous potential value, so let’s dig deeper to uncover whether this is a trap line or line to exploit. 

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Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Cleveland Indians	77-55	4	4.74	+101
Detroit Tigers	39-90	30	3.63	-255

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Aaron Civale	1-3	1.82	0.91
Jordan Zimmerman	1-9	6.48	1.46

Form
The Cleveland Indians are set to do battle with arguably the worst team in baseball in the Detroit Tigers. Cleveland is holding steady in the wild card mix with a 77-55 record. They had some struggles during a tough nine-game stretch, but they have since found their stride and have won three of their last four games. They are now scoring a solid 4.74 runs per game and have a rock-solid +101 run differential. They are 36-28 on the road, and the Indians score more runs when playing outside of Cleveland. Cleveland has won 13 of 14 meetings with divisional foe Detroit this season.

Detroit has been an absolute disaster this season. They sit 51 games under .500 with a 39-90 record. They are the only team with under 20 wins at home where they sit at 17-44 on the season. Losers of eight of their last 10 outings, as mentioned above, the Tigers are in a rough spot against a team they have only one win against in 14 tries. Detroit has scored a league-worst 3.63 runs per game on the season. The Indians hold the edge in the team form arena.

Cleveland is sending highly impressive rookie Aaron Civale to the mound. Detroit will be countering with the replacement-level Jordan Zimmerman. Aaron Civale has been much better than his 1-3 record may indicate. He has an elite level 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through five starts this season. These numbers are all the more impressive when one considers his last four starts came against the Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and New York Mets. He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his starts. The first game of his big league career came against the Tigers. He spun six innings of shutout ball while striking out six. Inexplicably, Cleveland has lost three of his five starts.

Fade master Jordan Zimmerman has just one win in his 17 starts. He has a 1-9 record with a horrendous 6.48 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and he has allowed four or more runs in nine of his 17 starts. Zimmerman has been an abject disaster at home where he holds a ridiculous 8.14 ERA and 1.97 WHIP. He was lit up for three long balls and four runs in just 4.1 innings of work in his lone start against the Indians this season. Detroit has lost 13 of his last 15 starts. Cleveland holds the edge in the pitching form department.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Trends
The trends for this contest read as one may expect. Cleveland has won seven of their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage below .400. They have won 38 of their last 52 Wednesday games. The Indians have won 72 of their last 101 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. They have won 116 of their last 172 games against the NL Central. However, they have dropped five of their last seven road games.

Detroit has lost 36 of their last 52 games against the AL Central. They have lost 38 of their last 52 games against teams with winning road records. They have lost 41 of their last 61 Wednesday games. Detroit has lost 45 of their previous 59 game twos. They have lost 40 of their last 53 home games. Finally, they have lost 46 of their last 58 games against teams with winning records. Cleveland holds the edge in the team trends department.

Rookie hurler Aaron Civale has not played enough games to qualify for any pitching trends. The Tigers have been as poor as expected in Jordan Zimmerman’s recent starts. They have lost 19 of his last 26 home starts against teams with winning records. They have lost 23 of his last 31 starts overall. The Tigers have lost 22 of his last 28 starts during game two of a series. They have lost 22 of his last 28 home starts. Finally, they have lost four of his last five Wednesday starts. Cleveland holds the edge in the pitching trends department.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Line
The line for this contest has already started to move. This time it has moved in a favorable direction. The line opened at +169 for the Tigers, and it now sits at +167, and +160 at PointsBet. The Indians at -190 in a very easy matchup in the days of -400 lines still presents as a value. Perhaps the early bettors and sharps sensed this and thus have reason to believe this game may go the other way. It could also be that Aaron Civale, five starts into his big league career, is still considered too much of a wild card. However, a look at his game log suggests he is more of a potential front of the rotation starter than a wild card. As mentioned above, he has been elite in his five starts and already has a win against these same Tigers.

Jordan Zimmerman, on the other hand, is an easy fade target. This is even more true against the Indians. Detroit has lost Jordan Zimmerman’s last seven starts against Cleveland. They have lost his last five home starts against Cleveland. The far superior team, Cleveland has won 25 of their last 35 games in Detroit. With both form and trends also on their side, it is clear that the odds in this contest should be even higher. Fresh off a 10-1 thrashing of Detroit, the play looks to be to eat the juice and lay for a full unit return on Civale and the Indians.

Pick: Cleveland Indians (-190)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 39-29-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.