Top MLB Bet for August 2nd
Today’s play of the day is an interesting battle between two teams who have been able to turn their respective seasons around. One has shaken off the disappointing label and is now in the driver’s seat in the AL wild-card race. In fact, they may very well win their division altogether. The other team is 6.5 games back in the wild-card race but has overcome a season that looked to be in the tubes. The opening odds appear to have offered some solid value on the favorite. Let’s see if our analysis agrees.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Los Angeles Angels | 56-54 | 17 | 5.09 | +1 |
| Cleveland Indians | 63-45 | 7 | 4.63 | +61 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Dillon Peters | 2-0 | 3.06 | 1.58 |
| Mike Clevinger | 5-2 | 3.28 | 1.05 |
Form
The Los Angeles Angels are set to do battle with the Cleveland Indians in an evening affair. Los Angeles has had an up-and-down season but currently find themselves above water with a 56-54 record. They have scored a top-tier 5.09 runs per game but have a pitiful +1 run differential. The Angels are a solid 27-26 on the road this season. Despite winning four of six of their recent games against the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, the Angels have managed to drop five of their last seven against Baltimore and Detroit.
Cleveland has turned on the jets and now look to be a potential World Series contender after an exciting trade deadline. They are 21 games above .500 at 63-45 and sport a rock-solid +61 run differential. Their 4.66 runs scored per game is decidedly average, but Cleveland made sure to address that by adding Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig at the deadline. Cleveland has been terrific at home where they hold a 33-23 record. Their 33 wins at home rank fourth in the American League. The Indians have won 13 of their last 18 games.
The Los Angeles Angels will be sending Dillon Peters to the mound. Cleveland will be countering the hot Mike Clevinger. Peters has made six appearances but just two starts this season. He has a solid 2-0 record with a great 3.06 ERA. However, his 1.58 WHIP suggests a disastrous outing may be in his near future. His 2.00 ERA as a starter looks great, but his 1.67 WHIP and .306 batting average against suggest he has been very lucky in his starts against two of the weaker teams in the league in Seattle and Baltimore.
Mike Clevinger has been strong this season. He has a 5-2 record with a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Clevinger caught fire in July where he reeled off four wins in five starts and posted an excellent 1.74 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has been truly sensational at home where he holds an elite 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 40 strikeouts in just 23 innings. Clevinger has allowed one run or less in six of his nine starts. Cleveland has won four of his last five starts. Cleveland holds the overall edge in form.
Edge: Cleveland Indians
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Angels have won their last four road games. They have won their last five games following an off day. Los Angeles has won 10 of their last 14 series openers. Unfortunately, that is where the good trends end. The Angels have lost 42 of their last 62 road games against teams with winning home records. They have lost six of their last seven games against the AL Central. They have lost eight of their last 10 Friday games. Finally, they have lost four of their last five games against starting pitchers with a WHIP lower than 1.15.
Cleveland has won 13 of their last 16 games following a loss. They have won four of their last five series openers. They have won eight of their last 11 home games. The Indians have won five of their last seven Friday games. As mentioned above, Cleveland has been on a roll recently and have won 35 of their last 51 games. There are however some concerning trends. The Indians have won five of their last seven home games against teams with winning records. They have lost 10 of their last 14 games against the AL West. Finally, they have lost five of their last seven home games against teams with winning road records. Cleveland holds the edge in the team trends arena.
Dillon Peters has not started enough games to qualify for any trends. To say the very least, Mike Clevinger’s trends are interesting. The Indians have won his last six starts on five days of rest. They have won nine of his last 11 home starts. Cleveland has won four of his last five starts overall. On the other side of things, they have lost 11 of his last 14 series openers. They have lost 10 of his last 12 starts against teams with winning records. Cleveland has lost six of his last seven Friday games. Finally, they have lost his last four starts against the AL West. Cleveland holds the edge in the trends arena.
Edge: Cleveland Indians
Line
The line for this contest currently sits at -162 at PointsBet after being off the book last night. This line looks like a solid value for an Indians team that is expecting both Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig to make their debuts. Puig is appealing his suspension and is in line to start tonight’s contest. The Indians are sending the superior pitcher to the mound and also have home-field advantage. Cleveland has won four of Mike Clevinger’s last five starts against the Angels. The Indians have won 19 of their last 26 games against the Angels. If that were not enough, they have won 20 of their last 26 games against them overall. This line could make some major movement before game time so be sure to lock this one in as soon as possible.
Pick: Cleveland Indians (-162)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 31-26-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.