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Top MLB Bet for August 30th, 2019 

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Today’s play of the day is an intriguing battle between two NL West foes. A cursory look at the two teams involved provides one solid lean. However, deeper analysis suggests that the home team may be the superior value. The early bettors and sharps agree and have already dropped the odds on the home underdogs. This battle is likely to come down to the pitching. Two rookie hurlers will go at it, and whoever has the better performance is likely to help propel his team to a victory. Let’s dig a little deeper to uncover which team appears to be the edge-based lean.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Team Record Power Ranking Runs Scored Differential
Los Angeles Dodgers 88-48 3 5.46 +218
Arizona Diamondbacks 68-66 18 5.16 +67

 

Pitcher Record ERA WHIP
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) 2-1 2.57 1.17
Zac Gallen (ARI) 2-4 2.56 1.35

 

Form

Los Angeles has been one of, if not the best team in baseball all season. The Dodgers are tied with the New York Yankees for the most wins in the majors. They have a tremendous 88-48 record on the season. The Dodgers have been far less dominant on the road this season where they hold a solid, but relatively unimpressive 36-30 record. They have won 10-of-16 contests against the Diamondbacks this season. Los Angeles has won 19 of their last 28 contests.

Arizona has had a solid season and sits at 68-66 on the campaign. They have scored a solid 5.16 runs per game on the season, but that number drops to 4.92 per contest at Chase Field. Better on the road, the Diamondbacks have a losing home record at 31-32. Including the opening game of this series, Arizona has won four straight games. Los Angeles holds the edge in the team form department.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are sending exciting rookie Tony Gonsolin to the mound. Arizona will be responding with a promising rookie of their own in Zac Gallen. Gonsolin has made just four big-league starts. He has allowed one run or less in three of them. He has shown flashes of a rookie with a long career ahead of him and holds a 2.74 ERA and 0.91 WHIP on the season. However, he was lit up for four runs in just four innings of work when he faced the Diamondbacks in June. It was his first start of the season, but he will be pitching at Chase Field once again. Sensational at home, Gonsolin has been much more pedestrian on the road. He holds a 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through two starts in three appearances. The Dodgers have lost both of his road starts.

Rookie Zac Gallen has been impressive and holds a 2.65 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He has had some control issues since being traded to the Diamondbacks. He has limited opponents to two runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts. Gallen has a sparkling 0.86 ERA with a much less impressive 1.36 in his two starts at Chase Field. Arizona won three of his last four starts. Arizona holds a slight edge in the pitching form arena.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Trends

There are some intriguing trends for this contest:

Los Angeles

  • They have won six of their last eight road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
  • They have won 57 of their last 82 games against the NL West.
  • They have won 38 of their last 56 game twos of a series.
  • They have won 36 of their last 53 games against teams with winning records.
  • They have won 19 of their last 28 games.
  • They have managed to lose four of their last five road contests against teams with winning records.

Arizona

  • They have won their last four games.
  • They have won six of their last seven against the NL West.
  • They have won four of their last five home games.
  • They have won five of their last six games following a win.
  • They have lost four of their last five Friday games.
  • They have lost four of their last five home games against right-handed starting pitchers.

Rookies Tony Gonsolin and Zac Gallen do not qualify for any trends. Gonsolin has made only four big-league starts. While he has made 11 starts as a rookie, Gallen has made only four starts for Arizona.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Line

The line for this contest has already started to move. The line opened at +125 for the Diamondbacks and has already dropped to +115, and +115 at PointsBet. As our analysis suggests, Arizona has more than a puncher’s chance in this contest. Gallen limited the Dodgers to just one run when he faced them in July. Further cementing the Diamondbacks as a potential value is the most glaring trend, the Dodgers have lost four of their last five games in Arizona.

The Dodgers are the superior team in this contest but have taken a major hit on the odds due to playing on the road with a rookie pitcher. They are far more vulnerable on the road where they have less overall wins than Arizona. However, they have won 10 of their 16 meetings with the Diamondbacks this season. As alluded to above, this contest is likely to come down to the starting pitching. With that in mind, Arizona at home seems like the better bet. Gonsolin was shelled for four runs in four innings against the Diamondbacks in Arizona earlier this season. Follow the early money, the Diamondbacks are the play.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks (+115)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 40-29-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.