Top MLB Bet for August 5th

Today’s play of the day seems like an easy decision on paper. However, a look at this contest’s line should sound the warning chimes. The road team is favored, but the odds do not reflect the talent gap between these two NL Central squads. The superior pitcher based on recent form is a rookie whom some may not even know. The following analysis will help determine which team holds the actual edge. Let’s jump in.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Milwaukee Brewers	57-56	9	4.74	-29
Pittsburgh Pirates	48-63	24	4.68	-84

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Jordan Lyles	6-7	5.15	1.44
Dario Agrazal	2-2	3.65	1.19

Form
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to battle the Pittsburgh Pirates in an evening affair. The Brewers sit just one game over .500 following a four-game losing streak. They find themselves riddled with a negative differential despite a solid offense. Ranked 19th in team ERA, the Brew Crew made multiple additions to their pitching staff at the deadline. One of them, former Pirate Jordan Lyles, is set to start against his former team tonight. The Brewers have been poor on the road, where they hold a 24-32 record. Milwaukee has lost 12 of its 22 games since the All-Star break.

Pittsburgh has fallen in line with preseason expectations. The Pirates are 15 games under .500 after Sunday’s 13-2 beat down by the Mets, but they have flashed at times. Only the Marlins, however, have a worse run differential in the NL. Pittsburgh has allowed the fifth-most runs per game on the season and has an identical 24 wins both home and away. It has lost 18 of 22 contests since the All-Star break.

The Pirates will send rookie Dario Agrazal to the mound against Lyles, who started the season strong before falling apart in June and July. Lyles won his first start with the Brewers, giving up three hits and just one run in five innings Wednesday at Oakland. Prior to the trade, Lyles had allowed five or more runs in three of four starts. He has actually pitched better on the road this season, but not by much. The 28-year-old righty has a 4.75 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and four of his six wins away from PNC Park. Despite his unsightly overall numbers, he has allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of his 18 starts.

Agrazal has had a solid start to his career. He is not an overpowering pitcher, and his 4.38 K/9 rate leaves much to be desired. The 24-year-old has made just seven starts this season, allowing two runs or fewer in five of them. He holds a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two home turns, the first of which came on July 6 against the Brewers. He managed to beat them despite serving up two solo home runs, the only runs he gave up over six innings. Yet the Pirates have lost four of his seven starts. The Pirates still hold the edge in the pitcher form arena, but Milwaukee wields the overall advantage in the form department.

Edge: Milwaukee Brewers

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Milwaukee has been a disaster lately, losing 13 of its last 18 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have lost 11 of their last 15 series-openers and have somehow managed to lose nine of their last 12 games against teams with losing records. Milwaukee has dropped five of its last six road games against teams with losing records. Finally, the Brewers have lost their last four games against the NL Central. On the positive trends side, they have won 15 of their last 21 games played on Monday.

Pittsburgh has lost 16 of their last 23 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have fallen short in 20 of their last 28 against the NL Central. The Pirates have lost 19 of their last 26 series-openers and seven of their last eight home games against teams with losing road records. The last-place club has dropped five of its last six Monday games. Pittsburgh has lost its last five home games against teams with winning records. Finally, the Pirates have lost their last six home games against right-handed starting pitchers,

Unfortunately, with Lyles switching teams and Agrazal a rookie with just seven starts under his belt, there are no team-based pitching trends available. As detailed above in my pitcher breakdowns, despite a lack of wins to show for it, Agrazal has been in superior recent form.

Edge: Even

Line
This contest is as tight as the line suggests. We have seen some early movement with the Pirates jumping from +107 to +117, and +121 at PointsBet. The Brewers are the superior team in this matchup and have won nine of their 13 meetings with the Pirates this season. However, Agrazal won his lone start against the Brewers this season. Although solid in his debut with the Brewers, Lyles was a walking disaster before the trade.

This contest is going to come down to Lyles. Agrazal is expected to pitch relatively well, but the Brewers should pick up an easy win if Lyles can manage to do the same. While betting on him to do so is a risky proposition, looking for a team-based lean becomes more of a priority when the starting pitchers do not provide a definitive advantage. The Brewers have a greater chance to win than the line suggests, thus making them a solid value.

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-136)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 32-26-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.