Top MLB Bet for August 7th

With today’s top play firmly in the parlay-only range, I will instead look for a top value play. My play of the day is a battle between two of baseball’s heavyweights. Both teams lead their respective divisions and appear set for a postseason berth. It is an interleague matchup where each squad will send an underwhelming pitching option to the mound. With the odds close to even, there looks to be inherent value on both sides. Let’s see if my analysis can ascertain which of these two teams holds the edge.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Minnesota Twins

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Atlanta Braves	67-48	8	5.35	+61
Minnesota Twins	70-43	5	5.79	+138

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Max Fried	12-4	4.07	1.37
Martin Perez	8-4	4.58	1.40

 

Form
The Braves have been on fire this season. They are 19 games above .500 and hold a hearty six-game lead in the NL East. Well on their way to the postseason, they have dominated on the road to the tune of 35-23. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs in the NL, leading to a healthy run differential despite some pitching woes. The Braves are 5-5 in interleague matchups this season and have split the first two games of this series. They have a solid 36-32 record against teams with a record of .500 or above and have won 13 of their 24 games since the All-Star break.

Minnesota has been one of the most impressive teams in the league. The fastest team ever to 200 home runs, the Twins are already in the top 25 all-time with 49 games to go. They need just 45 home runs to set the single-season record. To say they are on a historic pace would be an understatement. Based on their 1.97 home-run-per-game pace, they are set to decimate the Yankees’ 2018 record by more than 50. Minnesota has been on fire at home, where it holds a 35-22 record. However, the Twins have disappointed against teams .500 or above, against whom they are 26-27. Making matters worse, they have dropped eight of their 14 interleague matchups this season. Although the majority of them came against suspect competition, the Twins have won nine of their last 12 contests.

Atlanta will send the inconsistent but sometimes impressive Max Fried to the mound. Minnesota will counter with the also-ran Martin Perez. Fried’s 12 wins places second in the NL behind Stephen Strasburg. However, he is the only pitcher with more than 10 wins to have a batting average against above .270.

Blessed with solid run support, Fried appears to have made a smooth transition to starting. He has pitched better at home this season, carrying a 4.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP away from SunTrust Park. Locked in since the All-Star break, he’s 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his last three starts. Fried has allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of his 21 starts. Atlanta has won 11 of his last 13 starts.

Perez, much like Fried, has benefited from pitching for one of baseball’s best teams. He’s 8-4 despite an unsightly 4.58 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Perez has been slightly better at home, where he has tallied a 4.35 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. The lefty has allowed three runs or fewer in 11 of his 19 starts. However, he has permitted four or more runs in six of his last 10 outings. Minnesota has won four of his last seven starts. Atlanta holds the edge in the pitching form arena.

Edge: Atlanta Braves

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Atlanta has won five of its last seven road games against left-handed starting pitchers. It has also won five of its last seven games on Wednesday. One of MLB’s top road teams, the Braves have won 27 of their last 40 away games. Finally, they have triumphed in 52 of their last 77 Game 3s of a series. On the flip side, the Braves have lost 31 of their last 45 interleague games against teams with a winning record. They have also lost 18 of their last 26 interleague road games against teams with winning records.

Interestingly, Minnesota has won four straight home games against teams with a road winning percentage above .600. The AL Central leaders have won four of their last five home games. They have emerged victorious in 40 of their last 53 home contests against a starting pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.30. The Twins have won five of their last seven interleague home games against teams with winning records. However, they have lost 31 of their last 46 games against the NL East. They have also lost nine of their last 10 Game 3s of a series. Finally, they have lost their last seven games against a left-handed starting pitcher.

The Braves are on a roll in Fried’s recent starts. They have won his last six outings and four road starts against teams with winning records. Atlanta has prevailed in six of his last seven Game 3 starts. Finally, it has claimed seven of his last eight road starts.

Minnesota has won seven of Perez’s last eight starts following games in which the Twins gave up five or more runs. They have won six of his last eight starts on four days of rest.

Edge: Atlanta Braves

Line
The line for this contest has already started to shift. Minnesota opened at -114 and now sits at -105, and -110 at PointsBet. The oddsmakers appear to have set the opening line to attract money on the Twins, but the early bettors have not been fooled. This looks like a Twins play on the surface, but deeper analysis reveals a trend and form-based edge for the Braves. The Braves have won five of their last six games in Minnesota. They have won eight of their last 11 games against the Twins overall. They are also sending a starting pitcher in better form to the mound. Atlanta is the pick.

Pick: Atlanta Braves (-110)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 33-26-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.