Top MLB Bet for July 12th

With the All-Star break over, Friday presents the first full day of MLB action since last weekend. Today’s play of the day features a duel between two offseason favorites to win the NL East. These two teams have both seen their season outlooks take drastic shifts this season. The visiting team had uncharacteristic struggles for much of the year while the home team surprised some with their early-season form. Both of their fortunes have since reversed.

The opening line for this contest was exceedingly appealing, but it has now settled in as just a solid value. The hosts have dominated at home this season. However, the away squad is sending the better starting pitcher to the hill. Let’s see what the rest of my analysis reveals about the top MLB bet for July 12.

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Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	47-42	11	4.94	+29
Philadelphia Phillies	47-43	15	4.91	+2

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Stephen Strasburg	10-4	3.64	1.04
Nick Pivetta	4-3	5.84	1.48

 

Form
The Washington Nationals are set to battle their divisional foes in the Philadelphia Phillies. Washington continues to turn its season around and sits five games over .500 coming out of the All-Star break. Despite looking like one of the worst teams in baseball at times this season, the Nationals have forced their way into second place in the NL East. They still have the worst bullpen ERA at 6.08, but their rotation’s 3.55 ERA ranks third. One of just six National League teams with more than 20 away wins this season, the Nationals are 21-22 outside of Washington. They have won 10 of their last 12 contests.

Philadelphia has had an interesting season. Despite leading the NL East for much of the first half, the Phillies now find themselves in third place with a solid 47-43 record. They are 14th in scoring and 17th in runs allowed, narrowly leaving a positive run differential. Philadelphia has played much better at home, where it’s 27-17. Only three NL teams (Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs) won more games at home before the All-Star break. The Phillies, however, have also lost 12 of their last 22 contests. As shocking as it is to say given the early returns, Washington is in better form.

The Nationals will send the electric Stephen Strasburg to the mound. Philadelphia will counter with the talented, but incredibly inconsistent Nick Pivetta. Strasburg has been lights out this season. Despite his team’s tumultuous start to the campaign, Strasburg is on his way to a career high in wins. He has a solid 3.64 ERA and an exciting 1.04 WHIP, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 of his 18 starts.

He has actually pitched better on the road this season, holding a sparkling 3.19 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through nine starts away from Nationals Park. Yet he was decimated at Citizens Bank Park. In his lone start against the Phillies this season, he gave up six runs in just four innings. The Nationals have won six of his last seven starts.

Pivetta has been a roller coaster this season. Due to his frustrating inconsistency, he was sent down to the minors in April. Following two impressive outings after being called back up, he has relinquished 20 runs in four outings. He has an unsightly 5.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the majors and has allowed three runs or fewer in just five of his 11 starts. Despite his misleading 4-1 record at home, Pivetta has a 5.92 ERA and 1.63 WHIP through seven starts. In two turns against Washington this season, the 26-year-old righty relinquished 13 runs in just nine total innings of work. The Phillies lost both of those games. Washington holds the overall edge in the form department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Nationals have won their last eight road games against right-handed starters. They have won 15 of their last 18 against the NL East and five of their last six series-openers. They have won four of their last five against starters with a WHIP over 1.30. Washington has triumphed in five of its last seven games against teams with winning records. However, it has lost six of its last eight against teams with a home winning percentage above .600. The Nats have lost 21 of their last 29 Friday games.

Philadelphia has won its last four home games against teams with a losing road record. Unfortunately, that is where the positive trends end. The Phillies have lost 12 of their last 17 against right-handed starting pitchers. They have dropped five of their last seven against teams with a winning record. They won just one of their last five games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Finally, they have lost five of their last six home games against teams with winning records.

As expected, Washington has been on a roll in Strasburg’s recent starts. The Nationals have won five of his last six series-openers and four of his last five starts against teams with winning records. Washington was victorious in 41 of his last 52 starts against the NL East. They won 39 of his last 51 road starts and 19 of his last 26 road starts against teams with winning records. On the flip side of things, and in line with the team trends, they have lost five of his last six Friday games.

Despite his erratic results, the Phillies have won Pivetta’s last four home starts. They have also prevailed in nine of his last 12 home starts against teams with winning records. They won 12 of his last 17 series-opening starts. On the other side of the coin, they have lost five of his last seven starts against teams with winning records. They have dropped 10 of his last 13 in starts following a loss in the team’s previous contest. Finally, they have lost nine of his last 12 against the NL East. Washington holds the edge in the trends department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Line
The line in this contest has seen some major movement. Philadelphia opened at -104 but now sits at +120, and at +121 on PointsBet. The Nationals, who have won seven of 11 meetings with Philadelphia this season, are currently -140. They also send the far superior pitcher to the mound.

Their league-worst bullpen always presents some risk, but the Nationals have positive head-to-head trends on their side. The club has won Strasburg’s last four road starts against Philadelphia and 18 of his last 22 against the NL East foe overall. Washington has won four of its last five against the Phillies. Pivetta, meanwhile, has struggled mightily against the Nationals and is winless in his last eight against them. This contest seems to provide a definitive lean. The Nationals are the pick.

Pick: Washington Nationals (-140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 25-23-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.