Top MLB Bet for July 15th
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Today’s play of the day is a battle between two playoff hopefuls who profile very differently. One team has the best record in baseball. The other sits at third in their own division. Both teams have been dominant at home this season. What looks to be the perceptible edge for this contest comes from the starting pitching options being sent to the mound. The visitors are sending what used to be the best pitcher in baseball to toe the rubber. The home team will be sending a pitcher they saw fit to send back to the minors last season. An initial glance provides a strong lean, but let’s see if our analysis concurs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 62-33 | 2 | 5.25 | +134 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 48-45 | 15 | 4.83 | -2 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Clayton Kershaw | 7-2 | 3.09 | 1.05 |
| Zach Eflin | 7-8 | 3.78 | 1.30 |
Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to do battle with the Philadelphia Phillies in an evening affair. The Dodgers have been on fire this season and have a league-leading 62 wins to 33 losses. They have been much better at home but still have a winning road record, 25-21 away from Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers have scored an elite 5.25 runs per game this season and lead the league with a +134 run differential. They are second in the league in team ERA. Los Angeles has won 14 of their last 22 contests. The Dodgers are 35-22 against teams with records of .500 or above.
Philadelphia has had an interesting season. They led the NL East for much of the season but now find themselves in third place. They currently sit at 48-45. Despite scoring 4.83 runs per game, Philadelphia has a negative run differential. The Phillies have been excellent at home this season where they hold a 28-19 record. Philadelphia has lost five of their last seven contests. The Phillies are 26-30 against .500 teams. Los Angeles is the team in superior form.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will be sending ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Philadelphia will be countering with the talented, but inconsistent, Zach Eflin. Clayton Kershaw, while not nearly as overpowering as he once was, is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has a 7-2 record with a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and just earned his eighth All-Star appearance. Kershaw has had his road struggles this season but still has a solid 3.99 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP. He earned just one win in his six road starts compared to six wins in his nine starts at home.
Kershaw has allowed two runs or less in eight of his 15 starts and three runs or less in 11 of 15. Los Angeles has lost his last three road starts. After winning his first eight starts of the season, the Dodgers have dropped four of his last six. Kershaw was dominant in his lone start against the Phillies this season. He blanked them over seven innings, posting six punchouts.
Zach Eflin has had an up-and-down season. Despite declining K/9 numbers, Eflin had a strong start to the season. However, much like his team did as a whole, he fell apart in June. Eflin now sits with a 7-8 record with a solid 3.78 ERA, but a 1.30 WHIP. He has been much better at home this season where he holds a 3.04 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has won five of his seven home starts. Eflin has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his 17 starts and three runs or less in 13. Philadelphia has lost seven of his last nine starts. He has yet to face the Dodgers this season. Los Angeles holds a significant edge in the pitcher form arena. They hold the overall edge in the form department.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Dodgers have won seven of their last 10 road games against teams with winning records. They have won 75 of their last 109 against the NL East. They have won 47 of their last 69 series openers. Finally, they have won 50 of their last 74 against teams with winning records. However, they have managed to lose six of their last eight road games against right-handed starting pitchers.
The Phillies have won 30 of their last 42 home games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have won five of their last seven home games. On the other side of things, they have lost 49 of their last 73 Monday games. They have lost four of their last five games following a win. They have dropped four of their last five against teams with a winning percentage over .600. Finally, they have lost five of their last six against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Los Angeles holds the edge in the team trends department.
The Dodgers always have a good chance to win when Clayton Kershaw is taking the mound. They have won 42 of his last 52 starts against the NL East. They have won 24 of his last 32 Monday starts. The Dodgers have won seven of his last 10 road starts against teams with winning records. They have won 61 of his last 85 starts in series openers. Finally, they have won 37 of his last 53 road starts.
The Phillies have struggled in Zach Eflin’s recent starts. They have lost four of his last five home starts against teams with winning records. They have lost four of his last five Monday games. The Phillies have lost 10 of his last 11 starts against the NL West. Finally, they have lost his last six starts against teams with winning records. Los Angeles holds a sizeable edge in the pitcher trends arena. The Dodgers hold the overall trend edge.
Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers
Line
The line for this contest has moved sharply overnight. When I first looked at the line to choose this contest as a value it sat at -160, it has now jumped to -175, and sits at -180 at PointsBet. Los Angeles managed to sweep Philadelphia in their only series against them this season. The recent head to head trends leave some cause for concern for those leaning Dodgers. This is especially true when one factors in how well the Phillies have played at home this season. Los Angeles has dropped six of their last eight contests in Philadelphia. However, the Phillies have lost Eflin’s last four starts against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won six of Kershaw’s last eight starts against Philadelphia.
This would be an easy pick if the Dodgers were playing at home, but then the odds would look much different. The Dodgers are still the play but it may be advisable to tack them onto a parlay with some UFC 240 action if the line continues to move unfavorably. Lock in the Dodgers as soon as possible to avoid this play becoming a matchup to fade due to soaring odds.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 25-23-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.