Top MLB Bet for July 1st

On a slow day of MLB action, the pickings are as slim as ever as far as appealing matchups are concerned. Today’s play of the day is a battle of two NL West foes who have already faced off nine times this season. The team playing at home in those contests has won six times. This is an interesting matchup as it features a rookie pitcher making his third start and a veteran pitcher who has not been at the top of his game since 2014 when the rookie was just 17 years of age. The two teams in question have been at opposite ends of the spectrum as far as form this season. The initial lean seems clear, but let’s see if our analysis bears it out.

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San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
San Francisco Giants	36-47	25	3.93	-89
San Diego Padres	42-41	15	4.57	-17

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Jeff Samardzija	4-7	4.52	1.29
Logan Allen	2-0	1.38	1.15

 
Form
The San Francisco Giants are set to do battle with their divisional and in-state rivals, the San Diego Padres. San Francisco has had a trying season. They are one of only three teams in the league averaging fewer than 3.93 runs per game. They currently sit nine games under .500 at 36-47. San Francisco has lost eight of their last 13 contests. The Giants have an identical number of wins on the road and at home. They sit at 18-22 away from AT&T Park.

San Diego has had an up and down season but now find themselves at a healthy 42-41. They have been strong at home this season where they hold a 23-21 record. They have allowed only 3.77 runs against at home vs a 5.18 road mark. The Padres have won eight of their last 12 contests. San Diego holds the edge in the team form arena.

The San Francisco Giants are sending the inconsistent Jeff Samardzija to the mound. San Diego will be countering with rookie hurler Logan Allen. Jeff Samardzija has been a disappointment once again this season. He has never been a top-tier pitcher, but he has had some rock-solid campaigns. He is 4-7 on the season. Samardzija has a 4.52 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He has been a disaster on the road this season. Samardzija has a 5.18 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP through eight road starts. He has given up three or more runs in 10 of his 14 starts this season. The Giants have lost seven of his last nine starts.

Logan Allen has been locked in since being called up by the San Diego Padres. He is 2-0 through two starts. He has a 1.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Allen blanked the Brewers through seven innings at home in his first start. He came back to earth in his second start, giving up three runs in six innings on the road to the Baltimore Orioles. The Padres’ No. 5 prospect in a loaded pipeline, Allen had his share of troubles with Triple-A ball this season. San Diego holds the edge in both team and pitcher form.

Edge: San Diego Padres

Trends
The trends for this contest are intriguing on both sides. San Francisco has lost their last four road games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have lost four of their last five against lefties overall. They have lost 21 of their last 28 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Giants have lost 45 of their last 64 against teams with a winning record. On the brighter side of things, they have won six of their last eight series openers.

San Diego has won five of their last six home games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have won four of their last five Monday games and four of their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. They have won nine of their last 13 series openers. The Padres have won five of their last six home games. On the other side of things, the Padres have lost five of their last seven home games against teams with a losing record. They have lost eight of their last 10 against teams with a losing record.

The Giants have won five of Samardzija’s last six Monday starts. Unfortunately, that is where the positive trends end. They have lost 11 of his last 16 road starts. They have lost nine of his last 13 starts against the NL West. San Francisco has lost 20 of his last 26 starts against teams with a winning record. Finally, they have lost 19 of his last 24 road starts against teams with winning records. Logan Allen has not pitched in enough games to qualify for any trends. He has won his only two starts in the majors. San Diego holds the overall edge in the trends department.

Edge: San Diego Padres

Line
The line for this contest has remained relatively static overnight. It opened at -169, and currently sits at -171 at PointsBet. It should see some movement before game time, but all in all, today is just a very slow day of action. The Padres are the better team in this contest and also have the benefit of playing at home. Despite Logan Allen making only his second start, the Padres are sending what looks to be the better pitcher to the mound. San Fran has lost four of their last five games in San Diego. San Diego appears to hold a distinct edge in this matchup.

Pick: San Diego Padres (-171)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-21-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.