Top MLB Bet for July 24th

Today’s play of the day features two teams with very different season outlooks. The visiting team is well on its way to the playoffs. The home team has been one of the worst teams in the league all season. There appears to be some value in the line due to the starting pitchers taking the mound. The home and away splits tell a different tale than one may expect. Let’s see if our analysis confirms our initial lean for the visiting team.

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Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Cleveland Indians	58-42	7	4.57	+48
Toronto Blue Jays	39-64	26	4.33	-82

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Shane Bieber	9-3	3.69	1.05
Marcus Stroman	6-10	3.06	1.25

 
Form
The Cleveland Indians are set to do battle with the Toronto Blue Jays. Cleveland now finds themselves 16 games over .500 at 58-42 after struggling out of the gate. They have found a way to put their run scoring woes behind them and now sit at a 4.57 mark on the season. Heading into last night’s game they were one of the few teams in the league that had scored more on the road. Cleveland has a rock solid 26-21 record away from home. The Indians have won eight of 12 since the All-Star break.

Toronto has been as poor as expected this season. However, they are not the worst team in the league by any stretch and still have one or two bright spots on the team. They have an eyesore of a record at 39-64. The Blue Jays have allowed more runs than they score and currently sit with a -82 run differential. The Jays have won more games on the road than they have at home and currently sport a 19-31 record at the Rogers Centre. They have lost seven of 12 since the All-Star break. Cleveland holds the edge in the team form arena.

Cleveland will be sending top pitcher Shane Bieber to toe the rubber. Toronto will be countering with the soon-to-be-traded Marcus Stroman. Shane Bieber has been pitching at a high level this season. He has 156 strikeouts in 124.1 innings and has an excellent 9-3 record. He has a solid 3.69 ERA and a solid 1.05 WHIP. Bieber has allowed two runs or less in 12 of his 20 starts this season. He has actually been better away from Progressive Field as he holds a 6-2 record through nine road starts with a 3.06 ERA and a sparkling 0.84 WHIP. Bieber was strong in his lone start against the Blue Jays this season. He struck out nine over six innings of two-hit, two-run ball. Cleveland has won his last five starts.

Marcus Stroman has been one of the lone bright spots for a struggling Toronto Blue Jays team. He has a rock-solid 3.06 ERA but has paired that with a decidedly average 1.25 WHIP. He has an unsightly 6-10 record on the season. Stroman has been better on the road this season as he currently sports a 3.47 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at the Rogers Centre. Stroman was so-so in his lone start against the Indians this season, as he gave up three runs over six innings while striking out six. He has allowed three runs or less in all but three of his 20 starts this season. The Jays have won three of his last four starts. Cleveland holds the overall edge in the form department.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Cleveland has won seven of their last eight road games. They have won 11 of their last 13 games following a win. They have won five of their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage below .400. Cleveland has won 58 of their last 85 game threes. Finally, they have won 37 of their last 53 Wednesday games.

Toronto has lost 37 of their last 55 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have lost 31 of their last 46 games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Jays have lost 30 of their last 42 games against teams with winning records. They have lost 13 of their last 18 home games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost seven of their last nine home games against teams with winning road records. Finally, Toronto has lost 32 of their last 44 Wednesday games. Cleveland holds the edge in the team trends arena.

Cleveland has been on a roll in Shane Bieber’s recent starts. They have won his last five Wednesday starts, and 20 of his last 28 starts overall. The Indians have won seven of his last eight starts against the AL East. They have won 12 of his last 15 road starts. They have won seven of his last eight road starts against teams with losing records. Finally, they have won 16 of his last 21 starts against teams with losing records.

As expected, Toronto has found a way to lose the majority of Marcus Stroman’s recent starts. They have lost five of his last seven games against the AL Central. The Blue Jays have lost his last five Wednesday starts. They have lost four of his last five following games where the Blue Jays allowed two runs or less. However, they have found a way to win four of his last five starts on four days rest. Cleveand holds the overall edge in the form department.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Line
The line for this contest has already started to move. It opened at -135 for the Indians, and currently sits at -140 at PointsBet. The Indians and Blue Jays have split the first two games of this series so this contest will likely come down to pitcher form. Marcus Stroman has been strong this season, but has actually been better away from home. The same can be said for Cleveland pitcher Shane Bieber. With Bieber on the road, he gives the Indians the edge in the pitcher arena. Cleveland has won five of their last six games against the Blue Jays. Finally, Marcus Stroman has dropped five of his last seven starts against Cleveland. Cleveland holds what looks like a sizeable advantage in this contest and looks like a value at -140,

Pick: Cleveland Indians (-140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 28-25-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.