Top MLB Bet for July 5th 

It’s a tough day for sports bettors. Vegas has wisely set the lines on all the most attractive matchups higher than one usually wants to stomach. Of course, parlaying them with some of this weekend’s UFC action is always an option. Instead, we will focus on a high-value play that seems to present an immediate lean not only on the moneyline, but on the over/under total as well. A battle of two of the leagues best is always difficult to handicap, and the line for this contest reflects that.

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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
New York Yankees	56-29	1	5.77	+111
Tampa Bay Rays	50-36	4	4.60	+82

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Masahiro Tanaka	5-5	3.74	1.18
Brendan McKay	1-0	0.00	0.33

 
Form
The New York Yankees are set for a heavyweight battle with divisional foe the Tampa Bay Rays. New York has been remarkable this season. They lead the AL East with a 56-29 record despite dealing with multiple lengthy injuries to their top talents. They lead the majors with 5.77 runs scored per game and have the second-best run differential in the league. The Yankees have been great on the road this season where they hold a 25-15 record. New York has a truly outstanding 23-11 record against teams with winning records. They have won 15 of their last 17 games. They scored a robust 7.52 runs per game over that timespan. With 6.31 runs per game, New York has actually scored more runs per game away from Yankee Stadium. They have scored five runs per game over their last three contests.

Tampa Bay has continued to prove themselves as World Series contenders this season. They have a great 50-36 record and lead the league in team ERA. Thanks to their stellar pitching they have an impressive +82 run differential. The Rays have been solid at home where they hold a 24-21 record. They have struggled against winning teams this season and have a losing record at 25-28. They have won only two of the 10 contests they have played against the Yankees this season. The Rays have won five of their last eight, but have lost 10 of their last 17. That 17 includes four straight losses to the Yankees. The Yankees are the team in superior form.

New York will be sending the exciting Masahiro Tanaka to the mound. Tampa Bay will be countering with top prospect Brendan McKay. Tanaka has been solid this season and holds a 5-5 record. His 3.74 ERA and 1.18 WHIP are nothing to write home about, but would, in fact, look good on almost any other pitcher. Tanaka has been a walking disaster on the road this season. He has a 5.35 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP, numbers that would likely get him bounced from the Yankees rotation if he carried his road woes back home with him.

Tanaka has however been lights out against the Rays this season. He has given up only one run over three starts and has two victories. The only run he gave up was at Tropicana Field. He has an outstanding 0.41 ERA and 0.50 WHIP against the Rays this season. He has given up four or more runs in six of his 17 starts. The Yankees have won his last four starts.

Electrifying prospect Brendan McKay has made just one start in the majors, but it was a great one. If you wanted to nitpick you could point to the fact that he only struck out three. He needed just 81 pitches to get through six innings and blanked one of the leagues offensive juggernauts in terms of runs scored per game in the Texas Rangers. He allowed only two baserunners, one walk, and one hit.

McKay is a two-way prospect that dazzled in the minors. He sprinted his way up to the big club due to what looks to be a top of the rotation arm. McKay had a 1.08 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP through his 25 innings at AAA. The Yankees appear to have the edge due to having the more seasoned starter, but the line suggests that Vegas sees this as a push at best. New York holds the overall form edge due to its team form advantage.

Edge: Yankees/Under

Trends
With this contest being too difficult to peg due to McKay making only his second start in the bigs, we will be focusing on over/under trends. The team trends in this contest seem to favor the over.

The over has been hit in the Yankees last four contests against the AL East, as well as their last five games against teams with winning records. It is 4-1-1 in their last six Friday games. It is 37-13-2 in their last 52 road games. The over is 7-3 in their last 10 overall. It is 19-7-1 in their last 27 road games against teams with winning records. Finally, the over has been hit in five of their last seven road games against a left-handed starting pitcher. On the other side of things, the under has been hit in four of their last five game twos. The under is 4-1-1 in their last six Friday games.

Interestingly, the pitcher trends support the under. The under has been hit in Tanaka’s last four starts on five days rest. It has been hit in 11 of his last 15 Friday starts. It is 5-0-1 in his last six game twos of a series. Finally, the under is 11-5-2 in his last 18 starts against teams with winning records. With McKay making only his second big league start he does not qualify for any trends whatsoever. The team trends overwhelmingly support the over, giving it the edge in our trends analysis.

Edge: Over

Line
A battle of two of the leagues best can go either way. The Yankees have dominated the season series, but the Rays are sending a true wildcard to the mound. As such we will be focusing on the over/under. The total currently sits at 8.5 at PointsBet. The under is listed at even money while the over is -121. Half of the games played between these two teams this season have gone under the posted total. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in this matchup due to Brendan McKay taking the mound. If it was any other healthy Rays pitcher taking the mound, the Yankees moneyline would be the multi-unit play.

Three of Tanaka’s last four starts have gone over the posted total. The total has been cleared in nine of his 17 starts. Tanaka has been sensational against the Rays this season, giving up only one run in 22 innings of work. At first look, this contest looks like an overplay. Especially when one considers the over is 6-0-1 in these two teams last seven meetings in Tampa Bay. It has been hit in Tanaka’s last six road starts against the Rays. However, the under is 5-2 in his last seven starts against them overall. Given his success against them this year and McKay’s excellent major league debut, our analysis has revealed that the under may be the more prudent wager.

Pick: Under (+100)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 25-22-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.