Top MLB Bet for June 12th

Our top play of the day is a battle between two MLB powerhouses. Both teams lead their divisions and appear in the top 10 of our latest power rankings. This is an interesting interleague affair between two teams that switched leagues. While both squads will be sending pitchers who sit at or near the top of the major’s wins leaderboard, one pitcher is far superior. In a contest that could truly go either way, we lean on potential edges in both the pitching department, as well as by way of which team is playing at home. The home team has the better pitcher, the better record, and has played much better against teams above .500. Amazingly, there is still some value in the current line at PointsBet.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Milwaukee Brewers	38-29	9	5.07	+10
Houston Astros	46-22	3	5.17	+99

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Brandon Woodruff	8-1	3.87	1.17
Justin Verlander	9-2	2.31	0.74

 
Form
The Milwaukee Brewers are set to do battle with the Houston Astros in what looks like the marquee matchup of the evening. The Brewers sit on top of the NL Central with an impressive 38-29 record. They have scored a healthy 5.07 runs per game this season but have only a +10 run differential. They are .500 on the road with a 16-16 record. The Brewers sit at 19-21 against teams above .500. They were on a four-game winning streak before dropping the opening game of this series.

The Houston Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball. They have the best record in the majors at 46-22. They are one of six teams in the top 10 in both runs scored and team ERA. Houston has been elite at Minute Maid Park, and hold the best home record in baseball at 25-9. They hold a truly elite 29-17 record against teams above .500. Houston has won 28 of their last 36 games. Houston holds the edge in team form.

The Brewers will be sending the unheralded, yet impressive Brandon Woodruff to the mound. Houston will be countering with ageless ace Justin Verlander. Woodruff has an impressive 8-1 record through 13 starts. He has found his stride since the start of May and has worked his ERA and WHIP down to 3.87 and 1.17 respectively. He has allowed two runs or less in all but five of his starts. Woodruff has an impressive 90 strikeouts in 74.1 innings. As expected, he has been much better at home this season. He is 2-1 through five road starts and has a 4.03 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Brewers have won his last eight starts, and 11 of 13 overall.

Justin Verlander is in the midst of yet another dominant season. He is 9-2 through 14 starts. He has an excellent 2.31 ERA and a minuscule 0.79 WHIP that rates as the best mark of his career. Verlander has relinquished one run or less in all but five of his starts. Houston has won 11 of his 14 starts. His Cy Young-like numbers look even better at home this season. He has an elite 1.75 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. He has won three of his five outings at Minute Maid Park. Houston holds the edge in both the team and pitching form departments.

Edge: Houston Astros

Trends
There are some interesting trends on the Brewers side of things. The Astros trends read as one might expect.

Milwaukee has been strong recently but has been very poor in interleague contests. Let’s start with the good. They have won four of their last five games following a loss. They have won eight of their last 11 road games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Interestingly, that is where the positive team trends end. The Brewers have lost four of their last five interleague games against a right-handed starting pitcher. They have lost five of their last six interleague games, and are 1-4 in their last five game twos. Milwaukee has lost five of their last six interleague games against teams with winning records. They hold the same mark in their last five interleague road games against teams with winning records. They have lost eight of their last nine interleague road games. Finally, they have lost their last six games against the AL West.

No one needs trends to know that the Astros have been on a roll recently. With that being the case we will focus on interleague trends. The Astros have won five of their last six interleague games against teams with winning records. They hold the same mark in their last six interleague home games against teams with winning records. They have won 10 of their last 13 interleague home games against right-handed starting pitchers. Houston has won 35 of their last 51 interleague games. Finally, they have won 39 of their last 58 interleague games against right-handed starters. Houston holds the edge in team trends.

The Brewers have been rolling in Brandon Woodruff’s recent starts. They have won his last four road starts and his last five game twos of a series. They have won his last five starts against teams with winning records. Milwaukee has won seven of his last eight road starts against teams with winning records. Finally, they have won 16 of his last 21 starts.

The Astros have won Justin Verlander’s last seven Wednesday starts. They have won eight of his last 10 home starts. They are 13-3 in his last 16 game twos of a series. Houston has won nine of his last 12 starts against teams with a winning record. They have won 16 of his last 21 starts on five days rest. Finally, they have won 43 of his last 61 starts overall. The Astros hold the edge in the pitching trends department, but it is closer than expected. Houston has the edge in the trends arena.

Edge: Houston Astros

Line
This contest opened as a solid potential value at -150 for the Houston Astros. And Justin Verlander is pitching. At home. It is not often you will hear odds that low for a Justin Verlander home start. However, the early and sharp money has been on Milwaukee. The line currently sits at a very attractive -131 at PointsBet.

The Astros have not only been the better team this season, but they will also be sending the superior pitcher to the mound. As yesterday’s 10-8 offensive explosion showed, both of these teams are capable of offensive fireworks so overall team ERA also has to be taken into account. When the fact that the Brewers have dropped five of their last seven in Houston is added to the equation, the Astros look like the no-brainer play. The Astros hold the edge virtually everywhere and look like the lean in what promises to be an interesting contest.

Pick: Houston Astros (-131)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 22-17-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.