Top MLB Bet for June 14th

There are some interesting matchups on an action-packed Friday, but no game truly stands out as a value. As such, we will focus on bankroll growth. When placing action on contests with large odds it is prudent to combine the play in a parlay. Sinking multiple units for a one unit return is not something that is often recommended in baseball. This matchup features the team with the best record in the league against the team with the third-worst mark. Incredibly, the home team has lost only five games all season against teams under the .500 mark.

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Toronto Blue Jays	25-43	28	3.88	-73
Houston Astros	46-23	3	5.14	+96

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Aaron Sanchez	3-7	4.25	1.54
Gerrit Cole	5-5	3.72	1.00

 
Form
The Toronto Blue Jays have been an embarrassment this season. Unfortunately, this is what happens when over $46 million is allocated to three players playing on other teams. Despite having one of the most exciting prospects in baseball finally with the big club, the Blue Jays are 25-43 on the season. They have scored a pitiful 3.88 runs and are one of only four teams scoring under four runs per game. They have one of the worst run differentials in the league at -73. The Blue Jays have lost 15 of their last 20 games. They are 13-21 on the road.

The Houston Astros have been on fire this season. They currently have the second-best record in baseball at 46-23. They have scored an electric 5.14 runs per game and have an outstanding +96 run differential. Houston is one of only six teams in the top 10 in both runs scored per game and team ERA. Houston has won 28 of their last 37 games. They have been elite at home where they hold a 25-10 record. Houston holds a significant edge in the team form department.

The Houston Astros will be sending flamethrower Gerrit Cole to the mound. Toronto will be countering with the struggling Aaron Sanchez. Cole has a solid 5-5 record through 14 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 14 starts. Cole has been excellent at home this season where he sports a 3.86 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through seven games. The Astros have won seven of his last eight starts.

Aaron Sanchez has continued to disappoint in 2019. He is 3-7 through 14 starts. He has a 4.25 ERA which he has paired with an unsightly 1.54 WHIP. Sanchez has, however, managed to limit opponents to two runs or less in exactly half of his starts. He has been atrocious through eight road starts and currently sits with a 1-4 record. His 4.72 ERA and 1.70 WHIP on the road are below replacement level. Toronto has lost seven of his last eight starts. Houston holds a significant edge in the pitcher form department.

Trends
This contest boasts some intriguing trends. Toronto has surprisingly won four of their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage over .600. That is where the positive trends end. The Jays have lost 37 of their last 55 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have lost 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record and seven of their last nine road games. They have lost five of their last six against the AL West. Finally, they have lost seven of their last eight series openers.

Houston has won nine of their last 12 against the AL East. They have won 39 of their last 54 Friday games and 45 of their last 61 series openers. They have won 39 of their last 51 games against teams with a road winning percentage below .400. Finally, they have won six of their last eight games against a starter with a WHIP higher than 1.30. Houston holds a substantial edge in the team trends arena.

The Blue Jays have lost five of Aaron Sanchez’ last seven starts against the AL West. They have lost eight of his last nine road starts against teams with winning records. They have lost his last four starts against teams with winning records. Toronto has lost five of his last seven series openers.

Houston has been on a roll in Gerrit Cole’s recent starts. They have won his last four series openers and five of his last six Friday starts. They have won 10 of his last 11 home starts against teams with a losing record. Houston has won 15 of his last 18 starts against teams with a losing record. They have won 18 of his last 23 home starts. Finally, they have won five of his last seven starts against the AL East. As expected, Houston holds the edge in both team and pitching trends.

Edge: Houston Astros

Line
The line in this contest is as lopsided as one may expect. There was some strong value when the line opened, but the sharps and early bettors did not let it last long. It opened up at -230, and currently sits at -291 at PointsBet. With odds this large this is a wager to include in a parlay, perhaps with some of next weekend’s UFC action. The Blue Jays seem to have only a puncher’s chance in this matchup. They have lost four of their last five meetings in Houston and are facing off against the superior pitcher. Houston has trends and form on their side. The Astros are the definitive lean in this contest and should be locked in as soon as possible. The line may continue to go up.

Edge: Houston Astros (-291)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 22-17-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.