Top MLB Bet for June 19th

Today’s play of the day features two of Major League Baseball’s powerhouses. Both teams have scored over five runs per game and are sending seven-win pitchers to the mound. This matchup feels like a classic toss-up scenario in which the outcome can easily go either way. Luckily, the odds reflect that and have provided solid value on both sides. Let’s dig in to see which team provides a stronger lean.

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Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Boston Red Sox	40-35	6	5.32	+100
Minnesota Twins	48-24	5	5.85	+50

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Eduardo Rodriguez	7-4	4.67	1.34
Kyle Gibson	7-3	3.70	1.17

 
Form
The Boston Red Sox are set to do battle with the Minnesota Twins in an evening affair. Boston has turned their season around and currently sits with a relatively impressive 40-35 record. They have scored a solid 5.32 runs per game and have a rock-solid +50 run differential on the season. Due to limiting runs against, they have actually been better on the road this season where they hold a 23-18 record. Boston has won six of its last seven contests. However, they have a poor 17-24 mark against teams with a winning record.

Minnesota has been one of the hottest teams in baseball and holds a 48-24 record. They lead the league in runs scored per game and are one of only nine teams under four runs per contest in team ERA. They have the second largest run differential in the league at +100. The Twins have an identical home and road record at 24-12. They have won seven of their last 11. Their 19-14 mark against teams with winning record gives them one of the best percentages against teams of that nature. The Twins hold an obvious edge in the team form arena.

The Boston Red Sox will be sending the talented, yet inconsistent, Eduardo Rodriguez to the mound. Minnesota will be countering with the impressive Kyle Gibson. It has not been the prettiest season for Rodriguez. He has an impressive 7-4 record through 14 starts and 84 strikeouts in 79.1 innings. However, he has a 4.67 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He has allowed two runs or less in half of his starts but has given up four or more runs on six occasions. Rodriguez has been brutal on the road this season where he holds a 5.23 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He has, however, managed to win four of his eight starts. He has started to show flashes in June and holds a 2-1 record with a 3.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Boston has won 10 of his 14 starts.

Kyle Gibson has been brilliant this season. He is averaging a K/9 for the first time in his career and currently sports a career-low WHIP of 1.17. His 3.70 ERA is just a shade higher than his career watermark set last season. He has a 7-3 record through 13 starts and has helped the Twins power an impressive opening salvo to the season. Gibson has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 13 outings. He has been pitching in All-Star form at home where he holds a 2.45 ERA and a minuscule 0.79 WHIP. He is 4-0 in five starts. Minnesota has won nine of his starts this season. The Twins hold the edge in both pitching form and team form.

Edge: Minnesota Twins

Trends
As one may expect from a battle of two of the league’s best, the trends provide little in the way of edge. Both have winning trends supporting a victory. Some still intrigue more than others, so we will cover them briefly. The Red Sox have won four of their last five against the AL Central. They have won 58 of their last 73 game threes. They have won 20 of their last 28 road games.

Minnesota has won five of their last six against teams with winning records. They have won 21 of their last 26 game threes and their last five against lefties. The Twins have won five of their last six home games against teams with winning road records. They have won four of their last five games against the AL East. Finally, they have won 46 of their last 60 against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.30. No team holds an edge in the team form department.

Boston has been on a roll in Eduardo Rodriguez’s recent starts. They have won his last six starts against the AL Central and his last seven Wednesday starts. They have won 17 of his last 21 game threes. Boston has won 16 of his last 21 road starts. Finally, they have won eight of his last 11 road starts against teams with winning records.

Minnesota has won Kyle Gibson’s last four home starts. as well as his last six game threes. They have won four of his last five against the AL East. They have won 12 of his last 16 starts. However, they have lost four of his last five home starts against teams with winning records. Boston holds a slight edge in the trends department due to their minor edge in the pitching trends arena.

Edge: Boston Red Sox

Line
The line in this contest is as close as one may expect from a battle between two of the best teams in baseball. The early money has been on Minnesota who opened at -114 and moved all the way to -125, before dropping -117, and -121 at PointsBet. The over/under has also seen a spike to 10 runs from its open of 9.5.

This is a hard contest to gauge. Minnesota has been one of the best teams in baseball, but the Red Sox are the defending champions. Kyle Gibson has been the better pitcher this season and seems to give the Twins a decided edge. The trends provide little in the way of a lean due to two powerhouses going head to head. This contest could truly go either way, but Rodrguez’s poor play on the road gives Boston a lower win probability when facing the runs per game leader in Minnesota. The Twins are the slight lean at -121.

Pick: Minnesota Twins (-121)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-17-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.