Top MLB Bet for June 21st

Our play of the day features a battle of the AL Central. These two teams have had opposite fortunes this season. The home team has a winning record and is sending one of 2018’s best pitchers to the mound. The visiting team is one of only five teams under a .400 winning percentage. Despite this, there is still legitimate intrigue on both sides of this contest. Let’s dig a little deeper to ascertain if we can establish a definitive lean.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Detroit Tigers	26-44	25	3.54	-132
Cleveland Indians	39-35	17	4.37	+15

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Matt Boyd	5-5	3.35	1.08
Trevor Bauer	5-6	3.41	1.12

 
Form
The Detroit Tigers are set to do battle with AL Central rivals the Cleveland Indians. The Tigers have been having a forgettable season. They are 18 games under .500 at 26-44 and have the second-worst run differential in the entire league. They are one of only five teams scoring less than four runs per game. While they have been better on the road this season, they still have a losing record at 15-20. They have lost 12 of their last 16 contests.

Cleveland has had an up and down season but currently sports a solid 39-35 record. They have scored a solid 4.37 runs per game. They are one of only eight teams surrendering four runs or less per game. Cleveland has been solid at home this season where they hold a 20-17 record on the year. They have won five of their last seven. That includes a sweep of the Tigers in Detroit. Cleveland has been the team in better form.

Detroit will be sending the impressive Matt Boyd to the mound. Cleveland will be countering with 2018 breakout pitcher Trevor Bauer. Matt Boyd is in the midst of a career season. He has a ho-hum 5-5 record but a rock solid 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He has struck out 112 batters across 88.1 innings. Boyd has allowed two runs or less in eight of his 15 starts. However, he has allowed three or more runs in his last three starts. Boyd has actually been better on the road this season. He has a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP on the road but has superior K/9 and BAA against numbers. Due to playing for one of the weaker teams in the majors, his team has lost six of his last seven starts. Boyd allowed only one run in his lone start against Cleveland this season.

Trevor Bauer has looked much more human after a lights out 2018. A 3.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP are solid, but still a far cry from the elite numbers he put up last season. He has struck out 117 batters in 108.1 innings. Bauer has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his 16 starts. However, he has given up four or more runs in the remaining six. Rather interestingly, Bauer has been better on the road this season. He has been lit up at home, and currently holds a 4.94 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Cleveland has lost four of his last six starts.

He has faced Detroit twice this season allowing four runs in 14.2 innings. He struck out 15 in the two road appearances but was scorched for four runs in 5.2 innings in his first start. Detroit holds the edge in the pitching form department. These two teams are deadlocked in the form arena.

Edge: Even

Trends
There are some intriguing trends in this contest. Detroit has lost nine of their last 13 series openers and 36 of their last 51 Friday games. They have lost five of their last seven road games. They have lost 40 of their last 55 games against teams with winning records. The Tigers have dropped their last four against the AL Central. Finally, they have lost 42 of their last 55 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15.

Cleveland has won six of their last seven games against left-handed starting pitchers. They have won five of their last six against the AL Central, and four of their last five series openers. They have won four of their last five games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. Strangely, they have lost four of their last five home games against teams with losing road records. Cleveland holds the edge in the team trends department.

The Tigers have won eight of Boyd’s last 11 starts when their opponent has scored two runs or less in their previous game. Unfortunately, that is where the positive trends end. They have lost 20 of his last 28 road starts and eight of his last 10 Friday games. Finally, they have lost his last four starts against teams with winning records.

Cleveland has won six of Trevour Bauer’s last seven series openers. They have won 41 of his last 60 starts on four days rest. However, they have dropped five of his last seven home starts. They sit at the same mark in his last seven Friday starts. They have lost four of his last five starts against the AL Central. These two teams are pretty even in the pitcher trend arena. Cleveland holds the overall trend edge.

Edge: Cleveland Indians

Line
The line on this contest is interesting. It is no surprise that Cleveland has opened as the favorite. However, the early money has been on Cleveland despite them starting a pitcher who has struggled at home this season. The line in this contest has moved from -193 to -200, and currently sits at -196 at PointsBet. The Tigers are an appealing +165. -200 on the Indians is a little too steep against Matt Boyd, especially with Bauer seeing his ERA double when at home versus on the road. Cleveland is the better team but has struggled to score runs at times. Matt Boyd makes the Tigers a very attractive value.

Pick: Detroit Tigers (+167)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-18-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.