Top MLB Bet for June 24th

Despite a light slate in terms of games scheduled, we have what looks like an All-World pitchers duel on our hands. Our play of the day is a battle between two NL West rivals. The visiting team is arguably the best team in baseball. The home team sits one game under .500.

Despite the contrasting fortunes of the two teams, Vegas has set the line based on the strengths of the pitchers. This presents a solid value-based opportunity. Let’s take a closer look at the top MLB Bet for June 24.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Los Angeles Dodgers	54-25	2	5.25	+133
Arizona Diamondbacks	39-40	14	5.12	+39

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Clayton Kershaw	7-1	2.85	1.05
Zack Greinke	8-3	2.91	0.93

Form
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to do battle with their division rivals in the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have been on fire this season, and hold a 54-25 record. They have scored an elite 5.25 runs per game, and hold the top run differential in the league. They have won six straight games and have won five of seven against the Diamondbacks this season. The Dodgers have looked much more mortal on the road this year, but still have a rock solid 20-16 record.

Arizona has had an interesting season. They have impressed at times, but find themselves saddled with a 39-40 record. They have scored an elite level with 5.12 runs per game this season, but have lost six of their last seven contests. Interestingly, the Diamondbacks have actually been much worse at home this season. They have a 15-21 home record versus a 24-19 road record. The Dodgers have been the team in better form.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be sending ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound. Arizona will be countering with their own ace Zack Greinke. Kershaw has a terrific 7-1 record through 12 games. His K/9 numbers are still not back to his “best pitcher in baseball” form, but he is still one of the best. He is currently rocking a 2.85 ERA and 1.05 WHIP, allowing three runs or less in all but one of his starts. Kershaw has allowed two runs or less in seven of his 12 starts.

He has some interesting road numbers this season. He has a 1-1 record in four starts and has a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. All of these numbers are inferior to his home stats, but he has managed to post a far superior BAA of .211 on the road. He is also averaging a K/9 on the road. The Dodgers have won all but one of Clayton Kershaw’s starts this season.

Zack Greinke has an excellent 8-3 record through 16 starts. He has a rock solid 2.91 ERA and a sparkling 0.93 WHIP. Greinke has allowed three runs or less in all but three of his starts.

Like the Diamondbacks in general, he has been better on the road this season. He has five wins in nine road starts and holds a great 2.78 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Arizona has won three of his last four starts. Greinke was blown up for seven runs in just 3.2 innings in his lone start against the Dodgers this season.

It is close, but the Dodgers have the pitcher in better form. The Dodgers hold the overall edge in the form department.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Trends
The trends for this contest play out as expected, but there are still some worthy of noting. Los Angeles has won 42 of their last 55 games against the NL West. They have won 43 of their last 60 games against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have won 44 of their last 64 series openers, and 36 of their last 52 following a victory.

The Diamondbacks have lost 17 of their last 54 games against the NL West. They have lost 10 of their last 14 Monday games. Finally, they have lost four of their last five home games against left-handed starting pitchers. The Dodgers hold a distinct edge in the team trends arena.

As expected, the Dodgers have an increased likelihood to win every time Clayton Kershaw takes the mound. They have won 56 of their last 69 against the NL West, and 43 of his last 59 series openers. The Dodgers have won 35 of Kershaw’s last 51 road starts against teams with losing records. Finally, they have won 48 of his last 65 starts on five days rest.

As one may expect, Arizona is a much better team when Zack Greinke is on the mound. They have won six of his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. They have won four of his last five home starts against winning teams. Arizona has won eight of his last 10 starts on four days rest, and 35 of his last 52 home starts.

On the other side of things, the Diamondbacks have lost his last four starts against the NL West. They have also lost five of his last seven Monday starts. The Dodgers hold the edge in the trends department.

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers

Line
The line on this contest provides some solid value on the Dodgers. They have won six straight games, and are facing a team who has lost five straight at home. Both teams are sending their aces to the mound, so this contest could very likely come down to the bullpen. With that said, the Dodgers have won eight of Kershaw’s last 10 starts against the Diamondbacks. The line has already started to move in this contest with the Diamondbacks opening at +125, moving to where it currently sits at +127. The line is currently posted at -125 at PointsBet.

The Dodgers at -145 profiles as a tremendous value. Zack Greinke has been dominant this season, but had his worst start of the season against these very same Dodgers. This is a line that could look very different by game time. Lock this one in as soon as possible. Los Angeles is the play.

Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-145)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-19-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.