Top MLB Bet for June 26th

Today’s play of the day is a battle between two NL East foes. A cursory glance at this matchup may lead one to believe that the road team is the better play in this contest. They outscore the home team by 1.5 runs per game on the season, and have a superior record. They are sending a known quantity to the mound who is fresh off of a career season. The home team is countering with a rookie pitcher making his second start ever.

If that was not bad enough, until just two weeks ago the home team was universally considered the worst team in baseball. So why is there evidence of value on both sides of this contest? Why have the sharps slammed the home team hard enough to cause some major line movement? Let’s dig a little deeper to find out. 

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Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	38-40	13	4.98	+11
Miami Marlins	30-47	29	3.48	-75

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Patrick Corbin	6-5	3.90	1.20
Zac Gallen	1-0	1.80	1.40

Form
The Washington Nationals are set to do battle with a suddenly competent Miami Marlins team. Washington has been a disappointment this season and holds a 38-40 record. They have scored a solid 4.98 runs per game, but have been victimized by a league-worst bullpen for the majority of the season. Their bullpen has a 6.29 ERA. Their starters rank seventh in the league with a combined 3.48 ERA. Washington has been poor on the road this season, where they have a 17-21 record. Washington has begun to turn its season around and has won six of their last eight. They won the opening game of this series.

Miami has been bad this season. However, they are no longer the worst team in baseball. They have a 30-47 record and are one of only three teams scoring less than four runs per game. They are surprisingly 10th in the league in team ERA and third in combined starter ERA. Miami has been worse at home than on the road this season. They are 13-26 at Marlins Park compared to 17-21 on the road. Miami had won four straight before losing the opening game of this series. Washington holds the edge in the team form department.

The Washington Nationals will be sending the talented, but inconsistent Patrick Corbin to toe the rubber. Miami will be countering with intriguing rookie pitcher Zac Gallen. Patrick Corbin has been solid this season. However, he has not been living up to the expectations the Nationals had after signing him following his career year just last season. He has a solid 3.90 ERA and 1.20 WHIP and has a winning record at 6-5. Corbin has allowed three runs or less in all but four of his 15 starts, but he has been an absolute mess on the road this season, with a horrendous 5.41 ERA and 1.57 WHIP away from Nationals Park. Washington has lost four of his last six starts overall, as well as his last four road starts.

Zac Gallen will be making his second start of the season. He had a solid debut where he limited an impressive St. Louis Cardinals team to just one run. It was not a perfect debut, as he walked three and took 99 pitches to get through just five innings of work. Gallen was terrific in the minors this season, where he had a 1.17 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, and struck out 112 batters in 91.1 innings. Washington holds the edge in the pitcher form department, but Gallen’s upside makes it much closer than many may believe. Washington holds the overall edge in the form arena.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. Washington has won its last four road games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have also won their last four Wednesday games. They have won nine of their last 12 games against the NL East and they’ve won four of their last five against teams with a winning percentage lower than .400. On the other side of things, they have lost five of their last six against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400.

Miami has won four of their last five Wednesday games, and six of their last eight Game 2s. Unfortunately, that is where the good trends end. They have lost eight of their last 10 home games, and four of their last five against teams with a losing record. They have lost 50 of their last 73 against the NL East. Finally, they have lost five of their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record.

There is a distinct lack of pitching trends in this contest. This is due to Patrick Corbin joining the Nationals in the offseason, and Zac Gallen pitching in only his second major league game. The Nationals have won four of Corbin’s last five Game 2 starts. They have won four of his last five starts against the NL East. On the other side of things, as mentioned above, they have lost his last four road starts. Washington holds a mini edge in the pitcher trend arena purely due to having a seasoned pitcher heading to the mound. The Nationals hold a small overall edge in the trends department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Line
Sometimes finding value is about looking for a perceptible edge. The sharps have taken what looks like immediate notice of the value in my initial lean for this contest. Washington has been poor on the road this season, and Zac Gallen is one of the most exciting and intriguing young hurlers in baseball. With little by way of major league experience, there is some edge based value for those who know just how dominant Gallen was in the minors this season. The sharps and early bettors have dropped this line from +160 to +140, and +135 at PointsBet. There is a reason the Marlins opened as low as +160. That reason’s name is Zac Gallen. Washington has somehow managed to lose five of their last eight in Miami. Miami is the not so surprising lean for this contest.

Pick: Miami Marlins (+140)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-20-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.