Top MLB Bet for June 28th

Today’s play of the day is an interesting interleague affair. Despite standing out as one of the top plays of the day, it is also one of the best values. The home team has won nine of the last 13 meetings but is still the underdog. Let’s dig a little deeper to see where the value lies for our top MLB bet for June 28th.

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Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Washington Nationals	40-40	13	5.05	+16
Detroit Tigers	26-50	27	3.44	-147

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Anibal Sanchez	3-6	4.02	1.34
Daniel Norris	2-6	4.69	1.39

 
Form
The Washington Nationals are set to do battle in an interleague affair with the Detroit Tigers. Washington has turned their season around. They have battled their way through the worst bullpen in baseball and now sit at .500 at 40-40. Washington has been hot lately and have won three straight and eight of their last 10 games. Washington has scored a top-tier 5.05 runs per game. They have managed to post a positive run differential despite the aforementioned bullpen that tries to blow every lead they are given to protect. Washington has one of the best starting pitching staffs in baseball. They are seventh in the league in terms of combined starter ERA. Washington is a solid 19-21 on the road this season.

Detroit has been a disaster this season. They are scoring a full 1.5 runs less per game than the Nationals and currently sit at 3.44. They have lost nine of their last 10 and 13 of their last 15. The Tigers have actually been scoring fewer runs per contest at home with 3.21 vs. their 3.68 road mark. They have been much worse at home this season where they hold an 11-27 record. Washington holds a distinct edge in the team form department.

The Washington Nationals will be sending the disappointing Anibal Sanchez to the mound. The Tigers will be countering with the inconsistent Daniel Norris. Anibal Sanchez had a career year in 2018. However, he has not lived up to his promise since becoming a member of the Nationals. He has a poor 3-6 record with a 4.02 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Sanchez has allowed three runs or less in all but three of his 14 starts this season.

He has been just slightly better on the road this season where he holds a 3.89 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He has a .233 BAA on the road vs. his .244 mark at home. After a rough start to the season, Sanchez had a 1.65 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through four May starts. He has posted a 3.09 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through four June starts. Washington has won five of his last six starts.

As expected, Daniel Norris has had a below average season. He is saddled with a 4.69 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He has a paltry 2-6 record through 13 starts. Norris has allowed three runs or fewer in all but four of his starts this season. Norris has actually been worse at home this season. He holds a 5.10 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and is 1-3 through eight road starts. Detroit has lost six of his last eight starts. Washington holds the edge in the pitcher form arena. They hold the overall edge in the form department.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Trends
There are some interesting trends for this contest. Washington has won six of their last seven road games, and four of the last five against the AL Central. They have won nine of their last 13 against pitchers with a WHIP higher than 1.30. They have won seven of their last eight against teams with a winning percentage below .400. On the other side of things, they have dropped 11 of their last 16 interleague matchups. They have lost six of their last seven interleague games. Finally, they have lost 20 of their last 27 Friday games.

Detroit’s trends read as poorly as one may expect. They have dropped 37 of their last 54 interleague matchups. They have lost 37 of their last 52 Friday games. The Tigers have lost 11 of their last 15 interleague games against right-handed starting pitchers. They have lost 10 of their last 14 against pitchers with a WHIP above 1.30. Detroit has lost eight of their last 10 against the NL East and five of their last six series openers. They have dropped 26 of their last 33 against teams with a losing road record. Finally, they have dropped their last six interleague games. Washington holds the edge in the team trends department.

There are no pitching trends for Anibal Sanchez as he just joined the team this offseason. On the Tigers side, they have been very poor in Daniel Norris’ recent starts. They have lost 15 of his last 21 home starts and four of his last five Friday starts. The Tigers have lost four of his last five interleague starts. Finally, they have lost 10 of his last 11 starts on four days rest. Washington holds the edge in both team and pitching trends.

Edge: Washington Nationals

Line
The line in this contest provides much more value than one may have expected from two teams on very different paths at this point of the season. The line opened at +145 for Detroit and now sits at +140, and at +135 PointsBet. Washington at -160 looks to hold some solid value. They are sending the far superior pitcher to the mound even if an initial glance at the numbers does not suggest that. Sanchez has turned things around over the last two months, and as mentioned the Nationals have won five of his last six starts. There are also some trends that explain this line, namely the fact that Washington is winless in their last six meetings with the Tigers in Detroit. Take advantage of the form and trend edge and lock this one in as soon as you can.

Pick: Washington Nationals (-160)

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 23-21-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.