Top MLB Bet for June 3rd
A quiet Monday MLB slate leaves much to be desired for those looking for action. The night game looks like today’s marquee contest and provides both the most intrigue and the best potential values on either side of the play. We have two of the top 12 teams in our most recent power rankings doing battle. They will both be deploying pitchers who have had a string of strong starts. As such, this contest could very well start out as a pitcher’s duel before morphing into a run-scoring contest in the fifth or sixth inning. Let’s dive in and see which side presents a potential edge.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 33-26 | 5 | 4.86 | +21 |
| San Diego Padres | 30-29 | 11 | 3.93 | -28 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Aaron Nola | 6-0 | 4.18 | 1.48 |
| Eric Lauer | 4-4 | 4.45 | 1.26 |
Form
The Philadelphia Phillies are set to do battle with the San Diego Padres. The Phillies have been as strong as expected this season. They lead the NL East with a 33-26 record and have scored a rock solid 4.86 runs per game. They continue to score more runs than they give up and hold a positive run differential. The Phillies have won five of their last 10, but have dropped four straight. They have a 13-15 record on the road. The Phillies pitching has been better on the road so far this season. They have limited opponents to 4.04 runs per game when traveling.
The San Diego Padres have had an up and down season. They sit above .500 with a 30-29 record but continue to have issues scoring runs on a consistent basis. They are scoring the fifth fewest runs per game. The Padres are one of only six teams under the four runs per contest mark. The Padres were on a five-game winning streak but have now dropped five of their last seven games. They sit just ahead of the Phillies in team ERA at 4.10 per game. That number drops to top-tier 3.87 runs at home. Despite a winning record, the Padres have a 15-16 mark at home.
The Philadelphia Phillies will be sending the electric, but surprisingly inconsistent, Aaron Nola to the mound. San Diego will be countering with the surging Eric Lauer. Aaron Nola has a stellar 6-0 record through 12 starts. However, his ratios leave much to be desired. He currently holds a 4.18 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. Nola has given up three runs or less in all but three of his starts. The Phillies have won eight of his 12 starts, and six straight. Nola has struggled on the road this season. He holds a 5.85 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP on the road. He has, however, been strong at Petco over the course of his career. Nola has a 1-0 record and a 2.25 ERA in two starts in San Diego.
Eric Lauer has a solid 4-4 record through 11 starts. He has been hot as of late, as he has allowed just one run in three straight starts. Lauer has had some very impressive outings this season and has relinquished two runs or less in seven of his 11 outings. Most of Lauer’s struggles have come on the road this season. He has an excellent 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in six home starts. He has a 2-2 record at home. These two pitchers have both showed some inconsistency this season. Nola has been more consistent as of late and gets the slight nod in the pitching form department. The Phillies hold the edge in both team and pitcher form.
Edge: Philadelphia Phillies
Trends
There are not many notable team trends that we have not covered. The Phillies have won five of their last six series openers. The Padres have won four of their last five series openers. They have lost 11 of their last 14 home games against teams with a losing road record. Finally, they have lost four of their last five games against right-handed starting pitchers.
The pitching trends provide more intrigue. The Phillies have been on a roll in Aaron Nola’s recent starts. They are undefeated in his last six starts as well as his last eight starts against the NL West. They have won four of his last five starts against teams with winning records and are 6-2 in his last eight road starts. Finally, they have won five of his last seven road starts against teams with a winning record.
The Padres have been hot in the majority of Eric Lauer’s recent starts. They have won six of his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. They have won four of his last five home starts against teams with winning records. The Padres have won seven of his last nine series openers. Unfortunately, they have dropped four of his last five starts against the NL East. The Phillies hold the pitching trend edge, but it is closer than one may expect. The Phillies hold the overall edge due to both team and pitcher trends.
Edge: Philadelphia Phillies
Line
The line in this contest has already jumped. It opened at +105 on the Padres and has jumped to as high as +120, and currently sits at +115 at PointsBet. The Phillies currently sit a -136 at PointsBet and appear to be the safer play based on our form and trend analysis. Both pitchers have had excellent showings this season, so it’s likely that this game comes down to the bats. The Phillies have scored almost a full run more per game. The Padres score the fifth least runs per contest and are facing a top 10 pitching staff in terms of team ERA.
Philadelphia is the better team, is starting the better pitcher, and has been in better form recently. Eric Lauer may not be a household name, but he has been a very effective pitcher at times this season. Couple that with the fact that the Phillies have dropped five of their last six meetings in San Diego and you can understand why this line is so tight and opened at +105. The Phillies are still the pick here, as the Padres simply do not score enough runs on a regular basis. Keep this to a one unit play.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-136)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 22-13-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.