Top MLB Bet for May 1
With a handful of appealing betting options to choose from, I opted for the marquee interleague matchup of the day. Both teams have won 17 games and are scoring over five runs per contest. They are both sending a starting pitcher with an ERA below 4.00 to the mound. In such a tight contest that could go either way at an NL park, I will look for potential edges in the over/under trends.
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New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| New York Yankees | 17-12 | 1 | 5.37 | +35 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 17-13 | 18 | 5.26 | +22 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 2-2 | 3.60 | 1.29 |
| Merrill Kelly | 2-2 | 3.94 | 1.38 |
Form
The New York Yankees are set to square off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an afternoon (3:40 p.m. ET) interleague affair. Both teams have been in surprising form this season. The Yankees are 17-12 despite dealing with an excessive injury toll. The Diamondbacks are 17-13 on the season, but they have shown warts with a 6-7 home record. Both teams are knocking in runs, with the Yankees holding the slight edge. The Yankees also have a small advantage in runs allowed, giving them a superior scoring margin. Arizona has been on fire recently, winning 11 of its last 15 contests. New York is just as hot, winning 11 of its last 14. The Yankees hold the slight edge based on team form.
Today’s matchup features a pitching battle that may give us an opportunity in the line department. The Yankees will call on Masahiro Tanaka, and the Diamondbacks will counter with Merrill Kelly. Tanaka has looked locked in at times, allowing only one run in four of his six starts this season. He also, however, relinquished five runs apiece in his other two starts. A WHIP well above his career 1.11 clip indicates he has encountered some trouble allowing baserunners. Kelly has shown some promise this year as a 31-year-old rookie. He is 2-2 through five starts and struck out nine in eight innings of one-run ball in one of his losses against the Boston Red Sox. Yet he still holds an average 3.94 ERA and an unsightly 1.38 WHIP, so Tanaka gives the Yankees the edge in pitching form.
Trends
With an over/under line of 8.0, I will take a look at the total trends for this contest. The Yankees have scored 6.29 runs per game on the road. Arizona has scored 4.85 at home. The over has been hit in six of the Yankees’ last seven games and in four of their last five interleague contests. Eleven of their last 13 road games against teams with a winning record have reached the over. It was also hit in 10 of their last 12 games against a pitcher with a WHIP higher than 1.15. The over is 20-6 in their last 26 road games. Finally, the over is 8-2 in Tanaka’s last 10 starts and 16-6 in his last 22 Game 2s of a series.
On the other side of the coin, the under won out in 13 of the Yankees’ last 17 interleague games against a right-handed starting pitcher. It also paid off in 16 of their last 21 interleague games against a team with a winning record. It is 5-1-1 in Tanaka’s last seven road starts against a team with a winning record. The under triumphed in four of his last five interleague starts and seven of his last 10 starts against a team with a winning record.
The Diamondbacks’ trends provide a more definitive lean. The over panned out in three of their last five home games against a team with a winning record. This is where the notable over trends end. The under delivered in five of their last seven against the AL East and nine of their last 12 against a right-handed starting pitcher. It has been hit in three of their last five interleague games and nine of 13 overall. The under also prevailed in 11 of their last 15 interleague home games against a right-handed pitcher. Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the Yankees and Diamondbacks’ last seven meetings. New York’s trends suggest that the over is just as likely as the under. However, Arizona’s trends (and the head-to-head history) suggest a strong lean on the under is warranted.
Line
At first glance, the initial lean may be on the over. I will admit I thought the over may be the play here as well. The line in this contest opened at 8.5 and has already moved down to 8.0. The Diamondbacks notched a 3-1 victory behind Zack Greinke yesterday, and there are more trends in favor of the under than the over. The runs per game suggest the over, but pitchers’ ERAs indicate a slight value on the under even at the decreased 8.0. The 8.5 was a much more appealing line to attack, however, and serves as a reminder to lock in your plays as soon as possible. Regardless, the analysis has spoken. Pick the under today.
Pick: Under 8.0
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 11-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.