Top MLB Bet for May 10th

Today offers a mixed bag in terms of MLB betting options. There are some very appealing options, but Vegas is wise and has set the lines accordingly. In fact the most appealing game with a good value features two teams that sit last in their respective divisions. However these teams profile much differently. One team has the second best runs against per game in the league, and holds a +29 run differential. Not only that but the pitcher they are sending to the mound has been in All-Star form. The other team has not only scored less runs per game, but has a -29 run differential. Their starting pitcher started out strong, but was lit up by this very same team in his last start. In a contest that is uninspiring on the surface, the road team may have the edge due to superior pitching.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants

Team	Record	Power Ranking	Runs Scored	Differential
Cincinnati Reds	16-22	20	4.05	+23
San Francisco Giants	16-21	26	3.97	-29

 

Pitcher	Record	ERA	WHIP
Luis Castillo	3-1	1.97	0.97
Dereck Rodriguez	3-4	5.75	1.42

 
Form
The San Francisco Giants will square off with the Cincinnati Reds in a battle of last place teams. The Giants hold a 16-21 record and sit in last place in the NL West. They have lost three of their last five but split their recent series with the Reds. They are one of only seven teams in the league averaging less than four runs per game and have a run differential of -29. The Reds sit at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-22 record. They have scored just 4.05 runs per game, but sit pretty with a +23 run differential. Their differential suggests good times could be ahead for the Reds, especially when one considers their 3.41 runs against per game ranks second in the league. The Giants hold a slightly better winning percentage, but the Reds are the team in better form.

The San Francisco Giants will be sending the wildly inconsistent Dereck Rodriguez to the mound. The Cincinnati Reds will be countering with the red hot Luis Castillo. Dereck Rodriguez started the season strong but has fallen apart as of late. He allowed two runs or less in four of his first five starts but has allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in eight innings over his last two outings. Rodriguez has shown some flashes dating back to last season but has yet to put it all together. He holds a 3-4 record through seven starts and is saddled with a poor 5.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He was annihilated in his last start giving up four homers, and eight runs in five innings to these same Cincinnati Reds.

Luis Castillo has been on fire this season. He holds a sparkling 1.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP this season. He has an impressive 3-1 record through eight starts and has allowed two runs or less in all but one of them. His worst start of the season came against the Giants his last time out. He gave up four runs in seven innings. The Reds hold the edge in both pitcher form and team form.

Trends
As may be expected from two teams with losing records, there are more trends in support of a loss by these teams than a win. The Giants are undefeated in their last four games following a loss. They are an impressive 4-1 in their last five series openers. They hold the same record in their last five games against teams with a road winning percentage under .400. Unfortunately, that is where the positive trends end. They have lost 11 of their last 16 games against a right-handed starter, and are 2-6 in their last eight Friday games. They have lost 16 of their last 23 against a starter with a WHIP under 1.15. The Giants have lost 19 of their last 26 games against the NL Central.

The trends do not get any better in Dereck Rodriguez’s recent starts. The Giants have lost 15 of his last 17 starts, and 10 of his last 11 home starts, They are 2-6 in his last eight starts on five days of rest. Finally, they are winless in his last six starts that have come after games where the Giants have allowed five or more runs.

The Reds have lost 45 of their last 66 road games against teams with a losing record. They are 15-39 in their last 54 road games and have lost five of their last seven Friday games. They have won only six of their last 26 games against a starter with a WHIP over 1.30. The Reds have struggled for consistency lately and are winless in their last five games following a win. On the positive side, the Reds are undefeated in their last four contests against teams that have scored five or more runs in their previous contest.

They have won seven of Castillo’s last nine starts in series openers. They sit at the same mark in his last nine starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Finally, the Reds have won six of their last eight games against the Giants. The Reds hold the edge in the team and pitcher trends departments.

Line
The line in this contest has continued to climb since I started writing this. I initially chose this contest as a value due to the line, but a couple of hours later the line has jumped from +125 on the Giants to +144. The -160 is not as appealing as the initial line I chose this game for, but is still the top value of the day. This is a match that many would stay away from on paper, but Luis Castillo taking the mound makes this one interesting. The line was set correctly and the early money has moved it close to stay away territory. Jump on this line as soon as you can.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 15-11-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.